Evers vs. business, part 1

M.D. Kittle:

Gov. Tony Evers’ plan to cut middle-income taxes by raising taxes on Wisconsin’s vital manufacturing sector is making some employers nervous.

And that’s not what the doctor ordered for a resurgent sector that not that long ago seemed to be on life support.

“I have an advanced manufacturer in my district in the process of trying to expand their business. Now they are are concerned, with the rhetoric coming out of the East Wing, they’re not sure if it’s the right to expand their business,” state Sen. Patrick Testin (R-Stevens Point) told MacIver News Service last week on the Vicki McKenna Show on NewsTalk 1130 WISN.

The markets may hate uncertainty, and business deplores it.

“This is not the time we should send out mixed messages within the state of Wisconsin that’s going to put any new development or growth on ice,” Testin said. “We should continue to pursue policies that are going to grow our economy.”

Evers campaigned on a pledge to cut taxes 10 percent on middle-income earners, amounting to about $225 in tax relief for the average filer. The Democrat’s plan, yet to be fully defined, would be paid for in large part by hiking taxes on manufacturers that make more than $300,000 annually. Those who do exceed the income limit would no longer receive the state’s manufacturing and agricultural tax credit. Evers says the cap would generate about $518 million to pay for his proposal, leaving nearly $375 million at present unpaid for.

An Assembly Republican tax relief packagewould also target middle-income earners, delivering a $300-plus income tax cut for the median income family, according to the Legislative Fiscal Bureau. Republicans fund their proposal using about $340 million annually from the projected $2.4 billion in additional tax revenue over the next couple of years.

The bill, which passed last week in the Legislature’s Joint Finance Committee on a party-line vote, is slated for floor debate this week in the Republican-controlled Legislature.

Evers’ plan appears to be a nonstarter for Republicans.

“We are not going to raise taxes — period,” said Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R-Rochester). “We are not going to raise taxes, especially on our job creators, when we have a huge budget surplus.”

Capping the tax credit, critics say, could be disastrous for a rapidly expanding manufacturing sector that has helped the Badger State keep its unemployment rate at 3 percent or lower for nearly a year.

The state added 9,100 private-sector jobs in December, according to the latest preliminary data from the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development.Wisconsin’s unemployment rate remained at 3 percent.

Wisconsin added 44,900 private-sector jobs from December 2017 to December 2018, with weekly wages rising a robust 4.5 percent in year-over-year comparisons. Wisconsin’s private-sector wages grew on average by 5.7 percent in the first five months of 2018, according to Census Bureau data. That compared to 2.7 percent for the entire U.S.

Manufacturing has had a lot to do with the strong economy.

A big reason for manufacturing’s resurgence in Wisconsin is tax policy change over the last eight years, particularly the manufacturing and agriculture tax credit that was among Republican Gov. Scott Walker’s top first-term initiatives. A 2017 University of Wisconsin-Madison analysis of the tax credit found it had accounted for the addition of more than 20,000 manufacturing jobs and more than 42,000 total jobs over a three-year period.

Capping the tax credit would have real-world implications on businesses that have helped build Wisconsin’s economic turnaround.

The vast majority of Wisconsin businesses in the U.S. — and Wisconsin — are pass-throughs, such as S-corporations and sole proprietorships. The tax structure passes income through to the businesses owners to be taxed under the individual income tax, not at the corporate rate. It reduces the effects of double taxation faced by traditional C-corporations.

In December’s extraordinary session, the Legislature passed a bill allowing pass-throughs the ability to choose between filing under the individual tax code or the higher 7.9 percent corporate rate. In that case, the businesses aren’t capped by the $10,000 limit on individual income tax deductions.

Most pass-throughs are small businesses with $10 million or less — much less in many cases – in sales or receipts. Evers’ tax increase on small manufacturers with taxable income of more than $300,000 would more than likely stymie job creation and production expansion in Wisconsin, Testin said.

That’s why it’s critical, Testin said, that the Legislature hold the line on any attempt to raise taxes.

“That’s the wrong approach right now. We don’t need to,” the senator said. “The (Legislative) Fiscal Bureau numbers show we are in sound fiscal ground right now. To upend the apple cart and send a chilling message to the business community in the state that we have an administration that wants to be tax happy, it’s the wrong call.”

Ask Bill Smith what he thinks about the legislative battle over tax cuts and he’ll tell you lawmakers should instead focus on repealing one of the state’s most inequitable taxes: The personal property tax.

“We urge the governor and the Legislature to get rid of the personal property tax and give Main Street some real relief,” Smith, state director of NFIB Wisconsin told MacIver News Service.

Wisconsin law has long taxed businesses on their personal property. The business community got a partial victory in the last session, when the Republican-controlled Legislature passed a $75 million repeal, exempting machinery, tools and patterns from the personal property tax code.

True fairness, Smith said, will come when the entire tax is wiped out.

“Doing so would impact every business on Main Street equally, without picking winners and losers,” he said.

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Foxconn’s on/off switch

The Milwaukee Business Journal:

Foxconn Technology Group on Friday said it will build an LCD screen fabrication facility in Mount Pleasant, a move that was put into question after reports earlier this week of the company reconsidering its plans.

