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  • The coronavirus takes away your freedom of speech

    May 4, 2020
    US politics

    Matt Taibbi:

    Earlier this week, Atlantic magazine – fast becoming the favored media outlet for self-styled intellectual elites of the Aspen Institute type – ran an in-depth article of the problems free speech pose to American society in the coronavirus era. The headline:

    Internet Speech Will Never Go Back to Normal

    In the debate over freedom versus control of the global network, China was largely correct, and the U.S. was wrong.

    Authored by a pair of law professors from Harvard and the University of Arizona, Jack Goldsmith and Andrew Keane Woods, the piece argued that the American and Chinese approaches to monitoring the Internet were already not that dissimilar:

    Constitutional and cultural differences mean that the private sector, rather than the federal and state governments, currently takes the lead in these practices… But the trend toward greater surveillance and speech control here, and toward the growing involvement of government, is undeniable and likely inexorable.

    They went on to list all the reasons that, given that we’re already on an “inexorable” path to censorship, a Chinese-style system of speech control may not be such a bad thing. In fact, they argued, a benefit of the coronavirus was that it was waking us up to “how technical wizardry, data centralization, and private-public collaboration can do enormous public good.”

    Perhaps, they posited, Americans could be moved to reconsider their “understanding” of the First and Fourth Amendments, as “the harms from digital speech” continue to grow, and “the social costs of a relatively open Internet multiply.”

    This interesting take on the First Amendment was the latest in a line of “Let’s rethink that whole democracy thing” pieces that began sprouting up in earnest four years ago. Articles with headlines like “Democracies end when they become too democratic” and “Too much of a good thing: why we need less democracy” became common after two events in particular: Donald Trump’s victory in the the Republican primary race, and the decision by British voters to opt out of the EU, i.e. “Brexit.”

    A consistent lament in these pieces was the widespread decline in respect for “experts” among the ignorant masses, better known as the people Trump was talking about when he gushed in February 2016, “I love the poorly educated!”

    The Atlantic was at the forefront of the argument that The People is a Great Beast, that cannot be trusted to play responsibly with the toys of freedom. A 2016 piece called “American politics has gone insane” pushed a return of the “smoke-filled room” to help save voters from themselves. Author Jonathan Rauch employed a metaphor that is striking in retrospect, describing America’s oft-vilified intellectual and political elite as society’s immune system:

    Americans have been busy demonizing and disempowering political professionals and parties, which is like spending decades abusing and attacking your own immune system. Eventually, you will get sick.

    The new piece by Goldsmith and Woods says we’re there, made literally sick by our refusal to accept the wisdom of experts. The time for asking the (again, literally) unwashed to listen harder to their betters is over. The Chinese system offers a way out. When it comes to speech, don’t ask: tell.


    As the Atlantic lawyers were making their case, YouTube took down a widely-circulated video about coronavirus, citing a violation of “community guidelines.”

    The offenders were Drs. Dan Erickson and Artin Massahi, co-owners of an “Urgent Care” clinic in Bakersfield, California. They’d held a presentation in which they argued that widespread lockdowns were perhaps not necessary, according to data they were collecting and analyzing.

    “Millions of cases, small amounts of deaths,” said Erickson, a vigorous, cheery-looking Norwegian-American who argued the numbers showed Covid-19 was similar to flu in mortality rate.  “Does [that] necessitate shutdown, loss of jobs, destruction of oil companies, furloughing doctors…? I think the answer is going to be increasingly clear.”

    The reaction of the medical community was severe. It was pointed out that the two men owned a clinic that was losing business thanks to the lockdown. The message boards of real E.R. doctors lit up with angry comments, scoffing at the doctors’ dubious data collection methods and even their somewhat dramatic choice to dress in scrubs for their video presentation.

    The American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) and American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) scrambled to issue a joint statement to “emphatically condemn” the two doctors, who “do not speak for medical society” and had released “biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests.”

    As is now almost automatically the case in the media treatment of any controversy, the story was immediately packaged for “left” and “right” audiences by TV networks. Tucker Carlson on Fox backed up the doctors’ claims, saying “these are serious people who’ve done this for a living for decades,” and YouTube and Google have “officially banned dissent.”

    Meanwhile, over on Carlson’s opposite-number channel, MSNBC, anchor Chris Hayes of the All In program reacted with fury to Carlson’s monologue:

    There’s a concerted effort on the part of influential people at the network that we at All In call Trump TV right now to peddle dangerous misinformation about the coronavirus… Call it coronavirus trutherism.

    Hayes, an old acquaintance of mine, seethed at what he characterized as the gross indifference of Trump Republicans to the dangers of coronavirus. “At the beginning of this horrible period, the president, along with his lackeys, and propagandists, they all minimized what was coming,” he said, sneering. “They said it was just like a cold or the flu.”

    He angrily demanded that if Fox acolytes like Carlson believed so strongly that society should be reopened, they should go work in a meat processing plant. “Get in there if you think it’s that bad. Go chop up some pork.”

    The tone of the many media reactions to Erickson, Carlson, Trump, Georgia governor Brian Kemp, and others who’ve suggested lockdowns and strict shelter-in-place laws are either unnecessary or do more harm than good, fits with what writer Thomas Frank describes as a new “Utopia of Scolding”:

    Who needs to win elections when you can personally reestablish the social order every day on Twitter and Facebook? When you can scold, and scold, and scold. That’s their future, and it’s a satisfying one: a finger wagging in some vulgar proletarian’s face, forever.

    In the Trump years the sector of society we used to describe as liberal America became a giant finger-wagging machine. The news media, academia, the Democratic Party, show-business celebrities and masses of blue-checked Twitter virtuosos became a kind of umbrella agreement society, united by loathing of Trump and fury toward anyone who dissented with their preoccupations.

    Because this Conventional Wisdom viewed itself as being solely concerned with the Only Important Thing, i.e. removing Trump, there was no longer any legitimate excuse for disagreeing with its takes on Russia, Julian Assange, Jill Stein, Joe Rogan, the 25th amendment, Ukraine, the use of the word “treason,” the removal of Alex Jones, the movie Joker, or whatever else happened to be the #Resistance fixation of the day.

