Today was supposed to be the start (not counting the First Four games earlier this week) the NCAA men’s Division I basketball tournament.
ESPN’s Erin Barney and Seth Walder write about the March Madness that could have happened:
Oh, what could have been.
When the NCAA Tournament was called off due to the COVID-19 pandemic, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi released his final seeding and first-round matchups for the tournament anyway, and Badger fans got the bittersweet news that Wisconsin, according to Lunardi, would have been a No. 4 seed–the highest No. 4 seed, in fact.
ESPN has now taken things a step further and used its Basketball Power Index (BPI) to predict the outcome of each game all the way through to the championship round.
Their simulation, which considers “the relative strength of the two teams and the location of the game” for every single game in the bracket predicted that…Badger fans, brace yourselves … WISCONSIN could have been crowned NCAA champions, beating out No. 6 BYU for the rights to hang a banner in the Kohl Center.
ESPN’s Seth Walder, who put this exercise together, explained in his article that normally, BPI is used to provide probabilities of multiple scenarios.
“But here’s the thing,” Walder wrote. “Life is a single sim. The 2020 tournament was only going to be played once. And so that’s what this article is actually dedicated to: a solitary simulation of this year’s tournament. One-and-done, just like March Madness.”
The simulations resulted from a BPI run also don’t provide context, details, for how the wins or losses might have gone down, so in his article, Walder took some creative liberties.
The Badgers’ path to the trophy game, per this BPI simulation, involved crossovers with Marquette, Duke, Maryland, and more. Here’s a look at what could have been, according to Walder:
Just in terms of regular ol’ net efficiency, Iowa had the 24th-best offense in the country. But once we adjust for opponent and account for the tough Big Ten in which the Hawkeyes had to battle, it was the fifth-most efficient offense. And that’s what leads them to a blowout win in the first round of the tournament.
As you can see from the championship projections, BPI was awfully high on Duke this season relative to general perception. Will that result in a championship in Sim No. 2020? It remains to be seen, but it did carry the Blue Devils to a first-round victory.
Kentucky was maybe slightly overseeded as a No. 2 seed from a résumé standpoint — strength of record would have put the Wildcats at a No. 3 seed — but vastly overseeded from an ability standpoint as the 24th-best team in the country, per BPI. It’s irrelevant now — they beat North Dakota State just fine — but will it matter down the line?
Our first upset! Had Selection Sunday actually happened, I would have spent this entire week yelling from the rooftops that Liberty was an excellent underdog to pick. I promise, I would have! After all, we identified the Flames as the second-best 11-plus seed in terms of first-round upset potential a week ago, shortly before the actual tournament was canceled.
Both of these teams are among the 16-slowest pace squads in the country, but Wisconsin’s decent offense is a mismatch against a weak North Texas offense. The Badgers gradually extend their lead over the course of the game, which is never really in doubt.
Marquette finished the season ice cold, with six losses in its final seven contests. But the Golden Eagles can take solace in the fact that BPI does not overreact to recency in college basketball. And they also have this going for them: Markus Howard. And on this day against Houston, Howard finally gets his first NCAA tournament win. Will there be more?
A sloppy first half from Kansas draws some early concern, but the Jayhawks recover and pull away for the expected win.
ROUND TWO
No. 3 Duke over No. 6 Iowa
Vernon Carey Jr., the most productive player in college basketball this season on a per minute basis according to our win shares metric, leads the Blue Devils into the Sweet 16. And Duke is now a clear favorite to come out of the region because …
No. 7 Providence over No. 2 Kentucky
Another blue blood down in this pretty brutal Midwest region. Even though we think Kentucky is overseeded, the Wildcats are still almost three points per game better than Providence. That’s on average. Not today. Today, the Friars are moving on.
No. 4 Wisconsin over No. 12 Liberty
The Flames had their moment, but they won’t reach the second weekend. They hung tough with the Badgers and kept the scoring margin within single digits, but Greg Gard’s defense helped keep Liberty from ever making a late charge.
No. 9 Marquette over No. 1 Kansas
And Kansas falls! Markus Howard is flying now and he and Marquette are having the tournament that Golden Eagles fans hoped for a year ago. And just like that: Udoka Azubuike, Devon Dotson and the rest of the Jayhawks are done.
SWEET 16
No. 3 Duke over No. 7 Providence
Duke is coming into its own this tournament, and playing much closer to what a typical Blue Devils team looks like than the one that played this regular season. They look like one of the best teams in the tournament and making the committee feel foolish for slapping a No. 3 seed on them. Providence is a casualty as a result.
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis.
