Earlier this week, Atlantic magazine – fast becoming the favored media outlet for self-styled intellectual elites of the Aspen Institute type – ran an in-depth article of the problems free speech pose to American society in the coronavirus era. The headline:
Internet Speech Will Never Go Back to Normal
In the debate over freedom versus control of the global network, China was largely correct, and the U.S. was wrong.
Authored by a pair of law professors from Harvard and the University of Arizona, Jack Goldsmith and Andrew Keane Woods, the piece argued that the American and Chinese approaches to monitoring the Internet were already not that dissimilar:
Constitutional and cultural differences mean that the private sector, rather than the federal and state governments, currently takes the lead in these practices… But the trend toward greater surveillance and speech control here, and toward the growing involvement of government, is undeniable and likely inexorable.
They went on to list all the reasons that, given that we’re already on an “inexorable” path to censorship, a Chinese-style system of speech control may not be such a bad thing. In fact, they argued, a benefit of the coronavirus was that it was waking us up to “how technical wizardry, data centralization, and private-public collaboration can do enormous public good.”
Perhaps, they posited, Americans could be moved to reconsider their “understanding” of the First and Fourth Amendments, as “the harms from digital speech” continue to grow, and “the social costs of a relatively open Internet multiply.”
This interesting take on the First Amendment was the latest in a line of “Let’s rethink that whole democracy thing” pieces that began sprouting up in earnest four years ago. Articles with headlines like “Democracies end when they become too democratic” and “Too much of a good thing: why we need less democracy” became common after two events in particular: Donald Trump’s victory in the the Republican primary race, and the decision by British voters to opt out of the EU, i.e. “Brexit.”
A consistent lament in these pieces was the widespread decline in respect for “experts” among the ignorant masses, better known as the people Trump was talking about when he gushed in February 2016, “I love the poorly educated!”
The Atlantic was at the forefront of the argument that The People is a Great Beast, that cannot be trusted to play responsibly with the toys of freedom. A 2016 piece called “American politics has gone insane” pushed a return of the “smoke-filled room” to help save voters from themselves. Author Jonathan Rauch employed a metaphor that is striking in retrospect, describing America’s oft-vilified intellectual and political elite as society’s immune system:
Americans have been busy demonizing and disempowering political professionals and parties, which is like spending decades abusing and attacking your own immune system. Eventually, you will get sick.
The new piece by Goldsmith and Woods says we’re there, made literally sick by our refusal to accept the wisdom of experts. The time for asking the (again, literally) unwashed to listen harder to their betters is over. The Chinese system offers a way out. When it comes to speech, don’t ask: tell.
As the Atlantic lawyers were making their case, YouTube took down a widely-circulated video about coronavirus, citing a violation of “community guidelines.”
The offenders were Drs. Dan Erickson and Artin Massahi, co-owners of an “Urgent Care” clinic in Bakersfield, California. They’d held a presentation in which they argued that widespread lockdowns were perhaps not necessary, according to data they were collecting and analyzing.
“Millions of cases, small amounts of deaths,” said Erickson, a vigorous, cheery-looking Norwegian-American who argued the numbers showed Covid-19 was similar to flu in mortality rate. “Does [that] necessitate shutdown, loss of jobs, destruction of oil companies, furloughing doctors…? I think the answer is going to be increasingly clear.”
The reaction of the medical community was severe. It was pointed out that the two men owned a clinic that was losing business thanks to the lockdown. The message boards of real E.R. doctors lit up with angry comments, scoffing at the doctors’ dubious data collection methods and even their somewhat dramatic choice to dress in scrubs for their video presentation.
The American Academy of Emergency Medicine (AAEM) and American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) scrambled to issue a joint statement to “emphatically condemn” the two doctors, who “do not speak for medical society” and had released “biased, non-peer reviewed data to advance their personal financial interests.”
As is now almost automatically the case in the media treatment of any controversy, the story was immediately packaged for “left” and “right” audiences by TV networks. Tucker Carlson on Fox backed up the doctors’ claims, saying “these are serious people who’ve done this for a living for decades,” and YouTube and Google have “officially banned dissent.”
