Based on the latest analysis from America’s leading public health experts, politicians can stop comparing Covid-19 to World War II. But can their war on the U.S. economy be halted in time to prevent irreparable damage?
The good news on lower expected virus mortality arrived at Wednesday’s White House coronavirus task force briefing. Here’s an excerpt from the official transcript:
Q Last week, your top experts were saying that we should expect 100,000 to 240,000 deaths in this country. You’ve been talking about how it looks like maybe things are plateauing. Are these numbers now being revised downward? I know you don’t want people to stop social distancing and that sort of thing, but what can you tell us about the numbers? Are they being revised down?
President Donald Trump responded that his impression was that current expectations were for lower mortality numbers and then he deferred to others on the stage. Dr. Deborah Birx said:
We believe that our healthcare delivery system in the United States is quite extraordinary. I know many of you are watching the Act Now model and the IHME model from — and they have consistently decreased the number, the mortality from over almost 90,000 or 86,000, down to 81,000 and now down to 61,000. That is modeled on what America is doing. That’s what’s happening.
It just so happens that 61,000 is exactly the number of deaths that the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention attributes to the 2017-2018 flu season. As much time as media folk spend on the differences between coronavirus and the flu, perhaps they should also spend some time discussing similarities.
More good news on the 2020 coronavirus season is that there’s reason to believe Americans seek to avoid infection even when the government isn’t forcing them. Added Dr. Birx:
I think what has been so remarkable, I think to those of us who have been in the science fields for so long, is how important behavioral change is and how amazing Americans are in adapting to and following through on these behavioral changes. And that’s what’s changing the rate of new cases, and that’s what will change the mortality going forward, because now we’re into the time period of full mitigation that should be reflected within the coming weeks of decreasing mortality. I mean, that’s what we really hope to see… we are still in awe, really, of the American people’s strength in this and following through.
CDC Director Robert Redfield lauded “the commitment of the American people” and said:
You know, a lot of us have always had challenges of changing behavior, whether it’s exercising regularly or different habits with smoking, when it — when it affects us.
What’s been remarkable to watch here is how the American public has changed their behavior when it protects the vulnerable.
Now government needs to get out of the way and let the American people protect those vulnerable to the virus—as well as the surging population of people who are vulnerable to government-created poverty. The Journal’s Sarah Chaney and David Harrison report:
A record 7.5 million Americans were receiving unemployment benefits at the end of March as the coronavirus pandemic continued to hit the U.S. labor market.
The Labor Department reported Thursday that another 6.6 million had submitted claims in the week ended April 4 after reaching a record 6.9 million revised figure from a week earlier. Claims were hovering at just over 200,000 a week before the coronavirus-related shutdowns put millions of people out of work in mid-March.
Ms. Chaney and Mr. Harrison note that the situation is even worse than it appears because “states are still addressing backlogs of claims. Many laid-off Americans have been unsuccessful in applying for unemployment insurance because state labor department websites are freezing and their phone lines are inundated with inquiries.” The Journal report continues:
The steep rise in joblessness is keeping job-training centers like Goodwill in Fort Worth, Texas, busy.
“People are calling in, and they’re like, ‘I need a job. I need it right now. I’ve got to feed my kids,’” said Romney Guy, vice president of workforce development at Goodwill in Fort Worth.
The need to feed kids is driving a horrifying surge in demand for another critical service. Nicholas Kulish reports in the New York Times:
Demand for food assistance is rising at an extraordinary rate, just as the nation’s food banks are being struck by shortages of both donated food and volunteer workers.
Uniformed guardsmen help “take the edge off” at increasingly tense distributions of boxes filled with cans of chicken noodle soup, tuna fish, and pork and beans, said Mike Manning, the chief executive at the Greater Baton Rouge Food Bank. “Their presence provides safety for us during distributions.”
Mr. Kulish adds:
The coronavirus is everywhere in America, and so is the hunger. More than a million people have viewed drone footage of a miles-long line of cars waiting for food last week along a bend in the Monongahela River leading to the Greater Pittsburgh Community Food Bank… Tini Mason, 44, was in one of those cars, making his first-ever trip to a food bank. “We have to stretch every can, every package, everything that we have, because we don’t know what’s around the corner,” he said in a telephone interview.