The company said the decision came after “productive discussions between the White House and the company, and after a personal conversation between President Donald J. Trump and Chairman Terry Gou.” That Gen 6 plant will fabricate smaller, high-resolution LCD screens than the company had originally planned to make in its Mount Pleasant plant.

Reports from Reuters and Japanese news publication Nikkei Asian Review had called into question whether Foxconn would be fabricating any LCD screens in Wisconsin at all. The company earlier this week committed to building packaging plants, assembly facilities and research centers over the next 18 months in Mount Pleasant. But it fell short of committing to the Gen 6 fabrication plant to make TFT, or “thin-film-transistor” screens.

“Our decision is also based on a recent comprehensive and systematic evaluation to help determine the best fit for our Wisconsin project among TFT technologies,” Foxconn’s written statement Friday announced. “We have undertaken the evaluation while simultaneously seeking to broaden our investment across Wisconsin far beyond our original plans to ensure the company, our workforce, the local community, and the state of Wisconsin will be positioned for long-term success.”

That fabrication plant could break ground over the next 18 months, according to a Friday statement from Racine County, the village of Mount Pleasant and the Racine County Economic Development Corp. The company in April is expected to hold open houses regarding its upcoming construction plans.

Foxconn’s announcement ends a week where the firm’s Wisconsin plans attracted extreme scrutiny. A Reuters story on Tuesday raised speculation that Foxconn may not manufacture in Wisconsin at all, a point the company refuted.

Tim Sheehy, president of the Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce, described it as watching “a Twitter world collide with a dynamic, global business decision.”

Foxconn’s strategy in Wisconsin has evolved over the past six months, which is in keeping with the company’s reputation of being flexible and responsive to market conditions.

Foxconn first announced last year it was backing off from plans for a Gen 10.5 facility in Wisconsin to make very large LCD screens. Instead, the Gen 6 plant will produce small to mid-sized displays that would be used in televisions and by automakers.

“Over the last year at least, the capacity for the large LCD screen manufacturing in China has grown exponentially, and the cost has been cut in half,” Sheehy said.

The actual fabrication of screens in Wisconsin is significant. The company is building Gen 10.5 plants in China, but such operations don’t exist in the United States. Fabricating the screens, versus assembling products around the finished LCD displays, was expected to attract a new supply chain of manufacturers to Foxconn’s plant.

Sheehy said there is value to Foxconn’s research and development operations planned for Wisconsin, but the fabrication plant creates “an opportunity for supply chain and a more robust capital investment.”

Contractors over the last several months have leveled an estimated 3-million-square-foot plot of land near Interstate 94 in Mount Pleasant that was intended for the fabrication facility. That facility is to be the centerpiece of a larger manufacturing and technology campus Foxconn is developing.

That campus will also include extensive research and development operations to explore new applications of Foxconn’s technology in health care and other arenas. Foxconn earlier this week also planned to build a data center and rapid prototyping center at its Mount Pleasant campus.

Foxconn gets Covingtonned

I have decided to create a new verb: “to Covington,” which means to jump to conclusions about a particular thing well before even most of the facts are in. It comes from, of course, the Covington incident.

George Mitchell explains:

The lesson I try to keep in mind recalls the immediate reaction — almost all of it wrong — regarding the March for Life incident involving students from a Catholic high school in Kentucky.

Trying to keep an open mind, it will be helpful to read factual analyses that one hopes will be forthcoming from public sources such as the Legislative Fiscal Bureau and private researchers at the Wisconsin Policy Forum.

It is entirely possible, as Democrats today gleefully proclaim, that Wisconsin was snared by a gigantic bait and switch.  The most substantive support I have seen for that position is a statement attributed to Foxconn that the market has dramatically switched in the last 18 months. Really? All of a sudden it makes no sense to manufacture here what they said they would make?

Alternatively, the structure of the state’s contract with Foxconn might mean that both the benefits to the state and its costs are proportionally lessened. This will be true if the pledges were correct that the bulk of taxpayer subsidies were/are linked to tangible results.

I would have voted for the Foxconn “deal.” I considered it a risky big bet that was worth taking. I am prepared, once more facts are available, to acknowledge an error in judgment. Or, the truth might support a view that the potential of Foxconn still is a net benefit for Wisconsin. We don’t know enough yet to decide.

Three Racine County officials felt the need to correct yesterday’s hysterical media reports:

To date, Foxconn has invested over $200 million in Wisconsin. We have seen much of this
locally – including Foxconn’s investment in more than $100 million in construction contracts
that have transformed the project site, the completion of the first 120,000 square foot
building on the campus and the entire 3 million square foot pad that will serve as the base
for the next phase of construction, which will begin in Spring 2019.

Contrary to what was reported by Reuters, Foxconn reiterated to us, today, its commitment
to building an advanced manufacturing operation in Wisconsin, in addition to its commitment
to create 13,000 jobs and invest $10 billion in Racine County. As Foxconn has previously
shared, they are evaluating exactly which type of TFT technology will be manufactured in
Wisconsin but are proceeding with construction on related manufacturing, assembly and
research facilities on the site in 2019.