No. 4 Wisconsin over No. 9 Marquette
“Wouldn’t this be something: an all-Wisconsin showdown in the Sweet 16,” Walder wrote of this happenstance.
He added some thoughts on what the win might have looked like for the Badgers: “Wisconsin is favored and … just like that, Markus Howard and Marquette’s Cinderella run comes to a screeching halt. Nate Reuvers records a couple of key blocks down the stretch as Wisconsin’s defense comes through again.”
ELITE 8
MIDWEST: No. 4 Wisconsin over No. 3 Duke
It’s not the National Championship game, and it’s only a simulation, but still–sweet, sweet revenge.
Walder’s guess was that it would have been a gripping game, too: “D’Mitrik Trice knocks down a 3 at the horn to put the Badgers over the top and win by one … they’re going to the Final Four!”
EAST: No. 4 Maryland over No. 7 West Virginia
The mighty Big Ten is now 2-2 in the Elite 8, and is guaranteed a rep in the national championship game. [Anthony] Cowan and [Jalen] Smith lead the way again, and West Virginia just can’t keep up with the Maryland offense. The Terps win by 10 and cut down the nets.
WEST: No. 6 BYU over No. 12 Yale
And the Bulldogs’ run is finally over. They took down some goliaths but ultimately it was an underrated No. 6 seed that got the best of them. Childs got the better of Atkinson at both ends of the floor and, as a result, the Cougars are moving on to Atlanta.
SOUTH: No. 6 Virginia over No. 5 Ohio State
The title defense is very much on. Two years ago, the Cavaliers were knocked out as a No. 1 seed in the first round. Now they have a national championship under their belt, and back-to-back Final Fours … at least. It’s an incredible accomplishment for a team that has, in BPI’s estimation, the 220th-best offense in the country. Tony Bennett’s stock is flying higher than ever. UVA completes a bizarre looking and utterly shocking Final Four made up of two No. 4 seeds and two No. 6s. But in a strange season for college basketball, maybe this is what we should have expected.
Mercedes–Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
FINAL FOUR
No. 4 Wisconsin over No. 4 Maryland
The Badgers and the Terps met just once during the regular season, and it ended in spectacular, game-winning-3 fashion. Wisconsin and Maryland have also only met once before in the NCAA Tournament (in 2002) and it ended in a resounding 30-point win for the Terps.
Walder saw this one going more like that first scenario–pretty much exactly like that first scenario.
“Maryland falls behind early but makes a late run and pulls ahead in the final minute. But in the final seconds, history repeats itself: Brad Davison knocks down a 3 to put the Badgers up at the very end, just as he did when these two schools played in January.”
No. 6 BYU over No. 6 Virginia
The UVa offense finally held back the Cavaliers. Hot starts by [Yoeli] Childs and Jake Toolson put the Cougars ahead by double digits at the half, and Virginia struggles to fight its way back into it. While BYU’s run to the finals was also incredibly unlikely, it was actually slightly more likely than Wisconsin’s, though both were just over 2%. Now, the Cougars are very slight favorites to win the national championship.
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
No. 4 Wisconsin over No. 6 BYU
Walder noted that despite the Badgers’ chance at winning the championship sitting below 1 percent heading into the tournament, they came out with the greater win probability in each individual matchup and indeed, won the dang thing.
“It’s a team effort, but Nate Reuvers leads Wisconsin with 16 points,” Walder guessed. “Gard is lauded for getting his group to play their best when it mattered the most. This is a team that did not begin the season in the AP’s Top 25 and only barely cracked it in the last set of rankings. Not that any of that matters, because the Badgers are now (simulated) champions!”
Brian Westrate of the Eau Claire County Republican Party wrote this to Republican legislators:
For 20 years I have soldiered along as a volunteer fighting in the trenches with you all. Now is the time I implore you all to step up and limit the damage Evers is doing to our state. Has anyone proposed holding a joint session to rescind Ever’s powers to shut down most of the state without running it by the legislature? Do you all really think its a good idea for one guy to be able to wave his hand and destroy the lifeblood of our economy all across this state? Near as I’ve been able to tell this was a power granted to the Governor by a bill first in the early 80s (DHS authority) and then in 2009 (state of emergency authority). That which has been granted by the legislature can be rescinded by the legislature.
At this point that’s my biggest complaint, not necessarily that what’s being done is being done but that I’m not hearing anyone from the legislature out there asking, “Woa there, is this really the best way to go?” For goodness sake the CDC even suggested that schools only be closed down if they had a known case in the community or a neighboring community. By that standard the majority of schools in the state would be open. Why was Evers allowed to shut down all schools without a fight from anyone else in government? And even if the legislature didn’t try to stop him, how come I have not heard of a press conference where somebody, anybody called him out for doing more than was recommended by the CDC, the very people we are all supposed to be listening to?