Meanwhile, over on Carlson’s opposite-number channel, MSNBC, anchor Chris Hayes of the All In program reacted with fury to Carlson’s monologue:
There’s a concerted effort on the part of influential people at the network that we at All In call Trump TV right now to peddle dangerous misinformation about the coronavirus… Call it coronavirus trutherism.
Hayes, an old acquaintance of mine, seethed at what he characterized as the gross indifference of Trump Republicans to the dangers of coronavirus. “At the beginning of this horrible period, the president, along with his lackeys, and propagandists, they all minimized what was coming,” he said, sneering. “They said it was just like a cold or the flu.”
He angrily demanded that if Fox acolytes like Carlson believed so strongly that society should be reopened, they should go work in a meat processing plant. “Get in there if you think it’s that bad. Go chop up some pork.”
The tone of the many media reactions to Erickson, Carlson, Trump, Georgia governor Brian Kemp, and others who’ve suggested lockdowns and strict shelter-in-place laws are either unnecessary or do more harm than good, fits with what writer Thomas Frank describes as a new “Utopia of Scolding”:
Who needs to win elections when you can personally reestablish the social order every day on Twitter and Facebook? When you can scold, and scold, and scold. That’s their future, and it’s a satisfying one: a finger wagging in some vulgar proletarian’s face, forever.
In the Trump years the sector of society we used to describe as liberal America became a giant finger-wagging machine. The news media, academia, the Democratic Party, show-business celebrities and masses of blue-checked Twitter virtuosos became a kind of umbrella agreement society, united by loathing of Trump and fury toward anyone who dissented with their preoccupations.
Because this Conventional Wisdom viewed itself as being solely concerned with the Only Important Thing, i.e. removing Trump, there was no longer any legitimate excuse for disagreeing with its takes on Russia, Julian Assange, Jill Stein, Joe Rogan, the 25th amendment, Ukraine, the use of the word “treason,” the removal of Alex Jones, the movie Joker, or whatever else happened to be the #Resistance fixation of the day.
When the Covid-19 crisis struck, the scolding utopia was no longer abstraction. The dream was reality! Pure communism had arrived! Failure to take elite advice was no longer just a deplorable faux pas. Not heeding experts was now murder. It could not be tolerated. Media coverage quickly became a single, floridly-written tirade against “expertise-deniers.” For instance, the Atlantic headline on Kemp’s decision to end some shutdowns was, “Georgia’s Experiment in Human Sacrifice.”
At the outset of the crisis, America’s biggest internet platforms – Facebook, Twitter, Google, LinkedIn, and Reddit – took an unprecedented step to combat “fraud and misinformation” by promising extensive cooperation in elevating “authoritative” news over less reputable sources.
H.L. Mencken once said that in America, “the general average of intelligence, of knowledge, of competence, of integrity, of self-respect, of honor is so low that any man who knows his trade, does not fear ghosts, has read fifty good books, and practices the common decencies stands out as brilliantly as a wart on a bald head.”
We have a lot of dumb people in this country. But the difference between the stupidities cherished by the Idiocracy set ingesting fish cleaner, and the ones pushed in places like the Atlantic, is that the jackasses among the “expert” class compound their wrongness by being so sure of themselves that they force others to go along. In other words, to combat “ignorance,” the scolders create a new and more virulent species of it: exclusive ignorance, forced ignorance, ignorance with staying power.
The people who want to add a censorship regime to a health crisis are more dangerous and more stupid by leaps and bounds than a president who tells people to inject disinfectant. It’s astonishing that they don’t see this
Journalists are professional test-crammers. Our job is to get an assignment on Monday morning and by Tuesday evening act like we’re authorities on intellectual piracy, the civil war in Yemen, Iowa caucus procedure, the coronavirus, whatever. We actually know jack: we speed-read, make a few phone calls, and in a snap people are inviting us on television to tell millions of people what to think about the complex issues of the world.When we come to a subject cold, the job is about consulting as many people who really know their stuff as quickly as possible and sussing out – often based on nothing more than hunches or impressions of the personalities involved – which set of explanations is most believable. Sportswriters who covered the Deflategate football scandal had to do this in order to explain the Ideal Gas Law, I had to do it to cover the subprime mortgage scandal, and reporters this past January and February had to do it when assigned to assess the coming coronavirus threat.