    When the Covid-19 crisis struck, the scolding utopia was no longer abstraction. The dream was reality! Pure communism had arrived! Failure to take elite advice was no longer just a deplorable faux pas. Not heeding experts was now murder. It could not be tolerated. Media coverage quickly became a single, floridly-written tirade against “expertise-deniers.” For instance, the Atlantic headline on Kemp’s decision to end some shutdowns was, “Georgia’s Experiment in Human Sacrifice.”

    At the outset of the crisis, America’s biggest internet platforms – Facebook, Twitter, Google, LinkedIn, and Reddit – took an unprecedented step to combat “fraud and misinformation” by promising extensive cooperation in elevating “authoritative” news over less reputable sources.

    H.L. Mencken once said that in America, “the general average of intelligence, of knowledge, of competence, of integrity, of self-respect, of honor is so low that any man who knows his trade, does not fear ghosts, has read fifty good books, and practices the common decencies stands out as brilliantly as a wart on a bald head.”

    We have a lot of dumb people in this country. But the difference between the stupidities cherished by the Idiocracy set ingesting fish cleaner, and the ones pushed in places like the Atlantic, is that the jackasses among the “expert” class compound their wrongness by being so sure of themselves that they force others to go along. In other words, to combat “ignorance,” the scolders create a new and more virulent species of it: exclusive ignorance, forced ignorance, ignorance with staying power.

    The people who want to add a censorship regime to a health crisis are more dangerous and more stupid by leaps and bounds than a president who tells people to inject disinfectant. It’s astonishing that they don’t see this

    Journalists are professional test-crammers. Our job is to get an assignment on Monday morning and by Tuesday evening act like we’re authorities on intellectual piracy, the civil war in Yemen, Iowa caucus procedure, the coronavirus, whatever. We actually know jack: we speed-read, make a few phone calls, and in a snap people are inviting us on television to tell millions of people what to think about the complex issues of the world.

    When we come to a subject cold, the job is about consulting as many people who really know their stuff as quickly as possible and sussing out – often based on nothing more than hunches or impressions of the personalities involved – which set of explanations is most believable. Sportswriters who covered the Deflategate football scandal had to do this in order to explain the Ideal Gas Law, I had to do it to cover the subprime mortgage scandal, and reporters this past January and February had to do it when assigned to assess the coming coronavirus threat.

    It does not take that much work to go back and find that a significant portion of the medical and epidemiological establishment called this disaster wrong when they were polled by reporters back in the beginning of the year. Right-wingers are having a blast collecting the headlines, and they should, given the chest-pounding at places like MSNBC about others who “minimized the risk.” Here’s a brief sample:

    Get a Grippe, America: The flu is a much bigger threat than coronavirus, for now: Washington Post

    Coronavirus is scary, but the flu is deadlier, more widespread : USA Today

    Want to Protect Yourself From Coronavirus? Do the Same Things You Do Every Winter : Time

    Here’s my personal favorite, from Wired on January 29:

    We should de-escalate the war on coronavirus

    There are dozens of these stories and they nearly all contain the same elements, including an inevitable quote or series of quotes from experts telling us to calm the hell down. This is from the Time piece:

    “Good hand-washing helps. Staying healthy and eating healthy will also help,” says Dr. Sharon Nachman, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at New York’s Stony Brook Children’s Hospital. “The things we take for granted actually do work. It doesn’t matter what the virus is. The routine things work.”

    There’s a reason why journalists should always keep their distance from priesthoods in any field. It’s particularly in the nature of insular communities of subject matter experts to coalesce around orthodoxies that blind the very people in the loop who should be the most knowledgeable.

    “Experts” get things wrong for reasons that are innocent (they’ve all been taught the same incorrect thing in school) and less so (they have a financial or professional interest in denying the truth).

    On the less nefarious side, the entire community of pollsters in 2016 denounced as infamous the idea that Donald Trump could win the Republican nomination, let alone the general election. They believed that because they weren’t paying attention to voters (their ostensible jobs), but also because they’d never seen anything similar. In a more suspicious example, if you asked a hundred Wall Street analysts in September 2008 what caused the financial crisis, probably no more than a handful would have mentioned fraud or malfeasance.

    Both of the above examples point out a central problem with trying to automate the fact-checking process the way the Internet platforms have of late, with their emphasis on “authoritative” opinions.

    “Authorities” by their nature are untrustworthy. Sometimes they have an interest in denying truths, and sometimes they actually try to define truth as being whatever they say it is. “Elevating authoritative content” over independent or less well-known sources is an algorithmic take on the journalistic obsession with credentialing that has been slowly destroying our business for decades.

    The WMD fiasco happened because journalists listened to people with military ranks and titles instead of demanding evidence and listening to their own instincts. The same thing happened with Russiagate, a story fueled by intelligence “experts” with grand titles who are now proven to have been wrong to a spectacular degree, if not actually criminally liable in pushing a fraud.

    We’ve become incapable of talking calmly about possible solutions because we’ve lost the ability to decouple scientific or policy discussions, or simple issues of fact, from a political argument. Reporting on the Covid-19 crisis has become the latest in a line of moral manias with Donald Trump in the middle.

    Instead of asking calmly if hydroxychloroquine works, or if the less restrictive Swedish crisis response has merit, or questioning why certain statistical assumptions about the seriousness of the crisis might have been off, we’re denouncing the questions themselves as infamous. Or we’re politicizing the framing of stories in a way that signals to readers what their take should be before they even digest the material. “Conservative Americans see coronavirus hope in Progressive Sweden,” reads a Politico headline, as if only conservatives should feel optimism in the possibility that a non-lockdown approach might have merit! Are we rooting for such an approach to not work?

    From everything I’ve heard, talking to doctors and reading the background material, the Bakersfield doctors are probably not the best sources. But the functional impact of removing their videos (in addition to giving them press they wouldn’t otherwise have had) is to stamp out discussion of things that do actually need to be discussed, like when the damage to the economy and the effects of other crisis-related problems – domestic abuse, substance abuse, suicide, stroke, abuse of children, etc. – become as significant a threat to the public as the pandemic. We do actually have to talk about this. We can’t not talk about it out of fear of being censored, or because we’re confusing real harm with political harm.