If allowing most districts to be open but closing others would run afoul of some regulation or other (as I’m sure it would), then either you guys pass a temporary bill, or encourage Evers to wave his magic wand and allow the regulation to be ignored.
And now he’s limiting day care capacity!
Where will this madness end? What, if anything are you all going to do anything if he orders a general quarantine and tells us we can’t leave our homes?
I am on many of the Republican legislator’s email lists and so far I’ve only received the same pat language all politicians are using. “This is tough on us all, we’ll get through this, just do what you’re told. Here are some links where you can get more information that will have no impact on the fact that you’ll lose your job and won’t make rent this month, but hey, you’ll know the number of active cases and be reminded to wash your hands.”
As I say, I value you all as friends and as legislators. I can only imagine the stress you are all under, but in this time of crisis I am far more concerned with the stress your constituents are under.
I know you’ll probably be excoriated in the press if you question dear dictator Evers, and I know you don’t have a veto proof majority, but honestly folks if you don’t do something to fight back against this over-reach then I think we may risk the majority, never mind earning a veto-proof majority. Its better to have tried and failed than not tried at all, and who knows maybe enough Democrats will join you and we can bring Evers to heel.
If some of you have already taken action, then please accept my apologies and my gratitude. I know some of you probably agree wholeheartedly with Evers, to you please know that I can agreed to disagree. But to everybody else, please for the love of Wisconsin stand up and be counted! Now is the time to lead, now is the time to act, now is the time to use your position and influence. The people of Wisconsin need you now more than ever.
I hope I’ve earned the right to say these things to you without damaging whatever relationship we have. I figure if I don’t say my piece in a time such as this, then I should probably just always stay silent.
Rick Esenberg adds about the 10-person limit:
I think the coronavirus is quite serious but [Tuesday’s] order from Tony Evers coming a mere 24 hours after a much less stringent order has more than a whiff of panic. Maybe panic is in order but the Governor has an obligation to explain why. If it’s OK to be in a retail establishment where people are not within arm’s length of one another for more than ten minutes than why can’t a restaurant be open if patrons are kept more than six feet apart? Why were gatherings of 50 acceptable yesterday but not today? What did the Governor learn that caused him to change his mind? It can’t be evidence of “community transmission” because only a fool would have though that wasn’t happening yesterday. I am not saying he’s wrong but what he did today is going to destroy a lot of small businesses and wreak havoc for many families. That doesn’t mean it’s the wrong call – I think some substantial economic harm is unavoidable – but he has a moral obligation to explain himself. He hasn’t done it.
Nor will he, undoubtedly. The mandated closing of churches is a grotesque violation of the First Amendment, for which Evers deserves recall and removal from office.
The U.S. economy was motoring along as 2020 got underway, but has taken a sizable hit because of the coronavirus. Getting it back on track requires sound economic policy, not tax and regulatory hikes – and that means advantage Trump.
No one should forget that the eight years of Obama/Biden produced the weakest economic growth of any modern presidency. Not one year did the policies of increased taxes and a much higher regulatory burden produce growth of 3 percent – an all-time record of poor performance.
While those on the Left blame the George W. Bush administration for handing off a poor economy, simple economics tells you that the Obama/Biden response made things worse. By dramatically increasing the costs of doing business in the United States, the Obama/Biden administration reduced growth from what it could have been.
President Reagan, on the other hand, who faced double-digit unemployment and inflation and interest rates above 20 percent – a condition far worse than Obama faced – achieved stellar growth through tax and regulatory reform. In other words, policy matters.
Remember, the economic Law of Demand tells us that the more something costs, the less of it we get. The Obama/Biden administration raised taxes (costs), including those in ObamaCare, on the economy overall.
The Obama/Biden administration also undertook a war on energy in the form of regulatory costs. Beyond just the energy sector, overall, Obama/Biden regulations added billions annually in costs to the U.S. economy – and the higher the cost of something, including the economy overall, the less of it you get.
Faced with poor economic numbers at the end of the Obama/Biden years, the Left said 3 percent growth was no longer possible. In a sense they were right: under the burdens of ever-growing government – spending, regulations and taxes – economic growth is reduced.
That is why our average growth from the 1950s to today has fallen from 4 percent to 2 percent. In Europe, which has an even higher government burden, growth has fallen from 2 percent to zero.
Candidate Donald Trump, who understands such things as the Law of Demand, promised tax and regulatory reductions. Obama suggested that Trump would need a magic wand to reach 3 percent growth.
