• We’re number 13! (But fifth in the Big T1e2n)

    January 10, 2014
    Badgers, US business

    It was a bummer, though not particularly surprising, that Wisconsin lost the Capital One Bowl in Orlando to South Carolina.

    In fact, the Badgers were really only the fifth best team in the Big Ten, or 12, or 14 next season. That’s not as measured in football; that’s measured in finances, as the Wall Street Journal shows:

    The only real surprise to me is that Iowa brings in that much more football revenue than Wisconsin with a smaller stadium. The other Big Ten universities ranked higher than Wisconsin all have larger stadiums, as does Penn State.

     

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  • Presty the DJ for Jan. 10

    January 10, 2014
    Music

    The number one British single today in 1957 was the same single as the previous week, though performed by a different act:

    The number one British single today in 1958:

    The number one album for the fifth consecutive week today in 1976 was “Chicago IX,” which was actually “Chicago’s Greatest Hits”:

    (more…)

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  • The first columnist in the family

    January 9, 2014
    media

    This Christmas season included some sad news in our family. From the Morrison County (Minn.) Record:

    Evangeline Vangie Gwost, age 99, of Little Falls, passed away Thursday, Dec. 19, 2013, at St. Ottos Care Center in Little Falls. …

    Evangeline Vangie Merchlewicz was born Aug. 2, 1914, in Little Falls, the daughter of Joseph and Frances (Sniezek) Merchlewicz. She grew up in Little Falls and graduated from Little Falls High School, Class of 1932. Following her schooling, she worked for the Farm Security Administration in Little Falls and across northwestern Minnesota. During World War II, she was a court reporter at Camp Ripley. She was engaged to George Gwost before he went to serve during the War in the Pacific. Upon his return, the couple was married April 10, 1945, at Our Lady of Lourdes Catholic Church. During their honeymoon, they went to the Busch Gardens in St. Louis. It was there they got their initial inspiration to start a rose garden which grew to 500 bushes in their retirement. Vangie worked as a professional secretary for many companies in Little Falls and retired from Morrison County Social Services. Her retirement was short lived and she began working at the Morrison County Record as a proofreader. She was soon asked to begin a cooking column, Whats Cookin In The County, which she began in 1981 and continued until her second retirement in 1996. Vangies commitment to her church was life-long. She began playing the organ in the third grade and played until 2002. She and George were life-long members of the Senior Choir. She also played at St. Ottos for 10 years. Vangie was instrumental in the launch of the basement remodeling committee which she co-chaired with her husband, George. They published a cookbook, which she co-edited with Geri Wotzka, to fund the basement renovation. Vangie enjoyed working, cooking, flower gardening, was famous for her kolaches, dancing, music and with George, hosted many parties in their backyard log cabin. …

    Vangie was preceded in death by her parents; husband, George (May 6, 2008); infant daughter, Mary Suzanne; brothers, Vincent, Dominic, John, Jerome Merchlewicz and sisters, Celia Rue, Helen Trebiatowski, Sr. Vincent (Lucille) DePaul, Esther Prestegard and Leona Janousek.

    Vangie was my great-aunt, and, as far as I know, the first columnist in the family. The brothers and sisters were my great-uncles and great-aunts (five of whom, I believe, I met), and Esther was my grandmother, who died before I was born. I found out about her cooking column on one of our Little Falls trips, so I mentioned that to the cooking columnist at the newspaper I worked at in college, so Vangie got to be a guest columnist in Monona, and perhaps our cooking columnist was a guest columnist in Little Falls.

    Vangie was the last of her family to pass on to the great Polish family reunion in the sky. Celia lived in a big white house in Minneapolis within view of a SuperAmerica gas station sign, which fascinated the four-year-old who visited one summer. On a previous trip, the story goes, my father took my brother and me for a walk, and for some reason I decided to take a slightly different path, into a pond, to where the only thing floating was my hat. I don’t remember that, but I do remember this sequence of events on the aforementioned 1969 trip:

    • We visited the Como Park Zoo with Celia and Uncle Oscar. (Dad got to drive their late 1960s Plymouth Fury.) One of the stops was to the bird area, where a peacock stuck his head through the fence and bit me on my middle finger.
    • That trip included a visit to one of Minnesota’s giant statues of Paul Bunyan and Babe the Blue Ox (possibly in Brainerd). On the way, our brand new 1969 Chevrolet Nomad started knocking loudly enough to scare a back-seat passenger. The nearest Chevy station claimed the brand-new car needed a new engine. The owner of the car decided it was bad gas, and avoided the former Consolidated brand thereafter.

    Aunt Helen, who lived in Little Falls, owned a Buick convertible that apparently had included as a previous passenger one Hubert H. Humphrey, which is why she kept it. Her late husband was the police chief in Little Falls, and my father would visit their son during the summer. I think Herman died before I was born, although I heard enough times the story of one of his officers who found a stray cat and put it in his squad car. Said officer found out that transporting cats in cars is a bad idea for the driver and, in his case, his squad, which overturned during said transport attempt. I’m told that Herman couldn’t usually get the whole story out because he’d start laughing and then start crying from laughing.

    It is said you should write about what you know. Vangie knew cooking, at epic quantities. She once admitted she stayed up all night to cook for said reunions. Every Labor Day weekend for many years she and George would host enormous family reunions at their house outside Little Falls. Uncles John and Jerry (the owner of the second English springer spaniel I ever saw, the first being our own) would sit at a table and drink beer and brandy. Some number of their four children and 10 grandchildren, plus other nieces and nephews would be there — all cousins of mine to the extent I could remember who belonged to whom. Food was eaten, adult beverages were drunk, and music was played and sung. (Including by me when cousin Mary Ann gave me her trumpet to play.)

    The reunions were so large by the late 1970s that the family rented out Lindbergh State Park. One year, the Morrison County Sheriff’s Department threw us out of said Lindbergh State Park. How do you fix that? You get one of the family to marry a sheriff’s deputy. He’s now the sheriff of Morrison County.