We understand that Foxconn must be nimble in responding to market changes to ensure the
long-term success of their Wisconsin operations. We fully expect that Foxconn will meet its
obligations to the State, County and Village.

Both the local and state development agreements are legally binding and include strong
protections for taxpayers. The state agreement, which was largely based on job creation,
ensures that Foxconn only receives state tax credits if it meets or exceeds its targeted hiring
amounts in any given year.

The local development agreement stipulates that, if, for any reason, Foxconn’s investment
on the campus falls short, the company remains obligated to support a minimum valuation
for the project of $1.4 billion, which will more than pay for all public improvements and
development costs for the project.

The Milwaukee Business Journal, which unlike most media knows something about business, adds:

Top Foxconn Technology Group executive Louis Wooreconfirmed for Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers and Milwaukee-area economic development officials Wednesday that the company is proceeding with its $10 billion project in Racine County while dismissing as inaccurate a Wednesday story from Reuters news service.

Woo made big news in Wisconsin via the Reuters report that the Taiwanese technology firm is reconsidering whether to produce LCD video screens there at all. Woo, who is special assistant to Foxconn founder and CEO Terry Gou, was quoted by Reuters as saying Foxconn may shelve plans for an assembly plant in Mount Pleasant and that “in Wisconsin, we’re not building a factory.”

Leaders of the Milwaukee 7 regional economic development group, which played an instrumental role in recruiting Foxconn, “were totally taken aback by the Reuters story,” said co-chairman Gale Klappa, who also is chairman and CEO of WEC Energy Group in Milwaukee. Klappa said he and Tim Sheehy, president of the Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce, emailed Woo Wednesday morning for a response to the Reuters article.

The information in the Reuters article was “completely inconsistent” with what Foxconn representatives have been communicating to the Milwaukee 7 about the Mount Pleasant project, Klappa said. Woo’s response eliminated Klappa’s concerns, as the Foxconn executive said he was quoted out of context, Klappa told the Milwaukee Business Journal.

A spokesperson for Reuters and Woo could not immediately be reached for comment.

Klappa said Woo told him and Sheehy that the company has not changed its commitment to expand in Wisconsin and still plans to hire up to 13,000 employees.

Klappa said Woo also called Evers Wednesday morning to give Evers assurances that the Reuters story does not represent the company’s plans.

Evers’ office issued a statement at 12:10 p.m. Wednesday from Wisconsin Department of Administration Secretary-designee Joel Brennan in response to the Reuters article.

“The administration is in regular, weekly communication with senior leadership at Foxconn; however, we were surprised to learn about this development,” Brennan said.

Some of the information in the Reuters story has been previously reported, Brennan noted. Other details about the continuing evolution of this project “will require further review and evaluation by our team,” Brennan said.

“Our team has been in contact with Foxconn since learning this news and will continue to monitor the project to ensure the company delivers on its promises to the people of Wisconsin,” Brennan said.

The Evers administration will continue to commit time, resources and personnel “to ensure that the interests of Wisconsin workers and taxpayers are protected and promoted by our approach to the Foxconn project,” Brennan said.

Evers told the Milwaukee Business Journal in January that he had held discussions in person and on the phone with Woo and Foxconn executive Alan Yeung in an effort to open lines of communication. The company is eligible for billions of dollars in state tax credits, depending on its total hiring and capital expenditures.

The Wisconsin Economic Development Corp., which administers the state’s contract with Foxconn, issued a statement Wednesday afternoon that the contract “provides the company the flexibility to make these business decisions, and at the same time, protects Wisconsin’s taxpayers.”

“Over the past 45 years, Foxconn’s success has been based on the company’s ability to foresee and adapt to technological advancements,” WEDC said. “Foxconn’s long-term success both globally and within Wisconsin is centered around the alignment of its business model with ever-changing global economic conditions, including evolving customer demands.”

Woo did reiterate his remarks from recent months that the company’s employment needs for its planned $10 billion campus in Mount Pleasant would likely require more engineers than assembly workers, which is a reversal from the company’s initial plans.

Klappa pointed out that Woo’s email said the company is rethinking what technology it will build in Wisconsin due to “the changing dynamics of the economy the past two years.”

Foxconn will proceed with six components of the Mount Pleasant project over the next 18 months, Woo said in the email, according to Klappa. They are:

• A liquid crystal module packaging plant;

• A high-precision molding factory;

• A system integration assembly facility;

• A rapid prototyping center;

• A research-and-development center;

• A high-performance data center; and

• A town center to support employees in Mount Pleasant.

The Reuters story also states that “a company source” said Foxconn would employ about 1,000 workers by 2020 rather than the initial plan to employee 5,200.

Klappa said Woo’s email did not specifically address that point. However, Klappa said he believes Woo’s assurances.

“Frankly, given Louis’ comments on the overall accuracy of the story, I’m dubious about anything” in the article, Klappa said.

The economic ignoramus who would be governor

I have lived in this state my entire life (sometimes, I don’t know why), and I have voted in every election since the 1984 presidential primary.