Mr. Mason lost his job as a cook shortly before the outbreak took hold. The career office where he had been looking for work has closed its doors, and he is still waiting for his unemployment benefits to come through. His partner, Crystal Stewart, 49, lost her job at a Residence Inn by Marriott, then briefly found work at a supermarket. But she developed a cough and was forced to isolate while awaiting the results of a swab test. (Her test has since come back negative.)
Do we need to see a surge in U.S. malnutrition cases before governors and mayors will reconsider their shutdown orders? Model that.
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No comments on The real COVID-19 disaster, and it’s not getting sick
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By now you’ve heard that this is a time for “bold, persistent experimentation,” just like during the Great Depression. Let’s leave aside the fact that President Franklin Roosevelt’s constant tinkering and overhauling of the economy didn’t work anything like intended (as UCLA economic historian Lee Ohanian and others such as Amity Shlaes have argued, FDR’s policies prolonged the Depression by years).
President Donald Trump is in fact conducting a bold, persistent, real-time experiment in radical transparency by holding multi-hour-long press conferences every single day. During these things, which are being carried by various broadcast TV and radio stations and cable news channels, Trump, Vice President Mike Pence, and key members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, such as National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Anthony Fauci and Coronavirus Response Coordinator Deborah Birx, answer all questions. The exchanges are often heated and ugly, and the many moods of Donald Trump—most of them unattractive—are on full display.
But the response from the press itself is instructive. As Politico‘s Jack Shafer has written recently, for much of Trump’s tenure, the media complained that the president didn’t make himself or his surrogates available enough to the press. Indeed, when Trump’s press secretary, Stephanie Grisham, stepped down two days ago, The Washington Post led its announcement with the comment that she “is leaving the job after eight months during which she held no regular press briefings of the sort that once defined the position.” As if the public didn’t have a good read on what the president was thinking or doing, right?
And what was the response when Trump started showing up for his closeup every day? Elite press critics denounced Trump and especially the cable networks for actually carrying the press conferences. From Shafer:
Leading the pack of objectors are journalist James Fallows and J-school prof Jay Rosen, who would have the cable networks stop airing Trump’s briefings live because they’re unfiltered propaganda. Fallows has even circulated a Twitter petition backing their proposal. Washington Post media columnist Margaret Sullivan, MSNBC anchor Rachel Maddow, and others concur. Meanwhile, journalist Jonathan Alter and broadcaster Soledad O’Brien want the political press corps, which ordinarily dominate the briefings, to step aside and let science and health reporters take the lead in questioning the president at these briefings.
A progressive press watchdog group even unsuccessfully petitioned the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), which has jurisdiction to regulate content on over-the-air radio and TV programs, to force “broadcasters either stop airing them or ‘put those lies in context with disclaimers noting that they may be untrue and are unverified.’”
It’s worth pointing out, as my colleague Elizabeth Nolan Brown did earlier today, that the briefings don’t seem to be helping Trump with the electorate. Recent polls “found overall disapproval for Trump’s pandemic performance stands at 52 percent, up from 48 percent in early March, and 55 percent of Americans polled said Trump ‘could be doing more to fight the outbreak.’”
The White House is publishing a daily transcript of the press briefings, creating a public record of everything Trump and his top advisers say (go here for the archive). If you scroll through them, you’ll find the president doesn’t shy away from discussing the number of expected deaths, the disparate impact of coronavirus on blacks, what might or might not come next, and many other issues. It isn’t his fault that the press keeps asking stupid questions, such as yesterday’s moronic-yet-widely-discussed query about a pardon for Joe Exotic, the main figure in the Netflix series Tiger King.
If Trump’s daily press briefings are disturbing, it’s because of what they reveal, not what they obscure. We are in a moment when government at virtually every level—but certainly at the federal level—first failed to protect public health and then exacerbated problems with subsequent policies that banned non-state responses to the pandemic. Beyond issues of health, the federal government has, with near-unanimity, signed off on an intervention into the economy that is unprecedented in peacetime. Trust and confidence in the government were at historic lows when Trump took office—I’d argue that his election was partly an effect of such attitudes—and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon.
To his credit, Trump isn’t hiding in the shadows. If Trump’s answers are unsatisfying, perhaps it’s because nobody in Washington has good answers right now.
The news conference in which Evers announced his Safer at Home order was instructive. The invited media types (which, again, did not include weekly newspapers, except for those who were tipped off) were allowed one question and no follow-ups. Evers deferred repeatedly to Andrea Palm, acting secretary of the state Department Human Services (a sociology graduate, by the way, not a person with any medical background), or to Evers’ legal counsel. That was necessary because Evers announced the order without very many details about what the order would allow or forbid, even at the news conference.