It does not take that much work to go back and find that a significant portion of the medical and epidemiological establishment called this disaster wrong when they were polled by reporters back in the beginning of the year. Right-wingers are having a blast collecting the headlines, and they should, given the chest-pounding at places like MSNBC about others who “minimized the risk.” Here’s a brief sample:
Get a Grippe, America: The flu is a much bigger threat than coronavirus, for now: Washington Post
Coronavirus is scary, but the flu is deadlier, more widespread : USA Today
Want to Protect Yourself From Coronavirus? Do the Same Things You Do Every Winter : Time
Here’s my personal favorite, from Wired on January 29:
We should de-escalate the war on coronavirus
There are dozens of these stories and they nearly all contain the same elements, including an inevitable quote or series of quotes from experts telling us to calm the hell down. This is from the Time piece:
“Good hand-washing helps. Staying healthy and eating healthy will also help,” says Dr. Sharon Nachman, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at New York’s Stony Brook Children’s Hospital. “The things we take for granted actually do work. It doesn’t matter what the virus is. The routine things work.”
There’s a reason why journalists should always keep their distance from priesthoods in any field. It’s particularly in the nature of insular communities of subject matter experts to coalesce around orthodoxies that blind the very people in the loop who should be the most knowledgeable.
“Experts” get things wrong for reasons that are innocent (they’ve all been taught the same incorrect thing in school) and less so (they have a financial or professional interest in denying the truth).
On the less nefarious side, the entire community of pollsters in 2016 denounced as infamous the idea that Donald Trump could win the Republican nomination, let alone the general election. They believed that because they weren’t paying attention to voters (their ostensible jobs), but also because they’d never seen anything similar. In a more suspicious example, if you asked a hundred Wall Street analysts in September 2008 what caused the financial crisis, probably no more than a handful would have mentioned fraud or malfeasance.
Both of the above examples point out a central problem with trying to automate the fact-checking process the way the Internet platforms have of late, with their emphasis on “authoritative” opinions.
“Authorities” by their nature are untrustworthy. Sometimes they have an interest in denying truths, and sometimes they actually try to define truth as being whatever they say it is. “Elevating authoritative content” over independent or less well-known sources is an algorithmic take on the journalistic obsession with credentialing that has been slowly destroying our business for decades.
The WMD fiasco happened because journalists listened to people with military ranks and titles instead of demanding evidence and listening to their own instincts. The same thing happened with Russiagate, a story fueled by intelligence “experts” with grand titles who are now proven to have been wrong to a spectacular degree, if not actually criminally liable in pushing a fraud.
We’ve become incapable of talking calmly about possible solutions because we’ve lost the ability to decouple scientific or policy discussions, or simple issues of fact, from a political argument. Reporting on the Covid-19 crisis has become the latest in a line of moral manias with Donald Trump in the middle.
Instead of asking calmly if hydroxychloroquine works, or if the less restrictive Swedish crisis response has merit, or questioning why certain statistical assumptions about the seriousness of the crisis might have been off, we’re denouncing the questions themselves as infamous. Or we’re politicizing the framing of stories in a way that signals to readers what their take should be before they even digest the material. “Conservative Americans see coronavirus hope in Progressive Sweden,” reads a Politico headline, as if only conservatives should feel optimism in the possibility that a non-lockdown approach might have merit! Are we rooting for such an approach to not work?