    Someone once said that Merchlewicz family reunions, weddings and funerals were all the same event. I can’t speak to the latter, but that seemed to apply to the first two. George and Vangie sang at Mary Ann’s wedding (which was not at Lindbergh State Park). I forgot the reason, but that wedding included this joke: A duck walks into a pharmacy and asks the pharmacist for a tube of Chapstick. (If this was a Wisconsin joke, it would be Carmex, of course.) The pharmacist gave the duck his Chapstick, and then the duck said, “Put it on my bill.” In keeping with that joke, when the priest presented the new couple to the congregation, a bunch of the family was wearing duck bills on their noses.

    (The worst thing I can say about this family came from this wedding: A bunch of us went out that weekend to a Little Falls bar. They were drinking Grain Belt beer on tap. Appallingly bad beer.)

    This is the sort of thing you see less of these days, for two reasons. Vangie was one of 10 children. Vangie and George had five children, one of whom died at birth, and the other of whom gave Vangie and George a total of 10 grandchildren. Those children live from Minnesota to Washington. Smaller and more spread out families make big family events more difficult.

    That doesn’t mean that family traditions can’t continue to future generations. Every Christmas, we get from my aunt two pans of kolaches, which are Polish pastry with a drop of fruit inside. You can guess where my aunt got the recipe. I just finished ours yesterday.

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  • This passes for good news these days

    January 9, 2014
    Culture, US politics

    National Review’s Jim Geraghty writes about Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who reports:

    “I spend more time with voters than anybody else,” Luntz says. “I do more focus groups than anybody else. I do more dial sessions than anybody else. I don’t know [squat] about anything, with the exception of what the American people think.”

    It was what Luntz heard from the American people that scared him. They were contentious and argumentative. They didn’t listen to each other as they once had. They weren’t interested in hearing other points of view. They were divided one against the other, black vs. white, men vs. women, young vs. old, rich vs. poor. “They want to impose their opinions rather than express them,” is the way he describes what he saw. “And they’re picking up their leads from here in Washington.” Haven’t political disagreements always been contentious, I ask? “Not like this,” he says. “Not like this.”

    Luntz knew that he, a maker of political messages and attacks and advertisements, had helped create this negativity, and it haunted him. But it was Obama he principally blamed. The people in his focus groups, he perceived, had absorbed the president’s message of class divisions, haves and have-nots, of redistribution. …

    The entitlement he now hears from the focus groups he convenes amounts, in his view, to a permanent poisoning of the electorate—one that cannot be undone. “We have now created a sense of dependency and a sense of entitlement that is so great that you had, on the day that he was elected, women thinking that Obama was going to pay their mortgage payment, and that’s why they voted for him,” he says. “And that, to me, is the end of what made this country so great.”

    To which Geraghty replies:

    Imagine if the most bland and milquetoast president had been in office since January 20, 2009. Instead of electing uber-celebrity munificent Sun-King Barack Obama, we elected President Boring Center-Left Conventional Wisdom — the genetic hybrid of David Gergen, David Brooks, Tom Friedman, and Cokie Roberts.

    America would still have endured the Wall Street crash of late 2008 and the Great Recession. This recession (still ongoing, in the minds and experiences of millions of Americans) was driven by many factors but largely from the bursting of the housing bubble and the mortgage securities and asset-backed derivatives that came out of that. We can argue that better policies would have generated a more significant recovery from 2009 to 2012, but indisputably, America’s economy fell far and fast, and climbing back up to, say, 2007 levels of employment and average household-retirement savings was destined to be a long, slow, tough slog. All those folks employed in the housing bubble — the home builders, the construction guys, the realtors, the house-flippers, all that real-estate-advertising revenue, etc. — had to find some other work. And with the exception of the energy sector, there hasn’t been much of a boom in the U.S. economy in the past five years.

    At the same time, we spent most of 2001 to 2009 absorbing millions of illegal immigrants, and the unskilled labor was flooding the market for the few unskilled labor jobs out there. The multi-decade decline of American manufacturing hasn’t abated much, schools and universities continued to pump out new American workers who are only partially prepared for the reality of the modern job market, and new technology continues to wreak havoc in established industries (ask Newsweek). Competition from cheaper labor overseas continues unabated. The era of spending your career at one company is gone. The era of traditional defined-contribution pension plans is gone. The era of a college degree automatically providing a ticket to a white-collar job and middle-class lifestyle is gone.

    Economic anxiety is baked in the cake in American life right now. It’s not that surprising that a lot of our fellow countrymen are receptive to a message seeking scapegoats. In other words, even under President Cokie Gergen Friedman Brooks, Luntz would be seeing a similar cranky, resentful, demanding mood in the electorate. This president may be particularly skilled at opportunistically exploiting that anxiety to further his agenda — in fact, it may be the only thing he’s really good at — but it’s not like he invented it, nor like he’s the only one to ever practice it (remember Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich calling Mitt Romney a ‘vulture capitalist’?), nor like he’ll be the last to try it.

    If Luntz is right that a large chunk of the American electorate has turned angry, entitled, resentful, and spiteful — and I’ll bet a lot of us have suspected this in the past year or five — then it is indeed ominous for the next few elections, and suggests American life will get worse before it gets better.

    But there’s also an upside to this, at least for us. Because it means large numbers of our fellow countrymen are embracing a philosophy and attitude that is destined to fail them and leave them miserable. Anybody who sits and waits for the government to improve his life is going to get stuck in endless circles of disappointment, anger, self-destructive rage, and despair.

    We would be foolish if we told ourselves that being conservative means we’ve gotlife all figured out. We all have our flaws, our foibles, our sins, and our moments of not practicing what we preach. But if you’re conservative, you’ll probably manage to avoid certain mistakes and pitfalls on this journey called life.

    If you’re conservative, you’ve probably learned that there’s no substitute for hard work. Even great talent can only get you so far, particularly if you don’t apply yourself. Yes, luck is a factor, but we also acknowledge that old saying, “the harder I work, the luckier I get.”