In that time, I do not believe I have ever run into a candidate as ignorant about business as Tony Evers, who thinks he should be governor. Perhaps this isn’t a surprise given the fact that Evers has never had a private-sector job in his entire life.

The same could be said about Scott Walker, except that Walker learned somewhere along the way how business works and therefore made policy changes from the steaming pile of disaster that was this state in the late 2000s after Gov. James Doyle’s $2 billion tax increase. Doyle was at least correct about the importance of imports to this state’s economy. For that matter, Democratic Gov. Tony Earl at least paid attention to the issue of the state’s business climate. Democratic Gov. Patrick Lucey enacted the manufacturing and equipment property tax exemption, which has been law since the mid-1970s, through Republican and Democratic governors and legislatures.

Evers started by proposing to eliminate what now is the manufacturing and agriculture tax credit so that he could have more money for his voter base, public employee unions, specifically teacher unions. He then proposed to eliminate the Wisconsin Economic Development Corp. and replace it with nothing, though his candidate for lieutenant governor, Rep. Mandela Barnes (D–Milwaukee), wants to bring back the Department of Commerce, which under Doyle wasn’t very effective in promoting the state as a place to do business. (Regulatory agencies are about taking away, not improving.)

Evers and other Democrats have been borderline racist, by their own standards, in condemning Foxconn, which is interesting given that some of the biggest fans of Foxconn’s coming to Wisconsin is the UW System. (Maybe that’s why Evers says he hates going to UW Board of Regents meetings.) Democrats would be falling all over themselves congratulating themselves for bringing Foxconn and its 3,000 to 13,000 jobs had their party made the deal.

Doubling down, Evers said earlier this week that a minimum wage of $15 per hour is “minimum,” and, hey, maybe it should be higher. Evers evidently wants to bankrupt every small business in this state, another sign that Evers doesn’t know the first thing about how business or the economy work.

 

From the party of “small” government

One reason why the Libertarian Party is likely to never gain a foothold in Wisconsin is that the poliitical culture of Wisconsin is extremely non-libertarian, with the party of big government currently in control over the party of bigger government.

Evidence comes from James Wigderson:

The state legislature could consider a bill that would require a liquor license for serving alcohol at many private events if the Tavern League and its allies in the legislature have their way. A draft billaimed at shutting down competition from agriculture event venues (AEV), often referred to as “wedding barns,” is being considered by the Legislative Council Study Committee on Alcohol Beverages Enforcement.

new memo released Tuesday afternoon from the Wisconsin Institute for Law & Liberty (WILL) warns that, just like a previous attempt by the Tavern League would have ended tailgating in Wisconsin, this bill could have some unintended consequences.

“The same folks who would’ve banned drinking beer while tailgating at Lambeau Field earlier this year are back at it again, only now their proposal would regulate drinking beer at private events like weddings and even at vacation homes and on pontoon boats,” said Lucas Vebber, deputy counsel for WILL. “Once again, this is an attempt by special interests in Madison to curtail freedom for Wisconsinites and use the heavy hand of government to shut down competition. What major policy problem this legislation solves continues to be a mystery to us.”

Under the current law, private events are not required to have liquor licenses provided that alcohol is not sold on the premises. This has allowed an emerging industry of alternative venues for private events, including on privately-owned farms that have rental space for weddings, corporate gatherings and other private events.

The Tavern League has sought to “level the playing field” by trying to force AEVs to get liquor licenses with all of the regulations that come with even though the wedding barn operators have no intention of operating bars that are open to the public. The requirement would not only be costly, forcing many of the AEVs to shut down, but in many communities the number of liquor licenses are extremely limited in availability because of a state law that enforces a quota on each municipality – a law also supported by the Tavern League.

The new proposed law could prohibit the legal consumption of alcohol at many private events and would require a license or permit for when people consume alcohol on rental property.

The Legislative Council Study Committee on Alcohol Beverages Enforcement studying the draft bill targeting AEVs is dominated by the Tavern League and its allies, including the chairman Rep. Rob Swearingen (R-Rhinelander), a supper club owner and a former president of the Tavern League. No owner of an AEV was allowed to serve on the committee.

The study committee has discussed a number of issues regarding AEVs, including many issues that have nothing to do with state alcohol policy, in order to justify state regulation of the wedding barns to limit competition for the Tavern League.

However, the draft bill being considered by the committee may do more than attack the wedding barn industry. The bill is very similar to the proposed legislation that would have had the unintended consequences of banning tailgating at major sporting events such as Packer and Brewers games. According to Vebber, the bill now carves out exemptions for those types of events.

But the legislation still has issues beyond its purpose to try to kill a part of the Wisconsin economy. It could affect everything from drinking outside major concerts to even banning drinking alcohol at deer hunting campsites.

“This is the most interesting [exemption] I think: vacation rental properties or any other temporary lodging that is used for overnight accommodations if the property is furnished with sufficient beds for all adult guests to sleep,” Vebber said. “They’re saying, you don’t have to get a permit for a vacation rental property but only if that property has enough beds for the adult guests to sleep? So, basically you can have people over at your rental property, but only if you have enough beds for everyone to sleep in.”

Vebber explained how this could be a problem.