From everything I’ve heard, talking to doctors and reading the background material, the Bakersfield doctors are probably not the best sources. But the functional impact of removing their videos (in addition to giving them press they wouldn’t otherwise have had) is to stamp out discussion of things that do actually need to be discussed, like when the damage to the economy and the effects of other crisis-related problems – domestic abuse, substance abuse, suicide, stroke, abuse of children, etc. – become as significant a threat to the public as the pandemic. We do actually have to talk about this. We can’t not talk about it out of fear of being censored, or because we’re confusing real harm with political harm.
Turning ourselves into China for any reason is the definition of a cure being worse than the disease. The scolders who are being seduced by such thinking have to wake up, before we end up adding another disaster on top of the terrible one we’re already facing.
-
No comments on The coronavirus takes away your freedom of speech
-
Wisconsin’s largest business groups are using such words as “devastating” and “extinction-level” to describe the economic problems created by the state’s coronavirus lockdown.
Wisconsin’s Manufacturers and Commerce and the state’s Restaurant Association were just two of the groups pressing lawmakers to reopen the state on Thursday.
The groups said many businesses cannot wait another month to reopen.
Wisconsin Restaurant Association President Kristine Hillmer says half the state’s restaurants could close forever if the lockdown lasts longer.
“Prior to the crisis, there were 12,796 eating and drink establishments in our state. We employed over 284,000 people, representing about 9 percent of people in our state,” Hillmer said. “That represented $10.1 billion in estimated sales in Wisconsin.”
Hillmer said the numbers today are very different.
“A survey conducted between April 10 and April 16 this year illustrates the devastating impact on our industry,” Hillmer said. “One hundred thirty-six thousand-plus restaurant employees have been laid off or furloughed since the beginning of the outbreak.”
WMC’s Scott Manley said it is an economic imperative to reopen the state’s economy.
“As we sit here, right now, we have 19 percent unemployment. That is twice as high as it was during the worst days of the Great Recession, Manley said. “We’ve got 450,000 people who’ve filed for unemployment claims since social distancing regulations took effect.”
Manley added that most stores had seen their foot traffic cut in half, and restaurants and bars in the state have it worse than that.
Governor Evers says he’s willing to talk about reopening the state, but wants to see a plan from Republicans first.
Hillmer said that lawmakers and the governor should be working together, not squabbling.
“It is urgent that we use this time to figure out how these businesses can reopen, safely,” Hillmer told lawmakers.
-
-
Today is the 60th anniversary of what I used to consider the greatest radio station on the planet in its best format:
-
There have been mixed signals out of Green Bay since the team surprisingly drafted Jordan Love in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. The Packers appear to still be committed to Aaron Rodgers, for now. After examining his contract, it’s clear that Green Bay will have a window to potentially split with him after the 2021 season.
As Spotrac details, Rodgers’ contract would leave teams a (somewhat) easier out in terms of dead cap space. The 2020 season has a cap hit that’s north of $21.6 million with a dead cap number of more than $51.1 million. That dead cap number drops to slightly more than $31.5 million in 2021, then $17.204 million and $2.852 million in 2022 and 2023.
Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio tossed out the idea that the club may actually want Rodgers to possibly “ask for a divorce” at some point in the future. He cited the front office potentially seeing themselves in a similar situation that the Packers were in with Brett Favre, writing:
Again, that’s possibly precisely what the Packers want. They knew how to get Brett Favre to retire in 2008 (i.e., ask him for a firm decision in February, when they knew he’d be inclined to walk away), and they know (or at least believe they know) how to get Rodgers to be the one to ask for a divorce.
If that happens, which team would Rodgers angle for as a next destination? Perhaps no team is more equipped to thrive with Rodgers than the Denver Broncos – assuming they have an interest in making a deal down the line.
John Elway once convinced Peyton Manning to play the second-leg of his career in Denver and it worked out. Peyton won his second Super Bowl, becoming the only quarterback in NFL history to win a ring with two separate franchises.
Denver will be set up to make a similar pitch whenever Rodgers’ tenure in Green Bay is over. One big factor at the time will obviously be money and the salary cap situation, but a lot can happen over the coming seasons.