I believe that the Safer at Home order included the news media (which are as capable of spreading COVID-19 as anyone else) for the purpose of co-opting the news media so the news media wouldn’t ask inconvenient questions like:- Why, three days after Evers said a stay-at-home order wouldn’t be necessary, did Evers announce a stay-at-home order? What changed in three days?
- Why does Evers’ Safer at Home order treat every part of the state the same when the virus is clearly more prevalent in two areas — Milwaukee and Dane counties — than anywhere else in the state?
- On what grounds were certain businesses termed “essential” and others termed “non-essential”?
- On what grounds were churches banned from holding services? Did Evers get guidance from any legal counsel as to whether banning church services is constitutional?
- Who in DHS is giving guidance to Evers on public health actions to take? (And the side question: What does DHS consider a coronavirus death?)
All of those are questions that should be asked, but are not being asked, of the governor, by any news media outlet, regardless of that media outlet’s ideological worldview. The question that also should be asked of legislative leaders is when is the Legislature going to vote on Evers’ edicts.
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Michael Smith:
The pandemic is over.
How do I know?
It is no longer a useful tool to frighten the weak minded. Even the weak minded can understand numbers like these:
3 weeks ago: 2 million will die! The China’s data is the gold standard on which to base our models. Look at Italy!
2 weeks ago: 240,000 will die! Well, China’s data might be more like tin or copper and Italy is more or less just making it up. We could be off a little.
1 week ago: OK, maybe it is 100,000. Models are hard, you know – and maybe China was lying after all.
Today: Oops. My bad. maybe 61,000 – maybe less. I guess it is like the flu after all. And by the way, we’re like Italy – if anybody could spell COVID-19 before they died, we put them on the list. Sorry we destroyed the economy, by the way.
Even a progressive moron can understand that 60,000 is less than 2 million – well, those in the media might not be able to do so…
I know it is over because the preferred narrative is switching from “We’re all in this together!” to “You know, that virus is really pretty racist after all. Hydroxychloroquine won’t cure it but I’ll bet more spending and some reparations would!”
The minute these morons go all Social Justice Warrior over a medical issue, you know they are feeling pretty safe.
Over.
Done and dusted.
Or was it ever a real problem?
Apparently not, based on the behavior of certain politicians. One of this blog’s maxims is that you know it’s a crisis when people in authority act like it’s a crisis. You certainly can’t say that about Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, can you?
But what do the numbers say? The Recall Tony Evers Facebook page points out:
Do you know what is today? Let me help you – it is the day that our Wisconsin DHS predicted we would hit 22,000 positive cases of coronavirus and between 440-1,500 deaths. … This was predicted by DHS Secretary-Designee Andrea Palm on March 24th.
The totals, as of yesterday, were 2,756 positive tests, 790 hospitalizations, and 99 deaths. And 30,115 negative tests. Given the trend (around 200 new cases per day) the 22,000 mark would not be reached until the middle of July … if that ever happens.
How can DHS be so far off? Bill Osmulski:
Wisconsin did not hit 22,000 positive cases of coronavirus nor did it reach 440-1,500 deaths on April 8th, as DHS Secretary-Designee Andrea Palm predicted on March 24th.
It took a week for DHS to release the models. Regardless, from day one, it was already obvious from publicly available data, Palm’s nightmare scenario was unlikely. Within a few days, the data showed it was all but impossible. Palm pushed her original narrative until it was obvious to everyone that her original scenario was wrong. However, she still urged the governor to take increasingly autocratic actions.
Not only did he issue emergency orders eliminating the freedom of assembly and free exercise of religion, Evers also attempted to rewrite state law by changing the election date and rewrite the state constitution by extending the terms for local elected offices. He specifically told people to avoid mass gatherings like sleepovers, family dinners, and playdates.
However, Palm’s predictions did not come true. It would have taken a “doubling time” of 2.5 days for them to come true. That means the total number of cases would have to double every 2.5 days.
However, by Apr. 8th, Wisconsin’s doubling time had slowed to 8 days. On Mar. 31, there were 1,351 positive cases in Wisconsin, and 8 days later, that number had doubled.
Gov. Evers was still making decisions based on a 2.5 day doubling time – something the state hadn’t experienced for over two weeks.