“So if I go up north, and your family and my family go up north, and we rent two cabins right next to each other, and they’re both one bedroom cabins and the kids are going to sleep on the couch,” Vebber said. “I cannot have you and your wife over to my cabin for a dinner party and serve you a Miller Lite. It’s a vacation rental property, I don’t have a permit, and I don’t have enough beds for all of the adult guests.”

Vebber said the result may not have been the intention of the draft bill, but it’s what happens when you try to craft a bill to serve a special interest like the Tavern League.

The legislation could even affect Wisconsin’s deer hunting traditions by requiring owners of land that rent out to hunters to get alcohol licenses if the hunters decide they want to drink beer at their camp unless there are “sufficient beds” for every adult at the campsite.

“Rented hunting land may even fall under this requirement if you plan to stay overnight,” the WILL memo states. “So if this proposal passes, be careful cracking a beer at deer camp after a long day in the field.”

The WILL memo also asks about the enforcement of the proposed law.

“There is also the question of how the state would intend to enforce such requirements: will revenue agents be knocking on doors to count beds during your next dinner party?” the memo asked.

The government giveth, the government (forces businesses to) taketh

Republicans, not Democrats, passed the $100-per-child tax rebate earlier this year and the sales tax holiday last month.

But as the party in charge in Madison, Republicans are responsible for what the MacIver Institute reports:

Wisconsinites hunting for back-to-school deals are out of luck for yet another year thanks to the state’s minimum markup law, which outlaws sale prices that are too low.

The minimum markup law, formally known as the Unfair Sales Act, bans retailers from selling merchandise below cost. The law was originally passed back in 1939 and also requires a 9 percent price markup on specific items like alcohol, tobacco and gasoline.

Unfortunately for back-to-school shoppers, Wisconsinites are forced to pay for this archaic law that’s still on the books despite multiple attempts to repeal it.

According to advertisements obtained by the MacIver Institute from the end of August, Walmart stores in Milwaukee charged higher prices for a number of common back-to-school items compared with other Walmart stores in  Iowa and Michigan.

Like in past years, families in Milwaukee buying basic items like notebooks, markers, and crayons can expect to pay anywhere from 14 to 146 percent more than Walmart shoppers in Dubuque, Iowa, and Kalamazoo, Mich.

A 24-pack of Crayola Crayons posted the largest price difference, costing 146 percent more in Milwaukee than in cities in the neighboring states. The same was true for similar basic school supplies.

Parents picking up a one-subject notebook at Walmart in Dubuque, for example, only paid 25 cents. That same notebook cost 40 cents in Milwaukee – a 60 percent gap. Crayola markers cost 97 cents in Kalamazoo, but thanks to the archaic minimum markup law, those same markers cost $1.97 in Milwaukee, a whopping 103 percent difference.

A Texas Instruments graphing calculator cost $100 in Milwaukee, but just $88 in both Iowa and Michigan.

The added costs stack up. A basic shopping list would cost 17 percent more for a Milwaukee back-to-school shopper than in nearby states – 85 percent more not including the calculator.

Efforts to repeal the antiquated minimum markup law stretch back several years. Most recently, a partial repeal bill led by Sen. Vukmir and Rep. Jim Ott, and joined by Sen. Dave Craig and Rep. Dave Murphy, was the first repeal attempt to receive a hearing in the legislature.

“What are you hoping to accomplish by keeping this outdated law on the books?” Todd Peterson, regional general manager for Walmart Stores in Wisconsin, asked the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Small Business and Tourism. Much has changed since the law was enacted in 1939, he and his colleagues argued.

But as with previous attempts at repealing the anti-consumer law, that bill went no further.

Even though minimum markup repeal has hit a wall in the Legislature, a 2015 poll found that Wisconsinites are tired of paying higher prices and want the law finally taken off the books. The poll found 80 percent of respondents had an unfavorable view of the minimum markup law when told “Wisconsin residents are required to pay more for many on-sale items than residents in neighboring states simply because of this 75-year-old law.”

Respondents were just as angry when told that “the law forbids retailers from selling to consumers below cost and also requires that gasoline retailers sell gas to consumers with a minimum 9 percent markup.”

The minimum markup law also outlaws many of the discounts posted on popular national bargain hunting days like Black Friday or Amazon Prime Day, which in Wisconsin could better be called “Amazon Crime Day.”

While this year shoppers in Wisconsin enjoyed a sales tax holiday on many back-to-school items earlier in August, bargain hunters would save money year-round on virtually all products if not for the minimum markup law.

With repeal efforts once again stalled at the doors of the Legislature, bargain hunters should beware: Wisconsin’s Price Police remain on the prowl during yet another back-to-school shopping season.

The next time you see a candidate for this fall’s election, ask him or her whether he or she favors repeal of the minimum markup law, and if not, why not.

T-minus 75 days and counting

A new Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin voters finds a tight race for governor following last week’s statewide primary elections. Among likely voters (that is, those who say they are certain to vote), incumbent Republican Scott Walker receives 46 percent, Democrat Tony Evers receives 46 percent and Libertarian Phil Anderson 6 percent. Only 2 percent say they lack a preference or do not lean to a candidate.