    If you’re conservative, you probably at least try to embrace individual responsibility — meaning you realize the quality of your life is primarily up to you — and there’s no point in blaming mommy or daddy, no point in blaming the boss, no point in blaming society at large, no point in complaining that life isn’t fair. It isn’t. We can’t control a lot of things. The only thing we can control is how we react to things.

    If you’re conservative, you hopefully don’t spend much time worrying about or grumbling about somebody else who’s doing well for themselves. You want to figure out how to join them! Or at least “do well” enough for yourself and your family, and maybe have a little something left over to help out somebody who really needs it.

    If you’re conservative, you may or may not believe in a higher power, but you probably believe in right and wrong and you’re wary of people who talk about the world as a murky blur of grey and endorse a moral relativism. You know doing the wrong thing catches up with you sooner or later. You know the road to hell is paved with good intentions, and life’s bad guys are always insisting that the ends justify the means.

    If you’re conservative, you believe there’s evil in the world, and we’re not likely to successfully sweet-talk with it, negotiate with it, ignore it, or reason with it. Confronting it, on terms most beneficial to us, or containing it seem to be the best options. …

    Both liberals and conservatives were appalled by the administration’s management and handling of Obamacare rollout, but only the liberals were surprised. (Well, maybe we were surprised at just how epic the failure was.) We don’t expect government to do a lot of things right. We don’t count on it to immanentize the eschaton — to build God’s Kingdom, or utopia, on earth. But year in and year out, the Left always convinces itself anew that government can do it — even after it completely botches a website and fails to tell the president before the unveiling.

     

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  • Presty the DJ for Jan. 9

    January 9, 2014
    Music

    The number one single today in 1955 was banned by ABC Radio stations because it was allegedly in bad taste:

    The number one album today in 1961 wasn’t a music album — Bob Newhart’s “The Button Down Mind Strikes Back!”

    The number one album today in 1965 was “Beatles ’65”:

    (more…)

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  • Люди, которые не могут написать интервью у людей, которые не могут говорить для людей, которые не умеют читать

    January 8, 2014
    US politics

    Frank Zappa once said that “Most rock journalism is people who can’t write interviewing people who can’t talk for people who can’t read.”

    That certainly describes Rolling Stone magazine when it wanders off music into areas where it completely lacks what the lawyers call “standing.”

    Instead of wasting your time reading Jesse Myerson‘s рубец, read Seth Davis‘ demolition of Myerson’s навоз:

    Over the weekend, Jesse Myerson, a twenty-something former Occupy organizer, finally stumbled upon a foolproof recipe for success for today’s struggling Millennials. The recipe? Communism, naturally.

    Myerson, whose Twitter bio includes the hashtag #FULLCOMMUNISM (for when fractional communism just can’t murder people quickly enough), listed five economic reforms that he thinks every Millennial should demand: Guaranteed jobs, guaranteed income, no more private real estate, no more private assets at all, and a public bank in every state (a great place to store all those financial assets you no longer own). If that sounds eerily similar to a Yoko Ono-infused brainstorming session by John Lennon, it’s because it is eerily similar to a Yoko Ono-infused brainstorming session by John Lennon. …

    Look, lots of people think everybody else’s stuff should be their stuff. Unfortunately for Myerson, most of those people drink juice out of a box and think Cookie Monster and Dora the Explorer are real people. There’s a time and a place to brag that you’ve finally figured out how to make communism work, and it’s your college dorm room at 3:00 a.m. If you publish a serious call for the reconstruction of several core pillars of communism barely two decades after the dissolution of the Soviet Union (this is the point at which Myerson would almost certainly interject that the USSR wasn’t practicing real communism, maaan), you’re pretty much begging to be mocked.

    But what makes Myerson’s article so precious is that either he’s too dumb to know what the Soviet Union stood for (or too lazy to have done a quick Google search prior to clicking “Publish”), or he thinks his readers are too dumb to discern that he’s actually pushing for a return to Soviet-style communism. In his defense, he published his Marxist mash note at Rolling Stone — a site run by a seemingly drug-addled 23-year-old nepot — so maybe he has a point about the collective IQ of his readers. …

    As Andrew McCoy noted shortly after Myerson’s piece was published, Myerson’s ideas aren’t just similar to Soviet ideas. They are Soviet ideas, which should come as no surprise to anyone with even a passing familiarity with the Soviet Union. According to McCoy’s research, each of Myerson’s five reforms was contained in the USSR’s Constitution. Guaranteed jobs are in Article 40. Social insurance for everybody is in Article 43. Abolition of private real estate is in Article 6. Complete abolition of all other private property is in Articles 4 and 5. And government-owned banks — the only banks allowed in the Soviet Union — were a natural byproduct of a system that says only the government can own things. …

    If Myerson wants to see what a government-engineered “climate collapse” (whatever that means) looks like, he need only study the Great Chinese Famine, a three-year period of absolute desolation caused directly by Mao’s communist regime. Between 1958 and 1962 alone, upwards of 45 million Chinese died as a result of the Mao-engineered famine, while another 30 million failed to be born because of the communist-caused carnage. As a percentage of the country’s total population, those 45 million Chinese deaths would be roughly equivalent to the entire populations of New York City, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia being wiped out between now and 2018, all thanks to government fiat. I’m pretty sure my capitalist air-conditioning and SUV haven’t murdered 45 million people since 2009, but your mileage may vary.

    For all his faults, though, Myerson really is the perfect 21st century chickenhawk communist. Oh, you live in Manhattan, make close to six figures, and went to a middling NY liberal arts college where the cost of a single credit hour exceeds the GDP per capita of a whole host of African countries? Tell me more about how you’re down with The Struggle™. Nothing says certified prole like black-and-white candids, three-piece suits, and finely manicured beards, amirite?