That begs the question – why did the Wisconsin Department of Health Services continue to plug disproven data into its models, and present the phony projections to the public?
For one thing, Palm, as a sociology graduate, is unqualified to run DHS. For another, power corrupts.
I don’t think the pandemic is over. I do think the pandemic created a gross overreaction, especially in Wisconsin. Had the Safer at Home order been limited to Milwaukee and Dane counties, which together comprise more than half of this state’s cases, it wouldn’t be as widespread as it is now, and the rest of the state would have been better off.
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The number 15 British song today in 1966 was written by Mick Jagger and Keith Richards:
The number one single today in 1966:
The number one single today in 1977:
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Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers is outraged. Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett is outraged. Pretty much every Democrat in the state and thousands more following the ongoing saga of Wisconsin’s Spring Election are outraged. How dare Republicans endanger lives by holding in-person voting in the middle of the Coronavirus pandemic! How dare they force Wisconsinites to take their lives into their hands! How dare they…publicly say for weeks that the election must go on as scheduled and then abruptly reverse course only when members of their own party revolted against them a few days go?
They didn’t. Governor Evers did. And then he began disingenuously blaming Republicans in the Legislature for his own fecklessness.
On March 17th, the day after he issued an executive order banning public gatherings of more than ten people, he explicitly stated that he did not want to postpone the election.
“How long do we potentially leave offices not filled because we’re into July or August and we haven’t held a general election?” he rhetorically asked during a conference call with reporters.
“Moving this date is not going to solve the problem,” Evers told the Associated Press three days later. “We could move it to June, it could be worse in June. It could be worse in May.”
“Ensuring the health and safety of Wisconsinites is our top priority,” his spokeswoman added, “but the governor has said repeatedly that our democracy must continue.”
The same day, Evers issued a second executive order adding “any location or facility used as a polling location or in-person absentee voting” to the list of essential businesses that would remain open.
Even after he issued a “Safer at Home” order all but shutting down Wisconsin the following Tuesday, Evers refused to postpone the election.
A few days later, when a liberal group sued the state seeking a delay or cancellation of in-person voting, Evers even submitted a “friend of the court” brief in which he argued that “ultimately, a predominantly-by-mail election, with limited but available in-person voting, would be an achievable middle ground that would help protect Wisconsinites’ right to vote, while also helping to keep them safe.”
Only when POLITICO ran an article deeply critical of Evers’ obstinate refusal to postpone the election, the rest of the national media started piling on, and absentee ballot returns from heavily conservative counties started to flood in did he abruptly change course…five days before Election Day.
Nothing medically had changed. The virus wasn’t spreading any more rapidly than it was the day before, voting wasn’t any more dangerous than it had been, but Evers decided to deflect the blame to the Republican Legislature.
“If the governor had legitimate concerns, we could have come to a bipartisan solution weeks ago,” Assembly Speaker Robin Vos and Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald said in a joint statement on Friday. “This discussion would have happened long before today. The only bipartisan discussion we’ve had was to ensure the election would continue safely and to maximize the opportunity to vote absentee.”
Vos and Fitzgerald were open to postponing the election when Evers first started shutting down the state, but Evers refused to discuss the possibility. He was resolute in his decision to push forward.
Until, in an instant, he wasn’t. Then he was outraged, outraged that Republicans weren’t as caring and compassionate as he suddenly was. So outraged, in fact, that he felt as though he had no choice but to issue an executive order the day before the election postponing the vote for two full months.
“I cannot in good conscience stand by and do nothing,” Evers said in a news release announcing the order. “The bottom line is that I have an obligation to keep people safe, and that’s why I signed this executive order today.”
When the Wisconsin Supreme Court struck that order down a few hours later, Evers laid on the faux outrage even more thickly.
“Tomorrow in Wisconsin,” he said in a news release, “thousands will wake up and have to choose between exercising their right to vote and staying healthy and safe. In this time of historic crisis, it is a shame that two branches of government in this state chose to pass the buck instead of taking responsibility for the health and safety of the people we were elected to serve.”
In reality, the Wisconsin Supreme Court simply ruled that Governor Evers did not have the authority to unilaterally delay an election. And guess who agreed with them? Governor Evers, several days before he decided that he was outraged by it.
“We have three branches of government to ensure a system of checks and balances, and questions about our elections typically rely on all three playing a role,” he had tweeted on April First. “If I could have changed the election on my own I would have but I can’t without violating state law.”