    Turning ourselves into China for any reason is the definition of a cure being worse than the disease. The scolders who are being seduced by such thinking have to wake up, before we end up adding another disaster on top of the terrible one we’re already facing.

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  • While Gov. Nero fiddles …

    May 4, 2020
    Wisconsin business, Wisconsin politics

    Benjamin Yount:

    Wisconsin’s largest business groups are using such words as “devastating” and “extinction-level” to describe the economic problems created by the state’s coronavirus lockdown.

    Wisconsin’s Manufacturers and Commerce and the state’s Restaurant Association were just two of the groups pressing lawmakers to reopen the state on Thursday.

    The groups said many businesses cannot wait another month to reopen.

    Wisconsin Restaurant Association President Kristine Hillmer says half the state’s restaurants could close forever if the lockdown lasts longer.

    “Prior to the crisis, there were 12,796 eating and drink establishments in our state. We employed over 284,000 people, representing about 9 percent of people in our state,” Hillmer said. “That represented $10.1 billion in estimated sales in Wisconsin.”

    Hillmer said the numbers today are very different.

    “A survey conducted between April 10 and April 16 this year illustrates the devastating impact on our industry,” Hillmer said. “One hundred thirty-six thousand-plus restaurant employees have been laid off or furloughed since the beginning of the outbreak.”

    WMC’s Scott Manley said it is an economic imperative to reopen the state’s economy.

    “As we sit here, right now, we have 19 percent unemployment. That is twice as high as it was during the worst days of the Great Recession, Manley said. “We’ve got 450,000 people who’ve filed for unemployment claims since social distancing regulations took effect.”

    Manley added that most stores had seen their foot traffic cut in half, and restaurants and bars in the state have it worse than that.

    Governor Evers says he’s willing to talk about reopening the state, but wants to see a plan from Republicans first.

    Hillmer said that lawmakers and the governor should be working together, not squabbling.

    “It is urgent that we use this time to figure out how these businesses can reopen, safely,” Hillmer told lawmakers.

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  • Presty the DJ for May 4

    May 4, 2020
    Music

    This is 5/4 Day, so …

    (more…)

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  • Presty the DJ for May 3

    May 3, 2020
    Music

    The number one album today in 1975 was “Chicago VIII”:

    The number one single that day:

    (more…)

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  • Presty the DJ for May 2

    May 2, 2020
    media, Music

    Today is the 60th anniversary of what I used to consider the greatest radio station on the planet in its best format:

    (more…)

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  • The next Packer quarterback

    May 1, 2020
    Packers

    Chris Crouse:

    There have been mixed signals out of Green Bay since the team surprisingly drafted Jordan Love in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. The Packers appear to still be committed to Aaron Rodgers, for now. After examining his contract, it’s clear that Green Bay will have a window to potentially split with him after the 2021 season.

    As Spotrac details, Rodgers’ contract would leave teams a (somewhat) easier out in terms of dead cap space. The 2020 season has a cap hit that’s north of $21.6 million with a dead cap number of more than $51.1 million. That dead cap number drops to slightly more than $31.5 million in 2021, then $17.204 million and $2.852 million in 2022 and 2023.

    Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio tossed out the idea that the club may actually want Rodgers to possibly “ask for a divorce” at some point in the future. He cited the front office potentially seeing themselves in a similar situation that the Packers were in with Brett Favre, writing:

    Again, that’s possibly precisely what the Packers want. They knew how to get Brett Favre to retire in 2008 (i.e., ask him for a firm decision in February, when they knew he’d be inclined to walk away), and they know (or at least believe they know) how to get Rodgers to be the one to ask for a divorce.

    If that happens, which team would Rodgers angle for as a next destination? Perhaps no team is more equipped to thrive with Rodgers than the Denver Broncos – assuming they have an interest in making a deal down the line.

    John Elway once convinced Peyton Manning to play the second-leg of his career in Denver and it worked out. Peyton won his second Super Bowl, becoming the only quarterback in NFL history to win a ring with two separate franchises.

    Denver will be set up to make a similar pitch whenever Rodgers’ tenure in Green Bay is over. One big factor at the time will obviously be money and the salary cap situation, but a lot can happen over the coming seasons.

    Denver added several playmakers this offseason, which makes them an appealing option for any signal-caller (including second-year quarterback Drew Lock). Melvin Gordon was brought in to join Phillip Lindsay in the backfield, for starters. They drafted tight end Noah Fant last year, and this year, in addition to wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, the Broncos drafted K.J. Hamler as another explosive wideout to go with Courtland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton.

    “We’re going to have to score points to win in our division,” Elway said (via NBC Sports’ Peter King). “Obviously at 15 we were thrilled that Jeudy still was there. And going into round two, we were focused on Hamler. He’s explosive and really tough. It’s hard to go 80 yards in this league, and we feel like we drafted two guys who can. Kansas City has those guys, and the quarterback [Patrick Mahomes] is obviously going to be great for a long time.”

    As King wrote, NFL teams didn’t have a reliable 40-yard dash time for Hamler, though once they looked at the tape, it was clear that he was impressively fast.

    “He had a 100-yard kick return against Michigan,” Elway said, “and so we just figured we’d time him [in a 40-yard interval] on that play. We timed him at 3.93 in the 40, but of course he had a running start. He just has a different speed than anyone else. This has become such a speed game. Watch Kansas City. We love Courtland, we love Jeudy. Get Hamler in the slot against quarters coverage, releasing upfield at 4.3 or 4.32 speed, and that’s going to put a lot of pressure on the safeties, I know that.”

    As nice as the situation in Denver is, the New England Patriots can’t be counted out as a hypothetical future suitor.

    The Patriots do not have a clear-cut long-term answer at quarterback on the roster. Former fourth-round pick Jarrett Stidham could do his best Tom Brady impression on the field, but that’s a big TBD at this moment.

    It appears the Pats will enter the 2021 offseason with a need at quarterback. They could target the NFL draft if Stidham is unable to emerge from the pack. Perhaps 68-year-old Bill Belichick would like to groom someone he can coach into his late 70s. However, bringing in a quarterback who can offer three to five years of above-average play is undoubtedly the best option for the franchise.