    Between this sort of nonsense and its fawning Boston Bomber coverage, Rolling Stone is clearly trying to cement itself as Slate for the dumb set (but I repeat myself) with a traffic model that all but begs people to mock its stupidity. No longer wanting to be confined to writing terrible music reviews, Rolling Stone is basically becoming the print equivalent of clips of the grape-stomping local TV reporter, minus the shame and embarrassment.

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  • On the Recovery In Name Only

    January 8, 2014
    US politics

    If you believe Democrats (and, you know, I could stop writing right there), the economy is recovering.

    But if the economy is recovering, why is Congress passing an extension of unemployment benefits?

    Ask U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D–Wisconsin), who congratulated herself in a news release:

    A new report released by the U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee shows that the long-term unemployment rate is twice what it was when Congress last allowed federal unemployment insurance to expire after the recessions of 1990-91 and 2001. Approximately 1.3 million workers, including 23,700 Wisconsinites, lost all unemployment benefits when Congress failed to act before the end of December.

    Maybe Baldwin should have a conversation with her president about our great economy. Baldwin also fired shots at Gov. Scott Walker, ignoring the fact that Wisconsin’s unemployment rate is lower than the nation’s, and has been lower than the nation’s throughout Walker’s term as governor.

    The obvious explanation of that previous paragraph is that it’s an election year. The other answer is that, well, the economy isn’t recovering in ways non-economists can see, reports John Lott:

    It has been over four-and-a-half years since the economic “recovery” began, yet a new CNN poll indicates that almost seven out of every ten Americans considers the economy to be in poor shape.

    Democrats want to claim that the economy is improving at the same time that they will be pushing Monday for a continued extension of unemployment benefits. Democrats also refuse to acknowledge that up to two years of unemployment insurance benefits actually creates unemployment.

    Indeed, people are so worried about the job market that they are clinging to their current jobs at remarkably high rates.

    Quit rates that usually rise after recessions, particularly after long recessions when they have stayed with jobs they might not care for, are still lower over the last three months than they were during the recession.

    But how can that possibly be?

    The official unemployment rate keeps falling. We are told that the job market is improving.  Are Americans just not realizing that things are getting better? Or do they perceive of something that the unemployment numbers are not picking up?

    The answer is the latter.

    The unemployment numbers do not accurately reflect the state of the labor market.  The reason is that the unemployment rate only considers those who are actively looking for work, failing to include the ones who have become so discouraged that they no longer look for a job.

    Even the broader U6 measure of unemployment only includes these discouraged workers in its count for just one year.  With the traditional measure of unemployment that keeps being reported on the news, these discouraged individuals are counted as officially having left the labor force.

    Imagine if workers had not dropped out and that the labor force participation had remained the same as it was when Obama became president 60 months ago. …

     

    As we can see, the official unemployment rate peaked at 10 percent in October 2009 and slowly fell to 7 percent today.  But if we add the drop-outs to the unemployed, the current rate would still be 11 percent, virtually unchanged since it hit 11.1 percent in October 2009.

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  • Presty the DJ for Jan. 8

    January 8, 2014
    Music

    The Beatles had the number one album, “Rubber Soul” …

    … and the number one single today in 1966:

    (more…)

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  • Comment on this blog: “I think we are all screwed”

    January 7, 2014
    Culture, Parenthood/family

    One of the most interesting people I’ve interviewed over the years, Lafayette County’s Penelope Trunk, has bad news:

    Here’s the problem men have today: They understand how bad it feels to be raised by a dad who is never around.

    There’s a generation of boys who didn’t eat dinner with their dad. Only saw their dad on the weekend. Changed schools five times so their dad could relocate to get the best job, over and over again.

    Those boys are grown up now, and they are dads. And they don’t want to be like their dad. They want something different.

    We have unrealistic expectations for fathers.

    So more men are leaving the workforce than ever before. But when men stay home, they are largely disrespected as incompetent breadwinners. And the men who choose work all the time are largely disrespected as incompetent parents. If they try to do a little of both, they are not particular standouts in either. (I’m struck by the art world’s depiction of this problem. For example, Nathan Sawaya‘s sculpture pictured above, and a comic strip from Zen Pencils that depicts the problem.)

    Men were raised to be standouts. But no one told them that most good jobs require long hours and high risk which are choices most people don’t want to take.

    The other challenge to being a standout breadwinner is that you almost always need a big city. Most people imagine themselves raising their kids in a metropolitan area. But the truth is that it costs a lot of money.

    NYC, SF and LA require $150K/year in order to raise two kids in a middle-class life. Some people will disagree with me, but none of those disagreeing will have two kids over the age of six in one of those cities. This is true in the suburbs of places like Boston or Chicago as well. Sure, there are cheap suburbs, but there are not good schools in cheap suburbs.

    Most men will not make enough money to afford living in the right kind of metropolitan area. The number of men who will make $150K after the age of 35 is tiny. First of all, if you want to be making $150K after 40 you need to be making it at age 35. Which means you need to be clearing $100K at age 30. (And places like Singapore, Tokyo, and Bermuda don’t count. Because you won’t be able to make that much back in the US. Your market is artificially inflated.) …

    We have unrealistic expectations for husbands.

    So let’s say you are 35 and you’re ready to get married. You have a three choices:

    1. You earn enough to support a family in a metropolitan area. (You need to reliably earn $150K for the next 15 years – unlikely.)

    2. You split household labor because you are splitting breadwinner duties. (This typically goes very poorly because women are never happy with the division. Really. )

    3. You move to a small town where your career is limited but the cost of living is low. (Negotiate this before you get married.)

    The problem is that men don’t like to hear that these are their choices. So men pretend that their salary will continue to rise in their 30s at the same pace it rose in their 20s.

    But that approach fails because most women want to stay home with kids.

    But let’s say that’s not true for you.