Among likely voters in the race for the Wisconsin U.S. Senate seat on the ballot in November, 49 percent support the incumbent, Democrat Tammy Baldwin, and 47 percent support Republican Leah Vukmir, while 3 percent say they lack a preference or do not lean toward a candidate.

Among all registered voters surveyed in the poll, the race for governor remains tight, with Walker at 46 percent, Evers at 44 percent and Anderson with 7 percent.

There is a wider margin among all registered voters in the Senate race, with Baldwin receiving 51 percent and Vukmir 43 percent.

Awareness of Evers and Vukmir has increased among registered voters since the last Marquette Law School Poll in July. Forty-six percent lack an opinion of Evers, down from 60 percent in July. For Vukmir, 48 percent lack an opinion now, compared to 66 percent in July.

Among likely voters only, 35 percent lack an opinion of Evers and 41 percent lack an opinion of Vukmir.

Evers is viewed favorably among 38 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 27 percent. Among all registered voters 31 percent have a favorable view and 23 percent an unfavorable opinion.

Vukmir has a 30 percent favorable rating and a 29 percent unfavorable rating among likely voters while among registered voters 25 percent rate her favorably and 26 percent rate her unfavorably.

Few respondents lack opinions of the incumbents. Among all registered voters, 5 percent lack an opinion of Walker and 17 percent have no opinion of Baldwin. For likely voters, 4 percent have no opinion of Walker and 11 percent have no opinion of Baldwin.

Walker is viewed favorably among 49 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 47 percent. Among all registered voters 49 percent have a favorable view and 45 percent an unfavorable opinion.

Baldwin has a 46 percent favorable rating and a 42 percent unfavorable rating among likely voters while among registered voters 43 percent rate her favorably and 40 percent rate her unfavorably.

The governor’s race results are similar to what the poll found at this point in the 2014 cycle. The August 2014 Marquette poll showed Democrat Mary Burke with a 2-point lead over Walker among likely voters, but Walker leading by about 3 points among registered voters.

All things considered, this is good news at least for Walker, and maybe for Vukmir too. Walker predicted last week he’d be behind in the first post-primary polls, but he’s not in the poll that is more credible than other polls.

That point about where Walker was four years ago is important as well. Four years ago voters didn’t know who Mary Burke was, but they came to discover her overstated involvement in her family business and other things that proved she wasn’t ready to be governor.

Four years later, Evers is going to have to explain a few things, such as what James Wigderson reports:

Americans for Prosperity is spending $1.8 million on an advertising campaign to remind voters Evers actually praised Governor Scott Walker’s last education budget before the schools superintendent decided to run for governor himself. Evers was for Walker’s budget before he was against it.

Thanks to his pro-growth policies, Governor Walker has invested millions in our schools and received a lot of praise:
A “pro-kid budget …” 
An important step forward …” 
“… Commitment for K-12 education is good news …”  
So who said those things? Tony Evers. 
But now that Evers if running for office, he’s trying to take back his praise.
The truth? Governor Scott Walker is improving Wisconsin education … and Tony Evers knows it.
Paid for by Americans for Prosperity. 
Not authorized by any candidate, candidate’s agent or committee.

Eric Bott, the state director of Americans for Prosperity in Wisconsin, commented on the flip-flop by Evers in a release announcing the ad buy.

“Tony Evers had it exactly right when he praised Governor Walker’s education budget as a ‘pro-kid budget,’ an ‘important step forward,’ and ‘good news,’” Bott said. “Now that he wants Scott Walker’s job, Evers is backpedaling so fast, I’m worried he’s going to end up in Minnesota before too long.”

There is concern over whether Walker could suck resources from other Republicans, specifically either Vukmir or Attorney General Brad Schimel, whose opponent should be elected if you believe in lawsuits for the sake of lawsuits instead of, you know, law and order.

More from the poll:

When asked the most important issue facing the state, 24 percent of registered voters pick jobs and the economy, 22 percent choose K-12 education and 19 percent say health coverage is their most important issue. No other issue reached double digits as “the most important,” although the condition of roads ranked fourth, with 9 percent of registered voters selecting it.

When voters were asked for their second-most-important issue, the condition of roads rose to the top three most-frequent answers, with K-12 education first at 18 percent, jobs and the economy at 17 percent, the condition of roads at 16 percent and health coverage at 15 percent.

I bet the economy number is actually bigger with voters. In fact, in my lifetime, every election has been decided by the economy, or more accurately voters’ perception of the economy. If voters think the economy is doing well, they vote for incumbents. If they don’t think the economy is doing well, they don’t vote for incumbents.

Fifty-three percent of Wisconsin registered voters see the state as headed in the right direction while 41 percent think the state is off on the wrong track. In July, 52 percent said right direction and 42 percent said wrong track.

Walker’s job approval among registered voters stands at 48 percent, with 45 disapproving. … Among likely voters, 50 percent approve and 47 percent disapprove.

All of this is generally in keeping with what was reported here last week — that among “swing” counties Walker is doing pretty well.

