The end?

Michael Smith:

The pandemic is over.

How do I know?

It is no longer a useful tool to frighten the weak minded. Even the weak minded can understand numbers like these:

3 weeks ago: 2 million will die! The China’s data is the gold standard on which to base our models. Look at Italy!

2 weeks ago: 240,000 will die! Well, China’s data might be more like tin or copper and Italy is more or less just making it up. We could be off a little.

1 week ago: OK, maybe it is 100,000. Models are hard, you know – and maybe China was lying after all.

Today: Oops. My bad. maybe 61,000 – maybe less. I guess it is like the flu after all. And by the way, we’re like Italy – if anybody could spell COVID-19 before they died, we put them on the list. Sorry we destroyed the economy, by the way.

Even a progressive moron can understand that 60,000 is less than 2 million – well, those in the media might not be able to do so…

I know it is over because the preferred narrative is switching from “We’re all in this together!” to “You know, that virus is really pretty racist after all. Hydroxychloroquine won’t cure it but I’ll bet more spending and some reparations would!”

The minute these morons go all Social Justice Warrior over a medical issue, you know they are feeling pretty safe.

Over.

Done and dusted.

Or was it ever a real problem?

Apparently not, based on the behavior of certain politicians. One of this blog’s maxims is that you know it’s a crisis when people in authority act like it’s a crisis. You certainly can’t say that about Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, can you?

But what do the numbers say? The Recall Tony Evers Facebook page points out:

Do you know what is today? Let me help you – it is the day that our Wisconsin DHS predicted we would hit 22,000 positive cases of coronavirus and between 440-1,500 deaths. … This was predicted by DHS Secretary-Designee Andrea Palm on March 24th. 

The totals, as of yesterday, were 2,756 positive tests, 790 hospitalizations, and 99 deaths. And 30,115 negative tests. Given the trend (around 200 new cases per day) the 22,000 mark would not be reached until the middle of July … if that ever happens.

How can DHS be so far off? Bill Osmulski:

Wisconsin did not hit 22,000 positive cases of coronavirus nor did it reach 440-1,500 deaths on April 8th, as DHS Secretary-Designee Andrea Palm predicted on March 24th.

It took a week for DHS to release the models. Regardless, from day one, it was already obvious from publicly available data, Palm’s nightmare scenario was unlikely. Within a few days, the data showed it was all but impossible. Palm pushed her original narrative until it was obvious to everyone that her original scenario was wrong. However, she still urged the governor to take increasingly autocratic actions.

Not only did he issue emergency orders eliminating the freedom of assembly and free exercise of religion, Evers also attempted to rewrite state law by changing the election date and rewrite the state constitution by extending the terms for local elected offices. He specifically told people to avoid mass gatherings like sleepovers, family dinners, and playdates.

However, Palm’s predictions did not come true.  It would have taken a “doubling time” of 2.5 days for them to come true. That means the total number of cases would have to double every 2.5 days.

However, by Apr. 8th, Wisconsin’s doubling time had slowed to 8 days. On Mar. 31, there were 1,351 positive cases in Wisconsin, and 8 days later, that number had doubled.

Gov. Evers was still making decisions based on a 2.5 day doubling time – something the state hadn’t experienced for over two weeks.

That begs the question – why did the Wisconsin Department of Health Services continue to plug disproven data into its models, and present the phony projections to the public?

For one thing, Palm, as a sociology graduate, is unqualified to run DHS. For another, power corrupts.

I don’t think the pandemic is over. I do think the pandemic created a gross overreaction, especially in Wisconsin. Had the Safer at Home order been limited to Milwaukee and Dane counties, which together comprise more than half of this state’s cases, it wouldn’t be as widespread as it is now, and the rest of the state would have been better off.

 

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