    Let’s say you want two high-powered careers. You’ll need tons of childcare. Which means you’ll need to spend almost all your money on childcare. And your wife will struggle to maintain her pre-baby salary because she can’t stop thinking about kids when she’s at work. So you will be very stretched for cash. And stressed, and that’s not great because having a baby kills a marriage anyway, even without the added stress from neither spouse focusing on the baby. (This is why only 9% of mothers even attempt having a high-powered career.)

    Now let’s say you have two scaled-back careers. Here’s the problem with that: It’s nearly impossible for people over 40 maintain employment with scaled-back careers. You can’t compete with someone in their early 30s who is going full throttle. They have the same experience as you but more ambition.

    Here’s the biggest minefield: Men don’t like when their wives earn more than they do, and women don’t like outearning their husbands either. You can say you and your spouse are different, but the odds would be stacked against you. Because even if one of you is different, it would be really unlikely that both of you are different.

    There is not a contemporary template that works for most men.

    I fortunately did not have the experience of being “raised by a dad who is never around.” (My parents celebrate their 53rd wedding anniversary today.) The number of children with absent fathers isn’t shrinking, however. It’s one thing for parents to get married, have children, and then divorce; it’s another when the first step is skipped entirely and children never, or rarely, see their fathers. Everyone needs role models, and more than one per gender.

    Two reader comments stand out, the first of which is this blog’s headline:

    I think we are all screwed. I don’t think the pressure of unrealistic expectation is unique to men and fathers. These exact same thoughts and discussions are ones that I’ve had as a 30 year old woman and mom. What is it about humans today that there is the expectation of perfection in all aspects of your life. Get a good job, push push push up the ladder, don’t slack the young guns are at your heels, make a marriage work, raise amazing kids, don’t age, and try to look happy doing it. Seriously, it’s exhausting. I know I’m tired.

    To which came this response:

    I think what’s changed is feminism, frankly. Much as I admire intelligent women with real jobs, it messes up the whole family dynamic. The woman now feels she has to hold down the high-powered job or she’s betraying all that women have worked for. The guy feels he should be doing more at home with the kids even if he doesn’t want to. They are both worried about how their jobs compare to one another.

    They are also both worried about falling out of the “educated power couple” group. They absolutely don’t want to be in the “middle class, boring job, low ambition” group. That’s seen as low class, and doomed. The feeling is that between automation and globalization, all those “flyover country blue collar” types are going to suffer terribly. Don’t be in that group!

    To which came this response:

    What’s happening: the middle income group and middle income jobs are really, really shrinking, so more and more people have to work crazy hours to try to get to the top just to make a living wage, since lower paid jobs are part time and poverty level. One middle income job no longer pays enough to raise a family in an expensive area (but even those jobs are more concentrated in expensive areas). And job security isn’t what it once was, so you can’t plan on a long career with one company, you have to remain competitive and be prepared to move on. We have to live *in* this system as individuals, and figure out how to raise families in a time of insecurity and wage stagnation, but it’s not just a cultural phenomenon and it’s not just the result of individual choices.

    Another comment suggests avoiding the corporate world entirely and …

    I often advise people with enough talent and experience to start their own business. While risky, it is perhaps less risky than staying in the corporate world nowadays. And, there is more potential to create a “portable” business that does not have to stay in an expensive metro area.

    To which Trunk said …

    Yes, I agree. Starting your own company is one of the best solutions to the problem. But it definitely falls into the high risk category that most people aren’t willing to do. Most people just don’t have the stomach for that sort of risk.

    On top of that, I coach so many people who want to start their own company, but they don’t have an idea. For most people coming up with a viable idea for a company is nearly impossible.

    (Or, alternatively, they can come up with the idea, but can’t handle the business basics, such as day-to-day accounting.)

    Read this, and you wonder how anyone can be optimistic about our future. Of course, things can get worse.

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  • Yes, it is Obama’s fault

    January 7, 2014
    US business, US politics

    Stanford University Prof. John B. Taylor:

    When it became clear that the recovery from recession—which officially ended in mid-2009—was unprecedentedly weak, policy makers found an excuse in the depth of the financial crisis. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner argued in August 2010 that “recoveries that follow financial crises are typically a hard climb. That is reality.” This argument is put forth frequently by government officials, and it’s loosely based on a popular 2009 book by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, “This Time Is Different.”

    A careful look at American history by Michael Bordo of Rutgers and Joseph Haubrich of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank has blown holes in the argument. Recoveries from deep recessions with financial crises have been stronger, not weaker, than recoveries following shallower recessions. These strong recoveries average about 6% real GDP growth per year, compared to only 2% per year in this recovery. The current recovery should have been much stronger. …

    Yet the overall economy has failed to rebound strongly as it did so often in the past. At 52 months and counting, the recovery is already longer than the 33-month average of all U.S. recoveries. Yet the gap between real GDP and its potential based on population and productivity trends has yet to close appreciably. The fraction of the population employed is still below what it was at its start.

    And now comes a new excuse, emerging like a vampire from the crypt. Though it has been quietly gestating for some time, a new-old idea, “secular stagnation,” has received a great deal of attention since former Treasury secretary and White House adviserLawrence Summers made the case at a Brookings-Hoover conference in October, and then again at an International Monetary Fund conference in November. A similar hypothesis was famously espoused by Alvin Hansen, “the American Keynes, ” in the late 1930s to explain America’s poor economic performance.

    Hansen claimed, rather ludicrously in retrospect, that technological innovation and population growth had played out, depressing investment—and that only government deficit spending could keep employment up. According to the modern version, secular stagnation began 10 years ago when the rate of return on capital—or what Mr. Summers called in his IMF speech the “real interest rate that was consistent with full employment”—fell well below normal levels experienced since the end of World War II. The decline, say to “-2 or -3%,” continues today and will likely continue into the future, he said. The low rate of return is due to a supposed glut of saving and dearth of investment opportunities. …

    There are many problems with this neo-secular stagnation hypothesis. First, it implies that there should have been slack economic conditions and high unemployment in the five years before the crisis, even with the very low interest rates—especially in 2003-05—and the lax regulatory policy.