Instead of a magic wand, President Trump and his Republican allies paid heed to the Law of Demand. By significantly cutting the costs of doing business in the United States, American entrepreneurs, businesses and workers responded as predicted, and the economy indeed reached 3 percent growth and beyond.
No one should be surprised by that outcome. Before 2017, we’d had four major tax reforms (1920s, 1960s, 1980s and 2000s). Prior to each the economy was weak or falling and tax revenues were weak or failing. Each time doubters said a tax reduction would make things worse. Each time, however, the economy improved and tax revenues rose because of the wider economic base and activity that tax reform created.
That is why I predicted that, in the second quarter of 2018, four to six months after December 2017 tax reform passed, economic growth would top 4 percent. Historically, there is a time lag after reform. Also, historically, there is a burst of energy that is let loose after reform. Until the coronavirus, the reforms were producing stellar economic growth – even in the face of our still oversized government burdens.
Now, there can be little doubt that the coronavirus is reducing economic activity. The hospitality and travel industries are being especially hard hit. The stock market drops hurt everyone given that virtually every pension, public and private, in this country is invested in the market.
All of which brings us back to the 2020 election. If Joe Biden is indeed the Democrat nominee, he will do for economic growth exactly what the Obama/Biden administration did for eight years.
How could anyone predict otherwise?
Biden is promising to raise taxes dramatically by undoing the Trump tax reform. Biden has also said: “I guarantee you, we’re going to end fossil fuel.” In other words, Biden is going to reignite the war on business that his prior administration prosecuted. In the face of a weakened economy, the Law of Demand tells us such cost increasing policies would pull the economy under – just as increased taxes on you reduces your ability to spend and save.
Simply put, why anyone would again hire the same people who delivered the worst economic performance ever?
On the other hand, the Trump administration is already moving to further reduce the costs of doing business in America. A reduction in any tax, including the payroll tax and personal taxes as Trump has suggested, is in keeping with the Law of Demand, and is the right prescription to boost the private sector.
We face uncertain economic times. The response should not be to drain the private sector, as Biden would love to do. We should leave money in the private sector, which Trump advocates.
Today in 1965, Britain’s Tailor and Cutter Magazine ran a column asking the Rolling Stones to start wearing ties. The magazine claimed that their male fans’ emulating the Stones’ refusal to wear ties was threatening financial ruin for tiemakers.
To that, Mick Jagger replied:
“The trouble with a tie is that it could dangle in the soup. It is also something extra to which a fan can hang when you are trying to get in and out of a theater.”
Jagger is a graduate of the London School of Economics. Smart guy.
Russian media have deployed a “significant disinformation campaign” against the West to worsen the impact of the coronavirus, generate panic and sow distrust, according to a European Union document seen by Reuters.
The Kremlin denied the allegations on Wednesday, saying they were unfounded and lacked common sense.
The EU document said the Russian campaign, pushing fake news online in English, Spanish, Italian, German and French, uses contradictory, confusing and malicious reports to make it harder for the EU to communicate its response to the pandemic.
“A significant disinformation campaign by Russian state media and pro-Kremlin outlets regarding COVID-19 is ongoing,” said the nine-page internal document, dated March 16, using the name of the disease that can be caused by the coronavirus.
“The overarching aim of Kremlin disinformation is to aggravate the public health crisis in Western countries…in
line with the Kremlin’s broader strategy of attempting to subvert European societies,” the document produced by the EU’s foreign policy arm, the European External Action Service, said.
A specialist EU database has recorded almost 80 cases of disinformation about coronavirus since Jan. 22, it said.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov pointed to what he said was the lack in the EU document of a specific example or link to a specific media outlet.
“We’re talking again about some unfounded allegations which in the current situation are probably the result of an anti-Russian obsession,” said Peskov.
The EU document cited examples from Lithuania to Ukraine. It said that on social media, Russian state-funded, Spanish-language RT Spanish was the 12th most popular news source on coronavirus between January and mid-March, based on the amount of news shared on social media.
The EEAS declined to comment directly on the report.
The European Commission said it was in contact with Google, Facebook, Twitter and Microsoft. An EU spokesman accused Moscow of “playing with people’s lives” and appealed to EU citizens to “be very careful” and only use news sources they trust.
The EU and NATO have accused Russia of covert action, including disinformation, to try to destabilise the West by exploiting divisions in society.
Russia denies any such tactics, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused foreign foes of targeting Russia by spreading fake news about coronavirus to whip up panic.
Russian media in Europe have not been successful in reaching the broader public, but provide a platform for anti-EU populists and polarise debate, analysis by EU and non-governmental groups has shown.
The EEAS report cited riots at the end of February in Ukraine, a former Soviet republic now seeking to join the EU and NATO, as an example of the consequences of such disinformation.