    Will Rodgers shift over to the AFC? While there is strong competition for the conference title with teams like the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs, there isn’t a long list of AFC teams that appear to be perennial locks to make the playoffs. It may be an easier path than in the crowded NFC, though. Wherever Rodgers lands, he’d certainly target a home where obtaining his second Super Bowl ring is a realistic outcome from the moment he hypothetically signs.

    Bob McGinn, formerly of the Green Bay Press–Gazette and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

    The mere law of averages says that Love won’t have nearly the same career that Favre had and Rodgers is having. The other thing is that, in contrast to what fans of the old-style smash-mouth NFL think, running the ball first doesn’t make you an elite team anymore, in large part because running back are one of the least durable positions as far as length of NFL career.

    This certainly has reverberated throughout the sports world, in part because nothing else is going on. On the one hand Rodgers is going to retire at some point. He may want to play as long as Favre did, but given his lack of durability compared with Favre that seems unrealistic. On the other hand, if this story is legitimate, the apparent arrogance of LaFleur in thinking he can replace a Hall of Fame quarterback with no problem is pretty astonishing. One season does not make LaFleur a good coach, and questions are increasing about Gutekunst after a draft where most draft experts (such a “draft expert is”) are giving the Packers F grades.

    If Love can’t get the job done, well, there are plenty of candidates for GM and coach positions, and I’m sure some other team will hire Gutekunst and LaFleur for something.

     

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  • Breaking not-really-news

    May 1, 2020
    Wisconsin politics

    M.D. Kittle:

    Doubling down on its constitutionally suspect lockdown orders, the Evers administration and the liberal-led state Department of Justice are asking the Wisconsin Supreme Court to reject a lawsuit challenging the Democratic governor’s power grab. 

    The administration’s brief, filed by the previously invisible Attorney General Josh Kaul, is a fractured defense of executive overreach — as arrogant as it is petulant. 

    Kaul, who has been quick to accuse President Donald Trump of abuse of power, refuses to see the liberties fellow Democrat Evers has taken with Wisconsinites’ liberties during the COVID-19 outbreak. The attorney general, like the governor, believes a health crisis trumps the state and U.S. constitutions. 

    He argues for the “broad and well-established authority granted to the executive branch to respond to public health emergencies.” 

    “(The Republican-led Legislature) posit a fundamental reworking of how Wisconsin responds to a pandemic—in the midst of one—that is incompatible with the statutes, constitutional principles, and on-the-ground reality,” the motion argues. 

    Kaul fails to note that such powers are neither indefinite nor complete under Wisconsin law and, more so, the constitution. 

    When state Department of Health Services Secretary-designee Andrea Palm extended by a month Evers’ original stay-at-home edict, she surpassed the authority granted under statute, the Republican-led Legislature claims in its original petition, filed earlier this month. The Legislature asked the Supreme Court to issue an injunction against Palm’s longer lockdown, but it would allow a six-day stay so that DHS can work with lawmakers to come up with a reasonable plan to re-open Wisconsin. 

    On Tuesday, the Wisconsin Institute of Law & Liberty filed an amicus, or friend-of-the-court, brief on behalf of the Independent Business Association of Wisconsin and two small businesses — a Pleasant Prairie auto repair shop and a Grafton hair salon. The devastation caused by the lockdown orders have already surpassed the peak job losses of the Great Recession. 

    “Governor Evers and his administration have taken an overly expansive approach to how power and decision-making is made in Wisconsin,” said Rick Esenberg, WILL’s president and general counsel. “It is vital that the Court reestablishes the proper balance to the separation of powers and prohibit rule of the state by the executive branch without input from the people and oversight by the Legislature.”

    Wisconsin’s unemployment rate has surged to 18 percent, according to an analysis by the Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy (CROWE). 

    In his brief, Kaul argues the Evers administration knows best. And he suggests critics better play ball or more restrictive lockdowns could be in the offing. 

    “The task now is to get sufficiently ahead of COVID-19 so that Wisconsinites’ sacrifices are not for nothing, and that less restrictive containment strategies can be deployed: exactly what the Badger Bounce Back plan proposes,” the brief states, referring to Evers’ controversial plan to slowly dial back his broad, stay-at-home order. 

    Kaul points to early public support for the emergency lockdowns. That support has wained in recent weeks, however, particularly after Palm extended the order until May 26, attaching COVID-19 case-reduction goals that very likely could drag on the shutdown. 

    Evers’ office was flooded with calls and emails immediately after he announced the extension, “accusing him of destroying the state’s economy, begging him to let business re-open and warning that voters will punish him,” according to an Associated Press review. 

    “One woman pleaded with Evers to let her visit her husband in hospice before he dies of brain cancer. Other people demanded he let youth baseball resume and allow hair salons to re-open. A hairdresser wrote that Evers’ hair looks so good on TV he must be using a stylist in violation of his own order,” AP reported. 

    Those pleas have mostly fallen on deaf ears. Evers has ordered state parks, golf courses, and some “nonessential” service businesses can re-open. Many thousands more wait and worry whether they’ll survive the administration’s one-size-fits-all pandemic response. 

    As Wisconsin Spotlight reported this week, Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce has proposed a Back to Business plan, a comprehensive strategy to safely restart Wisconsin’s full economy. So far, it appears to be collecting dust on the governor’s desk. 

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  • Presty the DJ for May 1

    May 1, 2020
    Music

    The number one single today in 1965:

    Today in 1970, the Jimi Hendrix Experience played the first of its 13-show U.S. tour at the Milwaukee Auditorium:

    (more…)

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  • The cost (including deaths) of lockdowns

    April 30, 2020
    US politics, Wisconsin politics

    Vaughn Cordle of Ionosphere Capital:

    Refining our research thus far, we have determined that the covid-19 mortality, death and case-fatalities rates are significantly lower than experts and policymakers currently believe. We have estimated the economic costs for various lockdown timelines and when the recovery can be phased in. The point where layoff-related deaths exceed covid-19 lives saved is when we need to consider whether going on will be costlier than going back.