    But it was just the opposite. There were boom-like conditions, especially in residential investment, as demand for homes skyrocketed and housing price inflation jumped from around 7% per year from 2002-03 to near 14% in 2004-05 before busting in 2006-07. The unemployment rate got as low as 4.4%—well below the normal rate and not a sign of slack. Inflation was rising, not falling. During the years 2003-05, when the Fed’s interest rate was too low, the annual inflation rate for the GDP price index doubled to 3.4% from 1.7%.

    Moreover, there is little direct evidence for a saving glut. During this recovery, the personal saving rate is well below what it was during the 1980s rapid recovery from a deep recession; 5.5% now versus 9.2% then. In my 2009 book on the crisis, Getting Off Track, I examined the claim that there was a global savings glut and found evidence to the contrary: In the past decade global savings rates fell below what they were in the 1980s and 1990s. The U.S. has been running a current account deficit, which means national saving is below investment.

    In the current era, business firms have continued to be reluctant to invest and hire, and the ratio of investment to GDP is still below normal. That is most likely explained by policy uncertainty, increased regulation, including through the Dodd Frank and Affordable Care Act, about which there is plenty of evidence, especially in comparison with the secular stagnation hypothesis.

     

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Steve Prestegard.com: The Presteblog

The thoughts of a journalist/libertarian–conservative/Christian husband, father, Eagle Scout and aficionado of obscure rock music. Thoughts herein are only the author’s and not necessarily the opinions of his family, friends, neighbors, church members or past, present or future employers.