“Folks, I can’t do this, move this election or change the rules on my own,” he added in a videotaped address two days later. “My hands are tied.”
The Supreme Court merely agreed with him, but now Evers is outraged that it did.
His faux outrage pales in comparison to that of his fellow Democrats, though, who have been working for days to convince Americans that Wisconsin Republicans—not Governor Evers—had insisted on holding the election amid the pandemic.
“Today, Wisconsin voters had to choose between making their voice heard and keeping themselves and their family safe,” tweeted former First Lady Michelle Obama. “No American should ever have to make that choice.”
“Voters Forced to Choose between Their Health and Their Civic Duty” screamed a headline in The New York Times.
“No one should have to make a choice between exercising their right to vote and staying safe during a public health crisis,” tweeted New Jersey Senator and former presidential candidate Cory Booker.
“This was a dark day for our democracy,” said Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez. “In the middle of one of the worst public health emergencies in modern history, the Republican Party forced the people of Wisconsin to choose between their safety and their vote.”
Of course, no one did—at least no more than they have when they have gone to a supermarket to buy groceries, a liquor store to buy booze (since Evers allowed liquor stores to stay open), a sporting goods store to buy a basketball (since Evers allowed sporting goods stores to stay open), or a custard stand to buy a chocolate malt (yup, Evers even allowed them to stay open, too).
Voting is the only one of these activities that is a sacred right that Evers himself said “people have bled, fought, and died for…in this country.” If Coronavirus didn’t delay Wisconsinites’ ability to buy sporting goods, then why should it delay their right to vote?
No one was more hysterical in promoting the idea that Republicans were forcing voters to gamble with their lives than Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (who is on the ballot facing re-election).
“Under the present circumstances, in-person voting, particularly with lines of people, is simply not safe, feasible, or responsible,” he wrote in an open letter to the Wisconsin Legislature on March 24th. “In good conscience I would not ask one of my loved ones to sit in a room for hours greeting dozens of people during this pandemic. I can’t expect citizens of my city to do that either.”
On Wednesday, he said during a conference call with reporters that it was flat out dangerous to vote in person.
“I don’t think that it’s good public policy, I think it’s dangerous during a pandemic,” The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel quoted him as saying. “And I hope that people do not go to the polls on Tuesday. As much as I want them to vote, I do not want them to put their lives in jeopardy, I don’t want them to put the health and safety of our poll workers in jeopardy.”
On Sunday, Barrett was so outraged that people would have to quite literally risk their lives to cast a ballot that he joined with other liberal mayors in Wisconsin to write a letter urging Health Services Secretary Andrea Palm to ban in-person voting.
“We need you to step up and stop the State of Wisconsin from putting hundreds of thousands of citizens at risk by requiring them to vote at the polls while this ugly pandemic spreads,” they wrote. “We believe it would be irresponsible and contrary to public health to conduct in-person voting throughout the state at the very time this disease is spreading rapidly.”
So outraged was Barrett that people would spread the disease even more rapidly by voting in person that he…voted in person himself.
On Saturday, the day before the letter was released to the public and after nearly two full weeks of Barrett venting his outrage over the specter of in-person voting, he cast his ballot in person at the Washington Park Library.
So unconcerned with the grave danger to his health and the health of the poll workers with whom he was coming into contact that Barrett didn’t bother to wear a mask, gloves, or any personal protective equipment at all.
Even though he had just ended 14 days of self-quarantine after coming into contact with someone who tested positive for Coronavirus, Barrett’s very first public action was to engage in the very behavior that he claimed was simply too risky for others.
His outrage over in-person voting was thus revealed to be rather obviously phony. It was, however, perfectly in line with the shameless political opportunism of his party. Democrats were perfectly fine with in-person voting for weeks when Evers insisted on it, and only shrieked about how dangerous it supposedly was when they could blame Republicans for it.
This is demonstrably transparent, and as disingenuous as it is cynical. If Democrats were really as concerned as they pretend to be about in-person voting spreading Coronavirus more acutely than an average Walmart, they would have criticized Barrett for voting in person and then holding a press conference at his polling place.
They were silent.
If Barrett really believed as surely as he pretended to that in-person voting was dangerous, he wouldn’t have done it himself (and certainly wouldn’t alert the press that he was going to do it).