It said a fake letter purporting to be from the Ukrainian health ministry falsely stated here were five coronavirus cases in the country. Ukrainian authorities say the letter was created outside Ukraine, the EU report said.
“Pro-Kremlin disinformation messages advance a narrative that coronavirus is a human creation, weaponised by the West,” said the report, first cited by the Financial Times.
It quoted fake news created by Russia in Italy, the second-most heavily affected country in the world, that health systems would be unable to cope and doctors would choose who lived or died because of a lack of beds.
The EEAS has also shared information with Slovakia over the spread of fake news accusing the country’s prime minister, Peter Pellegrini, of being infected with the virus and saying he may have passed on the infection to others at recent summits.
EU leaders have been conferring by videoconferences since early March.
Today in 1965, the members of the Rolling Stones were fined £5 for urinating in a public place, specifically a gas station after a concert in Romford, England.
Today in 1967, Britain’s New Musical Express magazine announced that Steve Winwood, formerly of the Spencer Davis Group, was forming a group with the rock and roll stew of Jim Capaldi, Chris Wood and Dave Mason, to be called Traffic …
Joe Biden has proven that he’s not above politicizing the coronavirus on multiple occasions. On Sunday, he doubled down on his politicization of the outbreak in an op-ed credited to him that was published on CNN, which claims that the country would be better equipped to handle outbreaks under a Biden presidency.
“No President can promise to prevent future outbreaks. But I can promise you that when I’m President, we will prepare better, respond better, and recover better,” the op-ed reads.
Here’s why that’s a bunch of malarkey.
Biden claimed that “Our government’s ability to respond effectively has been undermined by the hollowing-out of our agencies and the disparagement of science.” This is a regurgitation of an allegation he made last month when he said the Obama administration increased the budgets of the CDC and NIH, but that Trump cut the funding for these agencies. This was fact-checked by the Associated Press last month and was determined to be not true, yet Biden doubled down on the lie anyway. Neither agency saw their budgets cut.
But regardless of what Biden says he’d do differently, let’s look at his record to see what that tells us. The best way we can tell how an outbreak would be handled by a Biden administration is to look at how things were handled when Biden was vice president.
In short, not very well.
Remember the H1N1 pandemic? According to the CDC, from April 12, 2009, to April 10, 2010, there were an estimated 60.8 million cases, 274,304 hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths in the United States due to H1N1. Clearly, the United States wasn’t prepared for it. We didn’t see any travel bans to slow the spread of it.
As PJM’s Victoria Taft noted about the H1N1 outbreak, “American health officials declared a public health emergency on April 26, 2009,” yet sought to downplay the announcement, calling it “standard operating procedure.” Barack Obama didn’t declare a national emergency until October, after millions of people in the United States were already infected, at least 20,000 were hospitalized, and over a thousand had died. Had a national emergency been declared right away, it would have freed up resources to address the pandemic earlier. Perhaps if the Obama administration had treated the outbreak more seriously, fare fewer than 12,469 people would have died during the outbreak.
On a similar note, the CDC, under Obama and Biden, was slow to generate a vaccine for H1N1. Yet, Biden has the nerve to claim the CDC was better prepared on his watch than it is currently under Trump? What a joke.
I think it’s clear that the Obama-Biden administration failed to meet the challenges of the H1N1 outbreak. The Obama-Biden administration proved itself to be less than adequate during the significantly smaller-scale West Africa Ebola outbreak of 2014-2016. The Ebola outbreak was never declared a global pandemic, but the Obama-Biden administration still had to concede that there were “shortcomings” in the federal government’s response. Even CNN panned the Obama-Biden administration’s response to the scare. CDC models were way off.
The lessons learned by the Obama-Biden administration in response to the global H1N1 pandemic and the Ebola outbreak should have resulted in improvements to our country’s ability to handle outbreaks. But that never happened. “The system is not really geared to what we need right now,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “That is a failing. Let’s admit it.” Fauci was responding to a question about our nation’s coronavirus testing capacity.
The Obama-Biden administration should have taken what it learned from the H1N1 pandemic and modernized the system to be able to handle such outbreaks. As a result of that inaction, the Trump administration is now having to address these issues. But, we should trust Biden when he says he’d handle the coronavirus outbreak better than Trump, who was busy addressing the outbreak while the Democratic Party was distracted by their efforts to impeach him. In fact, Trump’s decisive actions early on saved lives, according to experts.
Ultimately there would be little difference between a Trump administration pandemic and a Biden administration pandemic, except that Democrats lock up people faster.
Steve Prestegard.com: The Presteblog 