  • Steve
    • About, or, Who is this man?
    • Facebook
    • Twitter
    • Adventures in ruralu0026nbsp;inkBack in June 2009, I was driving somewhere through a rural area. And for some reason, I had a flashback to two experiences in my career about that time of year many years ago. In 1988, eight days after graduating from the University of Wisconsin, I started work at the Grant County Herald Independent in Lancaster as a — well, the — reporter. Four years after that, on my 27th birthday, I purchased, with a business partner, the Tri-County Press in Cuba City, my first business venture. Both were experiences about which Wisconsin author Michael Perry might write. I thought about all this after reading a novel, The Deadline, written by a former newspaper editor and publisher. (Now who would write a novel about a weekly newspaper?) As a former newspaper owner, I picked at some of it — why finance a newspaper purchase through the bank if the seller is willing to finance it? Because the mean bank lender is a plot point! — and it is much more interesting than reality, but it is very well written, with a nicely twisting plot, and quite entertaining, again more so than reality. There is something about that first job out of college that makes you remember it perhaps more…
    • Adventures in radioI’ve been in the full-time work world half my life. For that same amount of time I’ve been broadcasting sports as a side interest, something I had wanted to since I started listening to games on radio and watching on TV, and then actually attending games. If you ask someone who’s worked in radio for some time about the late ’70s TV series “WKRP in Cincinnati,” most of them will tell you that, if anything, the series understated how wacky working in radio can be. Perhaps the funniest episode in the history of TV is the “WKRP” episode, based on a true story, about the fictional radio station’s Thanksgiving promotion — throwing live turkeys out of a helicopter under the mistaken belief that, in the words of WKRP owner Arthur Carlson, “As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly.” [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ST01bZJPuE0] I’ve never been involved in anything like that. I have announced games from the roofs of press boxes (once on a nice day, and once in 50-mph winds), from a Mississippi River bluff (more on that later), and from the front row of the second balcony of the University of Wisconsin Fieldhouse (great view, but not a place to go if…
    • “Good morning/afternoon/evening, ________ fans …”
    • My biggest storyEarlier this week, while looking for something else, I came upon some of my own work. (I’m going to write a blog someday called “Things I Found While Looking for Something Else.” This is not that blog.) The Grant County Sheriff’s Department, in the county where I used to live, has a tribute page to the two officers in county history who died in the line of duty. One is William Loud, a deputy marshal in Cassville, shot to death by two bank robbers in 1912. The other is Tom Reuter, a Grant County deputy sheriff who was shot to death at the end of his 4 p.m.-to-midnight shift March 18, 1990. Gregory Coulthard, then a 19-year-old farmhand, was convicted of first-degree intentional homicide and is serving a life sentence, with his first eligibility for parole on March 18, 2015, just 3½ years from now. I’ve written a lot over the years. I think this, from my first two years in the full-time journalism world, will go down as the story I remember the most. For journalists, big stories contain a paradox, which was pointed out in CBS-TV’s interview of Andy Rooney on his last “60 Minutes” Sunday. Morley Safer said something along the line…
  • Food and drink
    • The Roesch/Prestegard familyu0026nbsp;cookbookFrom the family cookbook(s) All the families I’m associated with love to eat, so it’s a good thing we enjoy cooking. The first out-of-my-house food memory I have is of my grandmother’s cooking for Christmas or other family occasions. According to my mother, my grandmother had a baked beans recipe that she would make for my mother. Unfortunately, the recipe seems to have  disappeared. Also unfortunately, my early days as a picky, though voluminous, eater meant I missed a lot of those recipes made from such wholesome ingredients as lard and meat fat. I particularly remember a couple of meals that involve my family. The day of Super Bowl XXXI, my parents, my brother, my aunt and uncle and a group of their friends got together to share lots of food and cheer on the Packers to their first NFL title in 29 years. (After which Jannan and I drove to Lambeau Field in the snow,  but that’s another story.) Then, on Dec. 31, 1999, my parents, my brother, my aunt and uncle and Jannan and I (along with Michael in utero) had a one-course-per-hour meal to appropriately end years beginning with the number 1. Unfortunately I can’t remember what we…
    • SkålI was the editor of Marketplace Magazine for 10 years. If I had to point to one thing that demonstrates improved quality of life since I came to Northeast Wisconsin in 1994, it would be … … the growth of breweries and  wineries in Northeast Wisconsin. The former of those two facts makes sense, given our heritage as a brewing state. The latter is less self-evident, since no one thinks of Wisconsin as having a good grape-growing climate. Some snobs claim that apple or cherry wines aren’t really wines at all. But one of the great facets of free enterprise is the opportunity to make your own choice of what food and drink to drink. (At least for now, though some wish to restrict our food and drink choices.) Wisconsin’s historically predominant ethnic group (and our family’s) is German. Our German ancestors did unfortunately bring large government and high taxes with them, but they also brought beer. Europeans brought wine with them, since they came from countries with poor-quality drinking water. Within 50 years of a wave of mid-19th-century German immigration, brewing had become the fifth largest industry in the U.S., according to Maureen Ogle, author of Ambitious Brew: The Story of American Beer. Beer and wine have…
  • Wheels
    • America’s sports carMy birthday in June dawned without a Chevrolet Corvette in front of my house. (The Corvette at the top of the page was featured at the 2007 Greater Milwaukee Auto Show. The copilot is my oldest son, Michael.) Which isn’t surprising. I have three young children, and I have a house with a one-car garage. (Then again, this would be more practical, though a blatant pluck-your-eyes-out violation of the Corvette ethos. Of course, so was this.) The reality is that I’m likely to be able to own a Corvette only if I get a visit from the Corvette Fairy, whose office is next door to the Easter Bunny. (I hope this isn’t foreshadowing: When I interviewed Dave Richter of Valley Corvette for a car enthusiast story in the late great Marketplace Magazine, he said that the most popular Corvette in most fans’ minds was a Corvette built during their days in high school. This would be a problem for me in that I graduated from high school in 1983, when no Corvette was built.) The Corvette is one of those cars whose existence may be difficult to understand within General Motors Corp. The Corvette is what is known as a “halo car,” a car that drives people into showrooms, even if…
    • Barges on fouru0026nbsp;wheelsI originally wrote this in September 2008.  At the Fox Cities Business Expo Tuesday, a Smart car was displayed at the United Way Fox Cities booth. I reported that I once owned a car into which trunk, I believe, the Smart could be placed, with the trunk lid shut. This is said car — a 1975 Chevrolet Caprice coupe (ours was dark red), whose doors are, I believe, longer than the entire Smart. The Caprice, built down Interstate 90 from us Madisonians in Janesville (a neighbor of ours who worked at the plant probably helped put it together) was the flagship of Chevy’s full-size fleet (which included the stripper Bel Air and middle-of-the-road Impala), featuring popular-for-the-time vinyl roofs, better sound insulation, an upgraded cloth interior, rear fender skirts and fancy Caprice badges. The Caprice was 18 feet 1 inch long and weighed 4,300 pounds. For comparison: The midsize Chevrolet of the ear was the Malibu, which was the same approximate size as the Caprice after its 1977 downsizing. The compact Chevrolet of the era was the Nova, which was 200 inches long — four inches longer than a current Cadillac STS. Wikipedia’s entry on the Caprice has this amusing sentence: “As fuel economy became a bigger priority among Americans…
    • Behind the wheel
    • Collecting only dust or rust
    • Coooooooooooupe!
    • Corvettes on the screen
    • The garage of misfit cars
    • 100 years (and one day) of our Chevrolets
    • They built Excitement, sort of, once in a while