Denver added several playmakers this offseason, which makes them an appealing option for any signal-caller (including second-year quarterback Drew Lock). Melvin Gordon was brought in to join Phillip Lindsay in the backfield, for starters. They drafted tight end Noah Fant last year, and this year, in addition to wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, the Broncos drafted K.J. Hamler as another explosive wideout to go with Courtland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton.
“We’re going to have to score points to win in our division,” Elway said (via NBC Sports’ Peter King). “Obviously at 15 we were thrilled that Jeudy still was there. And going into round two, we were focused on Hamler. He’s explosive and really tough. It’s hard to go 80 yards in this league, and we feel like we drafted two guys who can. Kansas City has those guys, and the quarterback [Patrick Mahomes] is obviously going to be great for a long time.”
As King wrote, NFL teams didn’t have a reliable 40-yard dash time for Hamler, though once they looked at the tape, it was clear that he was impressively fast.
“He had a 100-yard kick return against Michigan,” Elway said, “and so we just figured we’d time him [in a 40-yard interval] on that play. We timed him at 3.93 in the 40, but of course he had a running start. He just has a different speed than anyone else. This has become such a speed game. Watch Kansas City. We love Courtland, we love Jeudy. Get Hamler in the slot against quarters coverage, releasing upfield at 4.3 or 4.32 speed, and that’s going to put a lot of pressure on the safeties, I know that.”
As nice as the situation in Denver is, the New England Patriots can’t be counted out as a hypothetical future suitor.
The Patriots do not have a clear-cut long-term answer at quarterback on the roster. Former fourth-round pick Jarrett Stidham could do his best Tom Brady impression on the field, but that’s a big TBD at this moment.
It appears the Pats will enter the 2021 offseason with a need at quarterback. They could target the NFL draft if Stidham is unable to emerge from the pack. Perhaps 68-year-old Bill Belichick would like to groom someone he can coach into his late 70s. However, bringing in a quarterback who can offer three to five years of above-average play is undoubtedly the best option for the franchise.
Will Rodgers shift over to the AFC? While there is strong competition for the conference title with teams like the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs, there isn’t a long list of AFC teams that appear to be perennial locks to make the playoffs. It may be an easier path than in the crowded NFC, though. Wherever Rodgers lands, he’d certainly target a home where obtaining his second Super Bowl ring is a realistic outcome from the moment he hypothetically signs.
Bob McGinn, formerly of the Green Bay Press–Gazette and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

The mere law of averages says that Love won’t have nearly the same career that Favre had and Rodgers is having. The other thing is that, in contrast to what fans of the old-style smash-mouth NFL think, running the ball first doesn’t make you an elite team anymore, in large part because running back are one of the least durable positions as far as length of NFL career.
This certainly has reverberated throughout the sports world, in part because nothing else is going on. On the one hand Rodgers is going to retire at some point. He may want to play as long as Favre did, but given his lack of durability compared with Favre that seems unrealistic. On the other hand, if this story is legitimate, the apparent arrogance of LaFleur in thinking he can replace a Hall of Fame quarterback with no problem is pretty astonishing. One season does not make LaFleur a good coach, and questions are increasing about Gutekunst after a draft where most draft experts (such a “draft expert is”) are giving the Packers F grades.
If Love can’t get the job done, well, there are plenty of candidates for GM and coach positions, and I’m sure some other team will hire Gutekunst and LaFleur for something.
-
Doubling down on its constitutionally suspect lockdown orders, the Evers administration and the liberal-led state Department of Justice are asking the Wisconsin Supreme Court to reject a lawsuit challenging the Democratic governor’s power grab.
The administration’s brief, filed by the previously invisible Attorney General Josh Kaul, is a fractured defense of executive overreach — as arrogant as it is petulant.
Kaul, who has been quick to accuse President Donald Trump of abuse of power, refuses to see the liberties fellow Democrat Evers has taken with Wisconsinites’ liberties during the COVID-19 outbreak. The attorney general, like the governor, believes a health crisis trumps the state and U.S. constitutions.