It was all faux outrage, all of it. And it was all pre-packaged, weaponized against Republicans, amplified by a friendly media, and passed off to the public as genuine concern.
This may have been an unprecedented Spring Election in Wisconsin, but for Democrats, it was business as usual.
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The Wall Street Journal writes an editorial that the Wisconsin State Journal should have, but didn’t:
Wisconsin held its election Tuesday on schedule despite coronavirus, and Democrats are blaming the Supreme Court for endangering public health. That’s not what happened. On Monday night the Justices rightly reversed a district judge’s last-minute order that would have allowed Wisconsin ballots to be cast after the election was legally over. The confusing episode is a reminder that, even in a pandemic, steps as grave as rewriting voting rules should be up to elected representatives and not freelanced by judges.
Wisconsin planned to mitigate the coronavirus threat with a large increase in vote-by-mail so fewer people would need to leave their homes. The Democratic National Committee sued to force the delay of the election outright.
Last Thursday a federal judge denied that extreme request but said vote-by-mail needed to be extended. Instead of receiving ballots by April 7, he said, clerks needed to count any ballots received by next Monday, April 13. After apparently realizing that this could distort the electoral process by allowing Tuesday’s reported results to influence votes, the judge issued another order banning the state elections board from reporting any results before April 13.
The Republican National Committee asked the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene, and five Justices agreed that the district judge was outside his authority. His remedy would “fundamentally alter the nature of the election by allowing voting for six additional days after the election,” they wrote in an unsigned opinion. By trying to muzzle election results, they added, “the District Court in essence enjoined non-parties to this lawsuit.”
The Supreme Court decision came an hour after the Wisconsin Supreme Court swatted aside Gov. Tony Evers’s effort to unilaterally postpone the election. Through March, Mr. Evers, a Democrat, had indicated the election should proceed and issued an executive order exempting polling places from his mass-gathering ban.
Yet liberal pressure built in recent days and on Monday Mr. Evers tried using his emergency powers to call off the next day’s voting. The state’s Supreme Court ruled 4-2 that he didn’t have that power—election law would need to be changed by the legislature (though in other states Governors’ emergency powers are broader). And so voting went ahead, with long lines at socially distanced polling places and a surge in absentee ballots—more than a million compared to less than a quarter million in 2016.
More than a dozen states have postponed their spring primary elections because of the virus. Yet Wisconsin’s election is more consequential than the all-but-finished Biden-Sanders primary that is the main item on the ballot in many states. A state Supreme Court seat and criminal-justice referendum are both contested. Postponing it by months could require altering the duration of elected officials’ terms.
Republicans in the Legislature didn’t show interest in postponing the election, but neither did Mr. Evers until recently. If voters are disappointed, they can hold legislators accountable in November or boot Mr. Evers in 2022.
The pandemic has disrupted much of American life and voting is no exception. But both the district judge’s jury-rigged order and Mr. Evers’s last minute 180-turn under political pressure set a bad precedent. This virus will be here for some time, and people in different states need to deal with it through the democratic process. Americans have already temporarily lost some of our freedom and we shouldn’t also toss out the rule of law.
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Today in 1967, John Lennon took his Rolls–Royce to J.P. Fallon Ltd. in Surrey, England, to see if it could paint the car in psychedelic colors. The result three months later:
The number one single today in 1973:
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Michael Smith is …
Posting this as a gigantic “what if” question.The fact that I now personally know two people who fell ill and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 from two different states TRIGGERED me.
They both reported feeling bad for about 3-4 days, were really ill for around 5-6 (said it was like the worst flu they have ever had), took about another 5 days or so to feel back to almost normal – roughly a 15 day cycle. Both had flu shots but other than that, had nothing other than natural defenses. Thankfully, those were enough to keep them out of the hospital.
So that gave rise to the “what if”.
What if, like HIV, there is no therapy of vaccine for the SARS-CoV-2 viral infection for two or three decades in the future?
Hell, the common cold doesn’t kill us – thank God — but we haven’t figured out how to stop it yet, this variant of the coronavirus might be the same.
The current assumption is that the pandemic would be far worse without the “radical steps” that have been taken — but would it? How do we know?
The reason “flattening the curve” is important is not that self-isolation and social distancing will arrest the virus, it only provides a degree of relief from over-stressing hospitals, medical staff and the supply of medical equipment — so we aren’t fighting the virus with these radical steps, we are fighting scarcity. We’re managing an economic reality, not a medical one.