    • A wagon by any otheru0026nbsp;nameFirst written in 2008. You will see more don’t-call-them-station-wagons as you drive today. Readers around my age have probably had some experience with a vehicle increasingly rare on the road — the station wagon. If you were a Boy Scout or Girl Scout, or were a member of some kind of youth athletic team, or had a large dog, or had relatives approximately your age, or had friends who needed to be transported somewhere, or had parents who occasionally had to haul (either in the back or in a trailer) more than what could be fit inside a car trunk, you (or, actually, your parents) were the target demographic for the station wagon. “Station wagons came to be like covered wagons — so much family activity happened in those cars,” said Tim Cleary, president of the American Station Wagon Owners Association, in Country Living magazine. Wagons “were used for everything from daily runs to the grocery store to long summer driving trips, and while many men and women might have wanted a fancier or sportier car, a station wagon was something they knew they needed for the family.” The “station wagon” originally was a vehicle with a covered seating area to take people between train stations…
    • Wheels on theu0026nbsp;screenBetween my former and current blogs, I wrote a lot about automobiles and TV and movies. Think of this post as killing two birds (Thunderbirds? Firebirds? Skylarks?) with one stone. Most movies and TV series view cars the same way most people view cars — as A-to-B transportation. (That’s not counting the movies or series where the car is the plot, like the haunted “Christine” or “Knight Rider” or the “Back to the Future” movies.) The philosophy here, of course, is that cars are not merely A-to-B transportation. Which disqualifies most police shows from what you’re about to read, even though I’ve watched more police video than anything else, because police cars are plain Jane vehicles. The highlight in a sense is in the beginning: The car chase in my favorite movie, “Bullitt,” featuring Steve McQueen’s 1968 Ford Mustang against the bad guys’ 1968 Dodge Charger: [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMc2RdFuOxIu0026amp;fmt=18] One year before that (but I didn’t see this until we got Telemundo on cable a couple of years ago) was a movie called “Operación 67,” featuring (I kid you not) a masked professional wrestler, his unmasked sidekick, and some sort of secret agent plot. (Since I don’t know Spanish and it’s not…
    • While riding in my Cadillac …
  • Entertainments
    • Brass rocksThose who read my former blog last year at this time, or have read this blog over the past months, know that I am a big fan of the rock group Chicago. (Back when they were a rock group and not a singer of sappy ballads, that is.) Since rock music began from elements of country music, jazz and the blues, brass rock would seem a natural subgenre of rock music. A lot of ’50s musical acts had saxophone players, and some played with full orchestras … [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CPS-WuUKUE] … but it wasn’t until the more-or-less simultaneous appearances of Chicago and Blood Sweat u0026amp; Tears on the musical scene (both groups formed in 1967, both had their first charting singles in 1969, and they had the same producer) that the usual guitar/bass/keyboard/drum grouping was augmented by one or more trumpets, a sax player and a trombone player. While Chicago is my favorite group (but you knew that already), the first brass rock song I remember hearing was BSu0026amp;T’s “Spinning Wheel” — not in its original form, but on “Sesame Street,” accompanied by, yes, a giant spinning wheel. [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi9sLkyhhlE] [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxWSOuNsN20] [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9U34uPjz-g] I remember liking Chicago’s “Just You ‘n Me” when it was released as a single, and…
    • Drive and Eat au0026nbsp;RockThe first UW home football game of each season also is the opener for the University of Wisconsin Marching Band, the world’s finest college marching band. (How the UW Band has not gotten the Sudler Trophy, which is to honor the country’s premier college marching bands, is beyond my comprehension.) I know this because I am an alumnus of the UW Band. I played five years (in the last rank of the band, Rank 25, motto: “Where Men Are Tall and Run-On Is Short”), marching in 39 football games at Camp Randall Stadium, the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome in Minneapolis, Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Memorial Stadium at the University of Illinois (worst artificial turf I had ever seen), the University of Nevada–Las Vegas’ Sam Boyd Silver Bowl, the former Dyche Stadium at Northwestern University, five high school fields and, in my one bowl game, Legion Field in Birmingham, Ala., site of the 1984 Hall of Fame Bowl. The UW Band was, without question, the most memorable experience of my college days, and one of the most meaningful experiences of my lifetime. It was the most physical experience of my lifetime, to be sure. Fifteen minutes into my first Registration…
    • Keep on rockin’ in the freeu0026nbsp;worldOne of my first ambitions in communications was to be a radio disc jockey, and to possibly reach the level of the greats I used to listen to from WLS radio in Chicago, which used to be one of the great 50,000-watt AM rock stations of the country, back when they still existed. (Those who are aficionados of that time in music and radio history enjoyed a trip to that wayback machine when WLS a Memorial Day Big 89 Rewind, excerpts of which can be found on their Web site.) My vision was to be WLS’ afternoon DJ, playing the best in rock music between 2 and 6, which meant I wouldn’t have to get up before the crack of dawn to do the morning show, yet have my nights free to do whatever glamorous things big-city DJs did. Then I learned about the realities of radio — low pay, long hours, zero job security — and though I have dabbled in radio sports, I’ve pretty much cured myself of the idea of working in radio, even if, to quote WAPL’s Len Nelson, “You come to work every day just like everybody else does, but we’re playing rock ’n’ roll songs, we’re cuttin’ up.…
    • Monday on the flight line, not Saturday in the park
    • Music to drive by
    • The rock ofu0026nbsp;WisconsinWikipedia begins its item “Music of Wisconsin” thusly: Wisconsin was settled largely by European immigrants in the late 19th century. This immigration led to the popularization of galops, schottisches, waltzes, and, especially, polkas. [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yl7wCczgNUc] So when I first sought to write a blog piece about rock musicians from Wisconsin, that seemed like a forlorn venture. Turned out it wasn’t, because when I first wrote about rock musicians from Wisconsin, so many of them that I hadn’t mentioned came up in the first few days that I had to write a second blog entry fixing the omissions of the first. This list is about rock music, so it will not include, for instance, Milwaukee native and Ripon College graduate Al Jarreau, who in addition to having recorded a boatload of music for the jazz and adult contemporary/easy listening fan, also recorded the theme music for the ’80s TV series “Moonlighting.” Nor will it include Milwaukee native Eric Benet, who was for a while known more for his former wife, Halle Berry, than for his music, which includes four number one singles on the Ru0026amp;B charts, “Spend My Life with You” with Tamia, “Hurricane,” “Pretty Baby” and “You’re the Only One.” Nor will it include Wisconsin’s sizable contributions to big…
    • Steve TV: All Steve, All the Time
    • “Super Steve, Man of Action!”
    • Too much TV
    • The worst music of allu0026nbsp;timeThe rock group Jefferson Airplane titled its first greatest-hits compilation “The Worst of Jefferson Airplane.” Rolling Stone magazine was not being ironic when it polled its readers to decide the 10 worst songs of the 1990s. I’m not sure I agree with all of Rolling Stone’s list, but that shouldn’t be surprising; such lists are meant for debate, after all. To determine the “worst,” songs appropriate for the “Vinyl from Hell” segment that used to be on a Madison FM rock station, requires some criteria, which does not include mere overexposure (for instance, “Macarena,” the video of which I find amusing since it looks like two bankers are singing it). Before we go on: Blog posts like this one require multimedia, so if you find a song you hate on this blog, I apologize. These are also songs that I almost never listen to because my sound system has a zero-tolerance policy — if I’m listening to the radio or a CD and I hear a song I don’t like, it’s, to quote Bad Company, gone gone gone. My blonde wife won’t be happy to read that one of her favorite ’90s songs, 4 Non Blondes’ “What’s Up,” starts the list. (However,…
    • “You have the right to remain silent …”
  • Madison
    • Blasts from the Madison media past
    • Blasts from my Madison past
    • Blasts from our Madison past
    • What’s the matter with Madison?
    • Wisconsin – Madison = ?
  • Sports
    • Athletic aesthetics, or “cardinal” vs. “Big Red”
    • Choose your own announcer
    • La Follette state 1982 (u0022It was 30 years ago todayu0022)
    • The North Dakota–Wisconsin Hockey Fight of 1982
    • Packers vs. Brewers
  • Hall of Fame
    • The case(s) against teacher unions
    • The Class of 1983
    • A hairy subject, or face the face
    • It’s worse than you think
    • It’s worse than you think, 2010–11 edition
    • My favorite interview subject of all time
    • Oh look! Rural people!
    • Prestegard for president!
    • Unions vs. the facts, or Hiding in plain sight
    • When rhetoric goes too far
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