He argues for the “broad and well-established authority granted to the executive branch to respond to public health emergencies.”
“(The Republican-led Legislature) posit a fundamental reworking of how Wisconsin responds to a pandemic—in the midst of one—that is incompatible with the statutes, constitutional principles, and on-the-ground reality,” the motion argues.
Kaul fails to note that such powers are neither indefinite nor complete under Wisconsin law and, more so, the constitution.
When state Department of Health Services Secretary-designee Andrea Palm extended by a month Evers’ original stay-at-home edict, she surpassed the authority granted under statute, the Republican-led Legislature claims in its original petition, filed earlier this month. The Legislature asked the Supreme Court to issue an injunction against Palm’s longer lockdown, but it would allow a six-day stay so that DHS can work with lawmakers to come up with a reasonable plan to re-open Wisconsin.
On Tuesday, the Wisconsin Institute of Law & Liberty filed an amicus, or friend-of-the-court, brief on behalf of the Independent Business Association of Wisconsin and two small businesses — a Pleasant Prairie auto repair shop and a Grafton hair salon. The devastation caused by the lockdown orders have already surpassed the peak job losses of the Great Recession.
“Governor Evers and his administration have taken an overly expansive approach to how power and decision-making is made in Wisconsin,” said Rick Esenberg, WILL’s president and general counsel. “It is vital that the Court reestablishes the proper balance to the separation of powers and prohibit rule of the state by the executive branch without input from the people and oversight by the Legislature.”
Wisconsin’s unemployment rate has surged to 18 percent, according to an analysis by the Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy (CROWE).
In his brief, Kaul argues the Evers administration knows best. And he suggests critics better play ball or more restrictive lockdowns could be in the offing.
“The task now is to get sufficiently ahead of COVID-19 so that Wisconsinites’ sacrifices are not for nothing, and that less restrictive containment strategies can be deployed: exactly what the Badger Bounce Back plan proposes,” the brief states, referring to Evers’ controversial plan to slowly dial back his broad, stay-at-home order.
Kaul points to early public support for the emergency lockdowns. That support has wained in recent weeks, however, particularly after Palm extended the order until May 26, attaching COVID-19 case-reduction goals that very likely could drag on the shutdown.
Evers’ office was flooded with calls and emails immediately after he announced the extension, “accusing him of destroying the state’s economy, begging him to let business re-open and warning that voters will punish him,” according to an Associated Press review.
“One woman pleaded with Evers to let her visit her husband in hospice before he dies of brain cancer. Other people demanded he let youth baseball resume and allow hair salons to re-open. A hairdresser wrote that Evers’ hair looks so good on TV he must be using a stylist in violation of his own order,” AP reported.
Those pleas have mostly fallen on deaf ears. Evers has ordered state parks, golf courses, and some “nonessential” service businesses can re-open. Many thousands more wait and worry whether they’ll survive the administration’s one-size-fits-all pandemic response.
As Wisconsin Spotlight reported this week, Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce has proposed a Back to Business plan, a comprehensive strategy to safely restart Wisconsin’s full economy. So far, it appears to be collecting dust on the governor’s desk.
-
The number one single today in 1965:
Today in 1970, the Jimi Hendrix Experience played the first of its 13-show U.S. tour at the Milwaukee Auditorium:
-
Vaughn Cordle of Ionosphere Capital:
Refining our research thus far, we have determined that the covid-19 mortality, death and case-fatalities rates are significantly lower than experts and policymakers currently believe. We have estimated the economic costs for various lockdown timelines and when the recovery can be phased in. The point where layoff-related deaths exceed covid-19 lives saved is when we need to consider whether going on will be costlier than going back.
We estimate an average household burden of $33,442 and $27,848 per employed due to the $4.3trn cost to save covid-19-related lives. The shorter the duration of the lockdown, the lower the cost and debt burden on the men and women who make our country great. This debt includes $3.8trn in deficit spending and $27trn in public debt, which, either separately or combined, will result in higher taxes, reduced social spending, lower job growth, GDP and living standards.