There is also this, though how it will affect this election is unclear, as pointed out by Facebook Friend Nathan Schacht:

More Dems than Republicans are against tariffs.
58% of Republicans think steel tariffs will help the economy, 9% of Dems think they will help.

On free trade, more Dems than Republicans think free trade agreements are a good thing:
45% of Republicans think they are good,
72% of Democrats think they are good.

So the Democrats are more conservative on trade issues now…good Lord.

I’m not sure “more conservative” is as correct as “more free-market,” except that Democrats are certainly not free-market on such other issues as education and health care. One wonders if Democrats have suddenly realized the virtues of free trade, or if Democrats are now free-trade because Trump isn’t. I think I know the answer by posing the question of whether Democrats have discovered the virtues of free markets in education and health care.

 

When a Democrat owns a conservative talk station …

RightWisconsin asks:

Is this the end of conservative talk radio on WTMJ-AM 620? The Milwaukee Business Journal reported Friday morning that Scripps has sold their radio operations WTMJ-AM (620) and WKTI-FM (94.5) to Craig Karmazin, the owner of Good Karma, the parent company of Milwaukee’s ESPN sports-talk station WAUK-AM (540).

WTMJ-AM is the former home to noted conservative author and media personality Charlie Sykes, a former editor of RightWisconsin. WTMJ-AM is currently home to two conservative talk radio personalities, Steve Scaffidi and Jeff Wagner.

In addition to Karmazin’s background in sports talk radio, putting the conservative talk radio format at WTMJ-AM at risk is the new owner’s political leanings. In a memo from Edge Messaging owner Brian Fraley to his clients, obtained by RightWisconsin, Karmazin’s ties to the Democratic party are spelled out.

“A quick check of FEC data indicates Good Karma’s owner, Craig Karamzin, is a major Democratic donor whose support for political campaigns include donations to President Obama, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Dan Kohl, the Democrat currently challenging Republican Congressman Glenn Grothman,” Fraley wrote to his clients. “A look at his record of donating to state candidates here shows he’s been a frequent contributor to Milwaukee [mayor] Tom Barrett and former Democratic Governor Jim Doyle.”

However, Fraley predicts that Karamzin will not try to create a liberal talk radio station in the Milwaukee market at WTMJ-AM.

“That format has not proved to be profitable and I would be very surprised if Good Karma would take this incredible asset that is WTMJ and fritter away its value with such a move,” Fraley said. “So while any forecasting as to the direction of the heritage radio station is pure speculation at this point, I would not be surprised to see WTMJ evolve into a 24-hour news station, that also broadcasts live sports as the flagship of the Brewers, Packers and Bucks. That would be a smart business move.”

An acquaintance of mine familiar with the Milwaukee media market — let’s call him Deep Voice — predicts that some of WTMJ’s current voices may be out the door because WTMJ apparently has a lot of high salaries. Deep Voice also thinks there miight be changes at WKTI, whose ratings haven’t been great since its change from its adult-hits format and name The Lake. WKTI was rated 10th in the market in June, and second among country stations.

Good Karma owns WAUK (540 AM) in Milwaukee and WTLX (100.5) in Columbus, branded as “ESPN Milwaukee” and “ESPN Madison,” respectively, along with WBEV (1430 AM) and WXRO (95.3 FM) in Beaver Dam. Karmazin’s thing appears to be sports, given the several ESPN affiliate stations he owns, and getting WTMJ, the originating station of the Packers, Brewers and Bucks, seems like an expansion of that concept. Karmazin’s statement on WBEV/WXRO’s website says:

“The heritage, prestige, and team at the stations, in addition to their incredible sports partnerships, fit our commitment to provide best-in-class opportunities for our teammates, content for our fans, and solutions for our marketing partners.”

Karmazin formerly owned what now is WRRD (1510 AM), which calls itself Resistance Radio, in Milwaukee, which is simulcasted on WTTN (1580) in Columbus. It’s not clear if Karmazin still owns WTTN.

Two thoughts come to mind. Good Karma might be hesitant to make wholesale changes given that WTMJ is the second rated station in the market, and is not really likely to be able to make format changes to get to number one. (Number one is a classic hits station, and WTMJ isn’t going back to music.) Those concerned about the possible loss of Scaffidi and Wagner still have a conservative-talk station, WISN (1130 AM), which has twice the conservative talkers in Jay Weber, Vicki McKenna (also heard in Madison), Dan O’Donnell and Mark Belling.

 

Well, Democrats?

Investor’s Business Daily:

Rather than rooting on the strong economy, Democrats have taken to ignoring it, belittling it or, like Bill Maher did over the weekend, rooting for a recession. The extent to which Trump critics will go is truly mind-boggling.

The unemployment rate is at 49-year lows overall, and lower than ever for African-Americans. Household incomes are at record highs. The U.S. reclaimed its No. 1 rank in competitiveness. Economists are revising their growth forecasts upward. Optimism is at levels not seen in more than a decade.

Clearly the economy is doing well. And what’s more, the public is increasingly crediting President Trump for it — as they should, since much of the turnaround is due to his dumping Obamanomics.

But what’s a Democrat hoping to reclaim the House majority in November to do?