    We estimate an average household burden of $33,442 and $27,848 per employed due to the $4.3trn cost to save covid-19-related lives. The shorter the duration of the lockdown, the lower the cost and debt burden on the men and women who make our country great. This debt includes $3.8trn in deficit spending and $27trn in public debt, which, either separately or combined, will result in higher taxes, reduced social spending, lower job growth, GDP and living standards.

    Numbers are central tendency estimates which likely will not match actual results. However, they are more than sufficient to make our trade-off argument that covid lives saved should not be exceeded by lives ruined and lives lost.

    The cost in human lives

    On April 20, University of Washington (Institute of Health Metrics) Professor Ali Mokdad said, “The United States is already past the “peak” in terms of daily covid-19-related deaths.” The IMHE modelers recently revised projected coronavirus-related deaths sharply downward, estimating 60,300 coronavirus-related deaths by early August. The White House had previously said that there might be between 100,000 and 240,000 coronavirus-related deaths even if most people followed strict social distancing guidelines.

    Using our estimates, a 31% increase in unemployment (47m) with a lockdown extending through May will result in a doubling of drug overdoses (69,735) and an additional 15,137 suicides. Together, these account for 84,872 layoff-related deaths, in addition to the base-case estimates of 60,300 (with an estimated range of 34,063 to 140,381) coronavirus deaths predicted by the IMHE researchers.

    The grim calculus of joblessness

    According to data from the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Lancet, a medical journal, every one percent hike in unemployment will likely produce a 3.3 percent increase in drug-overdose deaths and a 0.99 percent increase in suicides.

    For the year ending February 2019 (NCHS), 69,029 people died of drug overdoses, almost 7 out of 10 the result of opioids. Suicide, the tenth leading cause of death in the United States, accounted for 48,344 deaths (CDC), more than twice the number of homicides (19,510).

    Lockdown-related deaths will likely exceed the base-case number of covid-19 deaths by 141%—and this offsets 60% of the highest estimate of 140,381 predicted by IMHE researchers.

    The number of layoff-related drug overdoses and suicide deaths will soar as lockdown durations grow, and in tandem with job losses, debt obligations and economic costs.

    Our base-case estimate is for 15 million unemployed by the end of 2020, assuming a phased-in recovery starting mid-May. Given the expected recovery, we now estimate 33,743 drug overdoses and 7,324 suicides, which sum to 41,067 layoff-related deaths. While not as grim, it increases the base-case estimate covid-19 deaths by 68%.

    We provide additional tables required to validate and support our trade-off conclusions in the following essay: The price of reducing needless deaths versus the price of COVID-19 lives saved: The grim calculus. The series of essays are from a longer covid study.

    No alt text provided for this image

    Although statistics for alcohol layoff-related deaths are not as strong, there is a robust correlation. For people aged 50–65, being unemployed is associated with increased drinking, mood swings, and depression, which highlights the need for prevention policies and interventions and to improve access to treatment services during an economic recession, especially for vulnerable groups such as those facing layoffs in middle age.

    Given the lockdown costs in lives and treasury, is it not common sense to say that the U.S. must go back to work, perhaps gradually, in phases. A mid-May unlock would reduce the economic cost by approximately $1.2trn, unemployment by 5.2 million, and reduce layoff-related deaths. If grocery stores and Home Depot can operate safely as essential businesses, so can many others. Like a critically ill patient, the economy cannot be on life support indefinitely. This is especially true when wealth destruction from a prolonged lockdown harms our ability to fund healthcare.

    With luck and ingenuity, scientists will develop a vaccine for the world’s people. For America’s economy, getting back to work is the best medicine. The point where layoff-related deaths exceed covid-19 lives saved is when we need to consider whether going on will be costlier than going back.

    Note: Donald McGregor’s The Coronavirus: The Health of Our Nation, Our Economy, and Our Liberties, a Delicate Balance is an excellent commentary about the devastating psychosocial impact of a prolonged pandemic lockdown.

    As predicted, police calls for domestic incidents are increasing.

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  • Appeal to authority

    April 30, 2020
    Wisconsin politics

    The office of Gov. Tony Evers issued this news release Thursday afternoon:

    Gov. Tony Evers announced today that dozens of organizations, which collectively represent more than one million Wisconsinites, voiced their support for the extension of Safer at Home in briefs filed with the Wisconsin Supreme Court. On April 21, 2020, Legislative Republicans asked the Court to block Safer at Home without offering any alternative plan to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has killed more than 55,000 Americans, and more than 200,000 people worldwide.
    “From nurses and doctors to pastors and community leaders, the message to state lawmakers and the Court is loud and clear: Safer at Home is saving lives,” said Gov. Evers. “This is an unprecedented outpouring of support, and I hope people in the State Capitol listen.”
    Organizations representing hundreds of thousands of Wisconsinites filed amicus briefs asking the Wisconsin Supreme Court to uphold the Evers Administration’s Safer at Home Order. Before the Safer at Home order, the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was doubling every 3.4 days, a rate similar to Italy and Spain, which have been devasted by COVID-19. With Safer at Home in place, the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 has doubled every 12.4 days. This “bending of the curve” has prevented Wisconsin hospitals from becoming overrun, and the first three weeks of Safer at Home is estimated to have saved at least 300 lives and perhaps as many as 1,400 lives in the fight against COVID-19. Continued adherence to science and advice of health professionals has the potential to save thousands more in Wisconsin alone.
    The following organizations and individuals filed briefs asking the Wisconsin Supreme Court to uphold Safer at Home:

    • Wisconsin Public Health Association, Wisconsin Nurses Association, Wisconsin Chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics, Wisconsin Association for Perinatal Care, My Choice Family Care – Care Wisconsin, and more than 50 doctors, nurses, pathologists, professors, and public health experts from around Wisconsin filed an amicus brief demonstrating the deadly nature of COVID-19 and the need for prompt, executive action to combat pandemics. Available here.
    • 24 nonpartisan community groups, membership and advocacy organizations, labor organizations, Native American tribes, and community service organizations located throughout Wisconsin, which collectively represent hundreds of thousands of Wisconsinites, filed a brief demonstrating the catastrophic impact lifting Safer at Home will have on Wisconsinites. Available here.

    Note that “nonpartisan” and “nonideological” are not synonyms.