Numbers are central tendency estimates which likely will not match actual results. However, they are more than sufficient to make our trade-off argument that covid lives saved should not be exceeded by lives ruined and lives lost.
The cost in human lives
On April 20, University of Washington (Institute of Health Metrics) Professor Ali Mokdad said, “The United States is already past the “peak” in terms of daily covid-19-related deaths.” The IMHE modelers recently revised projected coronavirus-related deaths sharply downward, estimating 60,300 coronavirus-related deaths by early August. The White House had previously said that there might be between 100,000 and 240,000 coronavirus-related deaths even if most people followed strict social distancing guidelines.
Using our estimates, a 31% increase in unemployment (47m) with a lockdown extending through May will result in a doubling of drug overdoses (69,735) and an additional 15,137 suicides. Together, these account for 84,872 layoff-related deaths, in addition to the base-case estimates of 60,300 (with an estimated range of 34,063 to 140,381) coronavirus deaths predicted by the IMHE researchers.
The grim calculus of joblessness
According to data from the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Lancet, a medical journal, every one percent hike in unemployment will likely produce a 3.3 percent increase in drug-overdose deaths and a 0.99 percent increase in suicides.
For the year ending February 2019 (NCHS), 69,029 people died of drug overdoses, almost 7 out of 10 the result of opioids. Suicide, the tenth leading cause of death in the United States, accounted for 48,344 deaths (CDC), more than twice the number of homicides (19,510).
Lockdown-related deaths will likely exceed the base-case number of covid-19 deaths by 141%—and this offsets 60% of the highest estimate of 140,381 predicted by IMHE researchers.
The number of layoff-related drug overdoses and suicide deaths will soar as lockdown durations grow, and in tandem with job losses, debt obligations and economic costs.
Our base-case estimate is for 15 million unemployed by the end of 2020, assuming a phased-in recovery starting mid-May. Given the expected recovery, we now estimate 33,743 drug overdoses and 7,324 suicides, which sum to 41,067 layoff-related deaths. While not as grim, it increases the base-case estimate covid-19 deaths by 68%.
We provide additional tables required to validate and support our trade-off conclusions in the following essay: The price of reducing needless deaths versus the price of COVID-19 lives saved: The grim calculus. The series of essays are from a longer covid study.
Although statistics for alcohol layoff-related deaths are not as strong, there is a robust correlation. For people aged 50–65, being unemployed is associated with increased drinking, mood swings, and depression, which highlights the need for prevention policies and interventions and to improve access to treatment services during an economic recession, especially for vulnerable groups such as those facing layoffs in middle age.
Given the lockdown costs in lives and treasury, is it not common sense to say that the U.S. must go back to work, perhaps gradually, in phases. A mid-May unlock would reduce the economic cost by approximately $1.2trn, unemployment by 5.2 million, and reduce layoff-related deaths. If grocery stores and Home Depot can operate safely as essential businesses, so can many others. Like a critically ill patient, the economy cannot be on life support indefinitely. This is especially true when wealth destruction from a prolonged lockdown harms our ability to fund healthcare.
With luck and ingenuity, scientists will develop a vaccine for the world’s people. For America’s economy, getting back to work is the best medicine. The point where layoff-related deaths exceed covid-19 lives saved is when we need to consider whether going on will be costlier than going back.
Note: Donald McGregor’s The Coronavirus: The Health of Our Nation, Our Economy, and Our Liberties, a Delicate Balance is an excellent commentary about the devastating psychosocial impact of a prolonged pandemic lockdown.
As predicted, police calls for domestic incidents are increasing. -
The office of Gov. Tony Evers issued this news release Thursday afternoon:
Gov. Tony Evers announced today that dozens of organizations, which collectively represent more than one million Wisconsinites, voiced their support for the extension of Safer at Home in briefs filed with the Wisconsin Supreme Court. On April 21, 2020, Legislative Republicans asked the Court to block Safer at Home without offering any alternative plan to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has killed more than 55,000 Americans, and more than 200,000 people worldwide.