As many have pointed out, self-isolation, social distancing, masks and medical grade gloves only deprive the virus of fresh skin-covered meat sacks to infect, the virus won’t just die from loneliness.
If NY Governor Nipple Piercings is to be believed, only one in five make it off the vent once they go on, so you have to wonder if putting people on vents is just so we can say we did everything we could even though we know that four out of five are likely too sick to make it.
I’m not suggesting we shouldn’t – I know if it was my family, I would want every measure taken until running out of options — but there comes a time when we learn what conditions can be reversed and which cannot. We do it all the time with cancer.
If therapies or a vaccine aren’t on the near-term horizon, continuing to isolate will only destroy the economy — and it would seem that the same number of people will die, albeit over a longer period of time.
Like I have said, there are no good answers at present, only less bad ones.
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Today in 1956, the CBS Radio Network premiered Alan Freed’s “Rock and Roll Dance Party.”
The number one single today in 1958:
Today in 1962, Mick Jagger and Keith Richards met someone who called himself Elmo Lewis. His real name was Brian Jones.
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Rick Esenberg:
A few observations on the election mess here in Wisconsin:
There is reason to be concerned about in-person voting but it’s not clear how much risk voting will actually present. Much of the rhetoric assumes that voters and poll workers will be facing the equivalent of a free fire zone. That’s understandable. Fear of the virus has lead all of us to feel that it is everywhere. But it’s not true. Unless the virus is largely asymptomatic or causes only mild illness, very few people are infected. There some risk in going anywhere but we’ve decided that risk is worth assuming for a variety of reasons. It’s not clear that the line must stop before voting. It is not clear that the polling places will – or have to be – more crowded than the Sendik’s grocery store I was in twice this week in which it was impossible to maintain social distancing. On the one hand, I have rarely been in a polling place for a spring election that has as many people as the typical grocery store has had during the past week. On the other hand, consolidation of polling places will presumably result in more traffic at each one. How much is unclear. Absentee ballot requests are approaching the average turnout in a typical spring election. While presidential preference primaries increase turnout, I don’t know how likely that is given that the Democrats’ race is over and there seems to be no campaign here. Having in-person voting clearly involves contact without social distancing. How much more is unclear. I guess we’ll see.
Having said that, a reasonable case could be made for a delay (although there are some problems with that case). The problem is that changing the rules in midstream is likely to disadvantage one side or the other. Republicans don’t want to go all-mail voting because they seem to believe that their voters are less likely to vote by mail and because they are concerned about voter fraud. Absentee voting creates more opportunities for fraud, particularly if not accompanied by appropriate safeguards – which the Democrats have been seeking to remove. Democrats, on the other hand, are concerned that fear of the virus is strongest in places where they are strong and that are concerned that ballot security measures discourage their voters who they believe will not or cannot navigate them. Our current election rules are a product of where the conflict between those competing views has come out. Using the virus as a way to adjust the balance that current law reflects was always going to assure that no change in the election could take place. If Democrats and Republicans wanted to delay the election, they should have agreed to do that and only that. They should have agreed that the election would be held in, say, early June without changing any other aspect of the law including the opportunity for in-person voting. Since there was apparently no appetite for that on either side – or guarantee that the situation in June would be much different, it didn’t happen.
But a delay would have presented problems. Many local offices have terms expiring in April. While the legislature could have extended the terms, it could not create incumbents to hold over where such incumbents did not exist. Legislators could hope that, for example, Chris Abele would stay on as County Executive in Milwaukee, but could not make him do it. Delaying the election was going to create vacancies during a challenging time for local government. In addition, asking local units of government to safeguard a million ballots for two months without having them misplaced, mishandled or tampered with may have been too much to expect.
The order entered by Judge Conley on Thursday accomplishes a de facto extension of the election by enjoining the requirement in state law that absentee ballots be received by 8 pm on Tuesday while not requiring that they be postmarked by election day. This extends the voting by a week, making election day April 13 for those who requested absentee ballots. While he later amended the order to prevent WEC from disclosing unofficial results, it does appear to apply to everyone who will be privy to them and, of course, will not prevent them from leaking. We are now looking at a situation where both sides will ballot harvest after voting is over and may know what they “need.” Information regarding who has returned a ballot may not be uniformly available. If the election is close, litigation – and suspicion – may break out all over.
May?