    • The Wisconsin Association of Local Health Departments and Boards and more than 17 local officials and governments filed an amicus brief arguing that Safer at Home’s statewide approach is needed to combat COVID-19 and protect communities throughout Wisconsin. Available here.
    • The Wisconsin Council of Churches and dozens of pastors, priests, rabbis, and other religious leaders filed an amicus brief representing more than one million congregants, demonstrating the importance of Safer at Home to religious communities throughout Wisconsin. Available here.
    • 17 leading legal scholars filed an amicus brief showing that DHS’s pandemic powers are common throughout the country and that the Legislature’s lawsuit threatens the separation of powers in Wisconsin. Available here.
    • Legal Action Wisconsin, which represents low-income individuals and elderly persons throughout Wisconsin, filed an amicus brief arguing that the Wisconsin Legislature doesn’t have a basis to sue DHS. Available here.
    • Labor organizations representing teachers, nurses, and transit workers filed an amicus. Available here.

    Earlier this month, more than 200 businesses, city, county, and tribal government officials, medical professionals, and organizations representing everything from labor and educators to religious entities, to civil rights, to veterans affairs, signed a letter of support for Wisconsin’s Safer at Home efforts, which can be found here.
    In addition, Wisconsin healthcare organizations representing healthcare providers and professionals throughout the state wrote in strong support of extending Safer at Home. The organizations included: Wisconsin Medical Society, Wisconsin Nurses Association, Wisconsin Psychiatric Association, Greater Wisconsin Agency on Aging Resources, Wisconsin Chapter of the American College of Physicians, Wisconsin Chapter of the American College of Emergency Physicians, Wisconsin Academy of Family Physicians, Wisconsin Radiological Society, and Wisconsin Chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics.

    All this means is that every left-wing group and every pro-government group loves Safer at Home because it maximizes their political power. Or, as put in South Park…

    I got into an argument with the DJ and left-wing pundit who calls himself Sly about how Evers is polling. I couldn’t care less how this polls. Right is right, and wrong is wrong, and Evers and everyone who supports him is dead wrong. Perhaps it will take their own financial destitution for them to grasp that.

     

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Steve Prestegard.com: The Presteblog

The thoughts of a journalist/libertarian–conservative/Christian husband, father, Eagle Scout and aficionado of obscure rock music. Thoughts herein are only the author’s and not necessarily the opinions of his family, friends, neighbors, church members or past, present or future employers.