“From nurses and doctors to pastors and community leaders, the message to state lawmakers and the Court is loud and clear: Safer at Home is saving lives,” said Gov. Evers. “This is an unprecedented outpouring of support, and I hope people in the State Capitol listen.”
Organizations representing hundreds of thousands of Wisconsinites filed amicus briefs asking the Wisconsin Supreme Court to uphold the Evers Administration’s Safer at Home Order. Before the Safer at Home order, the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 was doubling every 3.4 days, a rate similar to Italy and Spain, which have been devasted by COVID-19. With Safer at Home in place, the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 has doubled every 12.4 days. This “bending of the curve” has prevented Wisconsin hospitals from becoming overrun, and the first three weeks of Safer at Home is estimated to have saved at least 300 lives and perhaps as many as 1,400 lives in the fight against COVID-19. Continued adherence to science and advice of health professionals has the potential to save thousands more in Wisconsin alone.
The following organizations and individuals filed briefs asking the Wisconsin Supreme Court to uphold Safer at Home:- Wisconsin Public Health Association, Wisconsin Nurses Association, Wisconsin Chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics, Wisconsin Association for Perinatal Care, My Choice Family Care – Care Wisconsin, and more than 50 doctors, nurses, pathologists, professors, and public health experts from around Wisconsin filed an amicus brief demonstrating the deadly nature of COVID-19 and the need for prompt, executive action to combat pandemics. Available here.
- 24 nonpartisan community groups, membership and advocacy organizations, labor organizations, Native American tribes, and community service organizations located throughout Wisconsin, which collectively represent hundreds of thousands of Wisconsinites, filed a brief demonstrating the catastrophic impact lifting Safer at Home will have on Wisconsinites. Available here.
Note that “nonpartisan” and “nonideological” are not synonyms.
- The Wisconsin Association of Local Health Departments and Boards and more than 17 local officials and governments filed an amicus brief arguing that Safer at Home’s statewide approach is needed to combat COVID-19 and protect communities throughout Wisconsin. Available here.
- The Wisconsin Council of Churches and dozens of pastors, priests, rabbis, and other religious leaders filed an amicus brief representing more than one million congregants, demonstrating the importance of Safer at Home to religious communities throughout Wisconsin. Available here.
- 17 leading legal scholars filed an amicus brief showing that DHS’s pandemic powers are common throughout the country and that the Legislature’s lawsuit threatens the separation of powers in Wisconsin. Available here.
- Legal Action Wisconsin, which represents low-income individuals and elderly persons throughout Wisconsin, filed an amicus brief arguing that the Wisconsin Legislature doesn’t have a basis to sue DHS. Available here.
- Labor organizations representing teachers, nurses, and transit workers filed an amicus. Available here.
Earlier this month, more than 200 businesses, city, county, and tribal government officials, medical professionals, and organizations representing everything from labor and educators to religious entities, to civil rights, to veterans affairs, signed a letter of support for Wisconsin’s Safer at Home efforts, which can be found here.
In addition, Wisconsin healthcare organizations representing healthcare providers and professionals throughout the state wrote in strong support of extending Safer at Home. The organizations included: Wisconsin Medical Society, Wisconsin Nurses Association, Wisconsin Psychiatric Association, Greater Wisconsin Agency on Aging Resources, Wisconsin Chapter of the American College of Physicians, Wisconsin Chapter of the American College of Emergency Physicians, Wisconsin Academy of Family Physicians, Wisconsin Radiological Society, and Wisconsin Chapter of the American Academy of Pediatrics.All this means is that every left-wing group and every pro-government group loves Safer at Home because it maximizes their political power. Or, as put in South Park…
I got into an argument with the DJ and left-wing pundit who calls himself Sly about how Evers is polling. I couldn’t care less how this polls. Right is right, and wrong is wrong, and Evers and everyone who supports him is dead wrong. Perhaps it will take their own financial destitution for them to grasp that.