One is to ignore the economy altogether. So, Democrats are trying to turn attention to things like ObamaCare premiums or alleged corruption in the Trump administration.

Ignoring the economy will be tough, however, particularly if GDP growth comes in strong in Q2 and unemployment continues to fall.

The second option is to belittle it.

Nancy Pelosi, having dismissed the tax-cut-fueled raises and bonuses that millions of workers received as “crumbs,” is now dismissing the good economic news as no big deal. Why? “Because of the wage stagnation.”

“Our economy,” she said, “will never fully reach its possibilities unless we increase the consumer confidence.”

The army of media fact-checkers must have been asleep when she said this, since her claims are so easy to debunk.

Average hourly wages climbed 2.7% in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And as we noted in this space recently, median household income is at historic highs.

Meanwhile, every survey shows confidence levels at or approaching new highs since Trump took office.

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, currently at 53.9, has averaged 53.5 under Trump, compared with 47 during President Obama’s entire second term. (Anything over 50 is optimistic).

The Consumer Confidence Index is currently at 128, which is 25 points higher than it ever reached under Obama, and higher than it’s been in 17 years.

Dismissing this good economic news as meaningless — after spending eight years proclaiming how great the stagnant economy was under Obama — isn’t going to dispel the notion that Democrats are out of touch with working families.

The third option is to admit openly what many Democrats no doubt feel privately: That a good recession is what the party needs to reclaim its former glory. After all, it did get Obama elected president.

Over the weekend, HBO talk show host Bill Maher spoke the words out load.

“I feel like the bottom has to fall out at some point,” he said, talking about the booming economy. “And by the way, I’m hoping for it because one way you get rid of Trump is a crashing economy.

“Sorry if that hurts people, but it’s either root for a recession or you lose your democracy.”

Let’s leave aside the glaring logical fallacy Maher commits with his false dilemma, and ponder what he is saying.

Maher would, if he could, throw millions of people into unemployment and poverty, watch as hard-earned savings vanish, wages stagnate and hope gets crushed, if that might keep Trump from winning re-election.

Wow.

Of course, it’s easy for Maher to wish that, since he’s already made his millions attacking Republicans. But just how many of his fellow Trump-loathing Democrats secretly feel the same way?

Reporters love to force Republican politicians to answer for anything outrageous that a conservative says. Shouldn’t these same reporters, to prove their lack of political bias, press every single Democrat running for office in November to condemn Maher’s economic death wish?

That question should be asked of Wisconsin Democrats running against Gov. Scott Walker and other Republicans as well. (To normal people the definition of “fail” is not insufficient government spending or regulation in your favorite area of either.)

How to correct a Trump error

National Review:

Several of the groups that make up the Koch network are getting ready for a long-haul push against the Trump administration’s tariffs and to promote the cause of free trade between the United States and other countries.

Freedom Partners Chamber of Commerce, Americans for Prosperity, and The LIBRE Initiative today announced a multi-year, multimillion-dollar initiative to champion the far-reaching benefits of trade and the consequences of tariffs.

The campaign will include “paid media, activist education and grassroots mobilization, lobbying and policy analysis — all intended to transform the way Washington and the rest of the country consider and value trade with other nations.”

“This campaign makes a clear statement: Trade is a major priority for our network,” said James Davis, executive vice president of Freedom Partners. “We will work aggressively to educate policymakers and others about the facts. Trade lifts people out of poverty and improves lives. It is critical to America’s future prosperity and our consumers, workers and companies. Tariffs and other trade barriers make us poorer. They raise prices for those who can least afford it. That’s why this issue is so important. This announcement is a demonstration of our long-term commitment to advance common-sense trade policies that will ensure America’s brightest days are ahead, and to directly confront the protectionist ideas that would hold us back.”

The Koch network remained neutral in the 2016 presidential election, but by January 2018 was largely pleased with what it had seen in the first year of the Trump administration.

“The Trump administration has taken some incredibly positive steps for the American economy, but tariffs will undercut that progress and needlessly hamstring our full economic potential,” said Tim Phillips, president of Americans for Prosperity. “There are better ways to negotiate trade deals than by punishing American consumers and businesses with higher costs. Instead of pursuing protectionist policies that we already know don’t work, let’s help everyone win by expanding trade, opening new markets and lowering costs.”

“The taxes and trade barriers imposed by our government on U.S. consumers raise their cost of living and impose unnecessary costs on American firms in competition with others based abroad,” said Daniel Garza, president of the LIBRE Initiative. “Hispanics and low-income workers are among the most badly hurt by this drag on economic growth and government-mandated price increases. We are pleased to stand with those who understand how greatly America benefits from trade — and how badly hurt we are by tariffs and other barriers.”

The good news for the Koch network effort is that, at least in the abstract, Americans think well of free trade. A March Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that among both “party Republicans” and “Trump Republicans,” “more than half of those in each group see trade as a potentially good thing rather than an economic threat.” Of course, the Trump administration would argue it doesn’t oppose free trade in theory, merely bad agreements signed in the past.

The Koch brothers are correct, and Republican opponents of free trade are wrong. Wisconsin, as has been reported in numerous places, overwhelmingly benefits from free trade.

 

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