  • Steve
    • About, or, Who is this man?
    • Facebook
    • Twitter
    • Adventures in ruralu0026nbsp;inkBack in June 2009, I was driving somewhere through a rural area. And for some reason, I had a flashback to two experiences in my career about that time of year many years ago. In 1988, eight days after graduating from the University of Wisconsin, I started work at the Grant County Herald Independent in Lancaster as a — well, the — reporter. Four years after that, on my 27th birthday, I purchased, with a business partner, the Tri-County Press in Cuba City, my first business venture. Both were experiences about which Wisconsin author Michael Perry might write. I thought about all this after reading a novel, The Deadline, written by a former newspaper editor and publisher. (Now who would write a novel about a weekly newspaper?) As a former newspaper owner, I picked at some of it — why finance a newspaper purchase through the bank if the seller is willing to finance it? Because the mean bank lender is a plot point! — and it is much more interesting than reality, but it is very well written, with a nicely twisting plot, and quite entertaining, again more so than reality. There is something about that first job out of college that makes you remember it perhaps more…
    • Adventures in radioI’ve been in the full-time work world half my life. For that same amount of time I’ve been broadcasting sports as a side interest, something I had wanted to since I started listening to games on radio and watching on TV, and then actually attending games. If you ask someone who’s worked in radio for some time about the late ’70s TV series “WKRP in Cincinnati,” most of them will tell you that, if anything, the series understated how wacky working in radio can be. Perhaps the funniest episode in the history of TV is the “WKRP” episode, based on a true story, about the fictional radio station’s Thanksgiving promotion — throwing live turkeys out of a helicopter under the mistaken belief that, in the words of WKRP owner Arthur Carlson, “As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly.” [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ST01bZJPuE0] I’ve never been involved in anything like that. I have announced games from the roofs of press boxes (once on a nice day, and once in 50-mph winds), from a Mississippi River bluff (more on that later), and from the front row of the second balcony of the University of Wisconsin Fieldhouse (great view, but not a place to go if…
    • “Good morning/afternoon/evening, ________ fans …”
    • My biggest storyEarlier this week, while looking for something else, I came upon some of my own work. (I’m going to write a blog someday called “Things I Found While Looking for Something Else.” This is not that blog.) The Grant County Sheriff’s Department, in the county where I used to live, has a tribute page to the two officers in county history who died in the line of duty. One is William Loud, a deputy marshal in Cassville, shot to death by two bank robbers in 1912. The other is Tom Reuter, a Grant County deputy sheriff who was shot to death at the end of his 4 p.m.-to-midnight shift March 18, 1990. Gregory Coulthard, then a 19-year-old farmhand, was convicted of first-degree intentional homicide and is serving a life sentence, with his first eligibility for parole on March 18, 2015, just 3½ years from now. I’ve written a lot over the years. I think this, from my first two years in the full-time journalism world, will go down as the story I remember the most. For journalists, big stories contain a paradox, which was pointed out in CBS-TV’s interview of Andy Rooney on his last “60 Minutes” Sunday. Morley Safer said something along the line…
  • Food and drink
    • The Roesch/Prestegard familyu0026nbsp;cookbookFrom the family cookbook(s) All the families I’m associated with love to eat, so it’s a good thing we enjoy cooking. The first out-of-my-house food memory I have is of my grandmother’s cooking for Christmas or other family occasions. According to my mother, my grandmother had a baked beans recipe that she would make for my mother. Unfortunately, the recipe seems to have  disappeared. Also unfortunately, my early days as a picky, though voluminous, eater meant I missed a lot of those recipes made from such wholesome ingredients as lard and meat fat. I particularly remember a couple of meals that involve my family. The day of Super Bowl XXXI, my parents, my brother, my aunt and uncle and a group of their friends got together to share lots of food and cheer on the Packers to their first NFL title in 29 years. (After which Jannan and I drove to Lambeau Field in the snow,  but that’s another story.) Then, on Dec. 31, 1999, my parents, my brother, my aunt and uncle and Jannan and I (along with Michael in utero) had a one-course-per-hour meal to appropriately end years beginning with the number 1. Unfortunately I can’t remember what we…
    • SkålI was the editor of Marketplace Magazine for 10 years. If I had to point to one thing that demonstrates improved quality of life since I came to Northeast Wisconsin in 1994, it would be … … the growth of breweries and  wineries in Northeast Wisconsin. The former of those two facts makes sense, given our heritage as a brewing state. The latter is less self-evident, since no one thinks of Wisconsin as having a good grape-growing climate. Some snobs claim that apple or cherry wines aren’t really wines at all. But one of the great facets of free enterprise is the opportunity to make your own choice of what food and drink to drink. (At least for now, though some wish to restrict our food and drink choices.) Wisconsin’s historically predominant ethnic group (and our family’s) is German. Our German ancestors did unfortunately bring large government and high taxes with them, but they also brought beer. Europeans brought wine with them, since they came from countries with poor-quality drinking water. Within 50 years of a wave of mid-19th-century German immigration, brewing had become the fifth largest industry in the U.S., according to Maureen Ogle, author of Ambitious Brew: The Story of American Beer. Beer and wine have…
  • Wheels
    • America’s sports carMy birthday in June dawned without a Chevrolet Corvette in front of my house. (The Corvette at the top of the page was featured at the 2007 Greater Milwaukee Auto Show. The copilot is my oldest son, Michael.) Which isn’t surprising. I have three young children, and I have a house with a one-car garage. (Then again, this would be more practical, though a blatant pluck-your-eyes-out violation of the Corvette ethos. Of course, so was this.) The reality is that I’m likely to be able to own a Corvette only if I get a visit from the Corvette Fairy, whose office is next door to the Easter Bunny. (I hope this isn’t foreshadowing: When I interviewed Dave Richter of Valley Corvette for a car enthusiast story in the late great Marketplace Magazine, he said that the most popular Corvette in most fans’ minds was a Corvette built during their days in high school. This would be a problem for me in that I graduated from high school in 1983, when no Corvette was built.) The Corvette is one of those cars whose existence may be difficult to understand within General Motors Corp. The Corvette is what is known as a “halo car,” a car that drives people into showrooms, even if…
    • Barges on fouru0026nbsp;wheelsI originally wrote this in September 2008.  At the Fox Cities Business Expo Tuesday, a Smart car was displayed at the United Way Fox Cities booth. I reported that I once owned a car into which trunk, I believe, the Smart could be placed, with the trunk lid shut. This is said car — a 1975 Chevrolet Caprice coupe (ours was dark red), whose doors are, I believe, longer than the entire Smart. The Caprice, built down Interstate 90 from us Madisonians in Janesville (a neighbor of ours who worked at the plant probably helped put it together) was the flagship of Chevy’s full-size fleet (which included the stripper Bel Air and middle-of-the-road Impala), featuring popular-for-the-time vinyl roofs, better sound insulation, an upgraded cloth interior, rear fender skirts and fancy Caprice badges. The Caprice was 18 feet 1 inch long and weighed 4,300 pounds. For comparison: The midsize Chevrolet of the ear was the Malibu, which was the same approximate size as the Caprice after its 1977 downsizing. The compact Chevrolet of the era was the Nova, which was 200 inches long — four inches longer than a current Cadillac STS. Wikipedia’s entry on the Caprice has this amusing sentence: “As fuel economy became a bigger priority among Americans…
    • Behind the wheel
    • Collecting only dust or rust
    • Coooooooooooupe!
    • Corvettes on the screen
    • The garage of misfit cars
    • 100 years (and one day) of our Chevrolets
    • They built Excitement, sort of, once in a while
    • A wagon by any otheru0026nbsp;nameFirst written in 2008. You will see more don’t-call-them-station-wagons as you drive today. Readers around my age have probably had some experience with a vehicle increasingly rare on the road — the station wagon. If you were a Boy Scout or Girl Scout, or were a member of some kind of youth athletic team, or had a large dog, or had relatives approximately your age, or had friends who needed to be transported somewhere, or had parents who occasionally had to haul (either in the back or in a trailer) more than what could be fit inside a car trunk, you (or, actually, your parents) were the target demographic for the station wagon. “Station wagons came to be like covered wagons — so much family activity happened in those cars,” said Tim Cleary, president of the American Station Wagon Owners Association, in Country Living magazine. Wagons “were used for everything from daily runs to the grocery store to long summer driving trips, and while many men and women might have wanted a fancier or sportier car, a station wagon was something they knew they needed for the family.” The “station wagon” originally was a vehicle with a covered seating area to take people between train stations…
    • Wheels on theu0026nbsp;screenBetween my former and current blogs, I wrote a lot about automobiles and TV and movies. Think of this post as killing two birds (Thunderbirds? Firebirds? Skylarks?) with one stone. Most movies and TV series view cars the same way most people view cars — as A-to-B transportation. (That’s not counting the movies or series where the car is the plot, like the haunted “Christine” or “Knight Rider” or the “Back to the Future” movies.) The philosophy here, of course, is that cars are not merely A-to-B transportation. Which disqualifies most police shows from what you’re about to read, even though I’ve watched more police video than anything else, because police cars are plain Jane vehicles. The highlight in a sense is in the beginning: The car chase in my favorite movie, “Bullitt,” featuring Steve McQueen’s 1968 Ford Mustang against the bad guys’ 1968 Dodge Charger: [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMc2RdFuOxIu0026amp;fmt=18] One year before that (but I didn’t see this until we got Telemundo on cable a couple of years ago) was a movie called “Operación 67,” featuring (I kid you not) a masked professional wrestler, his unmasked sidekick, and some sort of secret agent plot. (Since I don’t know Spanish and it’s not…
    • While riding in my Cadillac …
  • Entertainments
    • Brass rocksThose who read my former blog last year at this time, or have read this blog over the past months, know that I am a big fan of the rock group Chicago. (Back when they were a rock group and not a singer of sappy ballads, that is.) Since rock music began from elements of country music, jazz and the blues, brass rock would seem a natural subgenre of rock music. A lot of ’50s musical acts had saxophone players, and some played with full orchestras … [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CPS-WuUKUE] … but it wasn’t until the more-or-less simultaneous appearances of Chicago and Blood Sweat u0026amp; Tears on the musical scene (both groups formed in 1967, both had their first charting singles in 1969, and they had the same producer) that the usual guitar/bass/keyboard/drum grouping was augmented by one or more trumpets, a sax player and a trombone player. While Chicago is my favorite group (but you knew that already), the first brass rock song I remember hearing was BSu0026amp;T’s “Spinning Wheel” — not in its original form, but on “Sesame Street,” accompanied by, yes, a giant spinning wheel. [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi9sLkyhhlE] [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxWSOuNsN20] [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9U34uPjz-g] I remember liking Chicago’s “Just You ‘n Me” when it was released as a single, and…
    • Drive and Eat au0026nbsp;RockThe first UW home football game of each season also is the opener for the University of Wisconsin Marching Band, the world’s finest college marching band. (How the UW Band has not gotten the Sudler Trophy, which is to honor the country’s premier college marching bands, is beyond my comprehension.) I know this because I am an alumnus of the UW Band. I played five years (in the last rank of the band, Rank 25, motto: “Where Men Are Tall and Run-On Is Short”), marching in 39 football games at Camp Randall Stadium, the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome in Minneapolis, Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Memorial Stadium at the University of Illinois (worst artificial turf I had ever seen), the University of Nevada–Las Vegas’ Sam Boyd Silver Bowl, the former Dyche Stadium at Northwestern University, five high school fields and, in my one bowl game, Legion Field in Birmingham, Ala., site of the 1984 Hall of Fame Bowl. The UW Band was, without question, the most memorable experience of my college days, and one of the most meaningful experiences of my lifetime. It was the most physical experience of my lifetime, to be sure. Fifteen minutes into my first Registration…
    • Keep on rockin’ in the freeu0026nbsp;worldOne of my first ambitions in communications was to be a radio disc jockey, and to possibly reach the level of the greats I used to listen to from WLS radio in Chicago, which used to be one of the great 50,000-watt AM rock stations of the country, back when they still existed. (Those who are aficionados of that time in music and radio history enjoyed a trip to that wayback machine when WLS a Memorial Day Big 89 Rewind, excerpts of which can be found on their Web site.) My vision was to be WLS’ afternoon DJ, playing the best in rock music between 2 and 6, which meant I wouldn’t have to get up before the crack of dawn to do the morning show, yet have my nights free to do whatever glamorous things big-city DJs did. Then I learned about the realities of radio — low pay, long hours, zero job security — and though I have dabbled in radio sports, I’ve pretty much cured myself of the idea of working in radio, even if, to quote WAPL’s Len Nelson, “You come to work every day just like everybody else does, but we’re playing rock ’n’ roll songs, we’re cuttin’ up.…
    • Monday on the flight line, not Saturday in the park
    • Music to drive by
    • The rock ofu0026nbsp;WisconsinWikipedia begins its item “Music of Wisconsin” thusly: Wisconsin was settled largely by European immigrants in the late 19th century. This immigration led to the popularization of galops, schottisches, waltzes, and, especially, polkas. [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yl7wCczgNUc] So when I first sought to write a blog piece about rock musicians from Wisconsin, that seemed like a forlorn venture. Turned out it wasn’t, because when I first wrote about rock musicians from Wisconsin, so many of them that I hadn’t mentioned came up in the first few days that I had to write a second blog entry fixing the omissions of the first. This list is about rock music, so it will not include, for instance, Milwaukee native and Ripon College graduate Al Jarreau, who in addition to having recorded a boatload of music for the jazz and adult contemporary/easy listening fan, also recorded the theme music for the ’80s TV series “Moonlighting.” Nor will it include Milwaukee native Eric Benet, who was for a while known more for his former wife, Halle Berry, than for his music, which includes four number one singles on the Ru0026amp;B charts, “Spend My Life with You” with Tamia, “Hurricane,” “Pretty Baby” and “You’re the Only One.” Nor will it include Wisconsin’s sizable contributions to big…
    • Steve TV: All Steve, All the Time
    • “Super Steve, Man of Action!”
    • Too much TV
    • The worst music of allu0026nbsp;timeThe rock group Jefferson Airplane titled its first greatest-hits compilation “The Worst of Jefferson Airplane.” Rolling Stone magazine was not being ironic when it polled its readers to decide the 10 worst songs of the 1990s. I’m not sure I agree with all of Rolling Stone’s list, but that shouldn’t be surprising; such lists are meant for debate, after all. To determine the “worst,” songs appropriate for the “Vinyl from Hell” segment that used to be on a Madison FM rock station, requires some criteria, which does not include mere overexposure (for instance, “Macarena,” the video of which I find amusing since it looks like two bankers are singing it). Before we go on: Blog posts like this one require multimedia, so if you find a song you hate on this blog, I apologize. These are also songs that I almost never listen to because my sound system has a zero-tolerance policy — if I’m listening to the radio or a CD and I hear a song I don’t like, it’s, to quote Bad Company, gone gone gone. My blonde wife won’t be happy to read that one of her favorite ’90s songs, 4 Non Blondes’ “What’s Up,” starts the list. (However,…
    • “You have the right to remain silent …”
  • Madison
    • Blasts from the Madison media past
    • Blasts from my Madison past
    • Blasts from our Madison past
    • What’s the matter with Madison?
    • Wisconsin – Madison = ?
  • Sports
    • Athletic aesthetics, or “cardinal” vs. “Big Red”
    • Choose your own announcer
    • La Follette state 1982 (u0022It was 30 years ago todayu0022)
    • The North Dakota–Wisconsin Hockey Fight of 1982
    • Packers vs. Brewers
  • Hall of Fame
    • The case(s) against teacher unions
    • The Class of 1983
    • A hairy subject, or face the face
    • It’s worse than you think
    • It’s worse than you think, 2010–11 edition
    • My favorite interview subject of all time
    • Oh look! Rural people!
    • Prestegard for president!
    • Unions vs. the facts, or Hiding in plain sight
    • When rhetoric goes too far
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