President Biden on Tuesday hosted a White House celebration to mark the passage of the sweeping Inflation Reduction Act against an unhappy backdrop: a tumbling stock market that fell on the news that consumer prices rose in August.
Biden, in remarks to a crowd of more than 1,000 people, called the bill the “single most important legislation passed in the Congress to combat inflation, and one of the most significant laws in our nation’s history, in my view.” …
But the party-like atmosphere masked the reality that Biden must still manage a precarious economy that threatens his positive message heading into the midterms.
The consumer price index (CPI), a closely watched gauge of inflation, rose 0.1 percent in August after staying flat in July, according to data released Tuesday by the Labor Department.
Economists expected the steady decline in gas prices throughout last month to lead to a 0.1 percent decline in monthly inflation, but prices for food, electricity and other products kept rising.
The worse than expected inflation numbers sent the stock market tumbling. The Dow Jones dropped more than 1,200 points, while the S&P 500 had its worst day since June 2020.
Inflation has for months been a thorn in the side of Biden and Democrats, providing fodder for Republican attacks and sinking Biden’s approval ratings. But with the passage of the $740 Inflation Reduction Act with all Democratic votes and months of falling gas prices, Biden and his party have finally felt like they can run on good economic news.
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Today in 1968, ABC-TV premiered “The Archies,” created by the creator of the Monkees, Don Kirshner:
The number one single today in 1974 is a confession and correction:
Stevie Wonder had the number one album today in 1974, “Fulfillingness First Finale,” which wasn’t a finale at all:
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When the Supreme Court handed down its Dobbs ruling in June, speculation ran wild as to whether, or to what extent, the overturning of Roe v. Wade would redound to the GOP’s detriment in the midterms. In fact, such speculation was widespread even before the decision, thanks to the leaking of Justice Alito’s draft opinion in early May.
It was reasonable to believe that the Dobbs decision would boost turnout among Democratic voters, thereby overcoming what is often a problem for the in-power party in midterms. And it was reasonable to believe that the decision would help Democrats maintain the support of suburban women.
But it was also reasonable to doubt question whether these boosts would offset what looked a Red Wave, spurred by discontent with Joe Biden and the economy.
Either way, Dobbs was a wild card in the election — right up there with the price of gas.
As the election season progressed, the mainstream media maintained that, indeed, Dobbs was boosting the Democrats. It cited the results of a small number of special elections to support this narrative which, to repeat, was a plausible one.
But now, the Washington Post (of all organs) presents analysis showing that the group most enthusiastic about voting in November isn’t women riled up about Dobbs, but rather Republican men. Ed Morrissey (via David Strom) reports on the Post’s analysis.
That analysis is based in part on polling by YouGov and in part on an examination of post-Dobbs voter registration. As to the latter, the Post’s Phillip Bump says:
Our data shows a blurry picture: increases in states such as Pennsylvania, but not in places like New Mexico. The increase in Pennsylvania, meanwhile, didn’t occur solely post-Dobbs. There was a period in February, for example, when women made up a similarly disproportionate percentage of new registrants. Maine is another state where women have seen a surge among new registrants recently. The Post can confirm this post-Dobbs increase, but the state has also seen similar surges of women making up to 65 percent of new registrants in the past two years, well before the court decision.
On the polling front:
There’s. . .no question that Democrats have seen improved polling since Dobbs. . . That’s thanks to increases in support from both women and men in recent weeks.
Democrats had about the same level of support from women earlier this year as they do now. If we pick out three months — January, April and July — we can see that average support among women dropped in April before rebounding.
On the question of enthusiasm Bump reports:
Data provided to The Washington Post by the polling firm YouGov indicate that the group that reports the most enthusiasm about voting is the polar opposite of what many expect: Republican men. And that this enthusiasm has grown. . . .
YouGov polls weekly, so I’ve included a three-week rolling average from late April — shortly before a draft of the Dobbs decision was published by Politico — until the most recent poll at the end of August. . . .
Democratic women reported more enthusiasm after the [Dobbs] decision was released in late June, continuing an upward trend. But Democratic men expressed a much bigger surge in enthusiasm — one that was fairly short-lived.
Republican women, meanwhile, didn’t change their reported enthusiasm much following Dobbs. But more than half of Republican men now consistently report being more enthusiastic than in other years to vote in November. They’re the only group above that mark. Their reported enthusiasm has also been trending upward.
The patterns are more clear if we look at four-week groups of reported enthusiasm. If we consider the four polls before Dobbs, the four immediately after and the four most recent, you see that enthusiasm is pretty flat among independents and Republican women. For Republican men, their already-high level of enthusiasm ticked upward. For Democratic men and women, enthusiasm increased quite a bit post-Dobbs and then waned.
This polling tends to confirm Ed Morrissey’s take back in June on the likely political impact of Dobbs. He argued that because most Americans don’t live and breathe abortion every day of their lives, but do breathe issues like the economy and crime every day, Dobbs won’t be much of a factor in November.
Ed sees confirmation of this in recent “generic” polling of the race to control the House — polling that surveys “likely voters.” He cites the following August/September results:
- Insider Advantage: D+1 (500 respondents)
- Rasmussen: R+5
- Trafalgar: R+6
- CBS News: R+2
Normally, Democrats need an edge of several points in the polls just to break even in the House on election day. Thus, the polls cited above are excellent news for the GOP. However, two other recent polls in the RCP collection, including one by YouGov, have the Dems up by 4-6 points.
Like Ed, I’m encouraged by the Post’s report on voter enthusiasm. However, I’m still taking a wait-and-see approach to the midterms. And keeping an eye on that other wildcard, the price of gas.
I would think that anyone for whom abortion rights is a key issue already votes for Democrats.
Speaking of polls, Sarah Weaver:
A new Axios-Ipsos poll released Monday challenged the Democrat narrative that Republicans are out of step with the rest of Americans when it comes to democratic norms.
The poll surveyed a sample of 1,001 American adults and was conducted online between September 1 and 2, 2022. The poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Among all Americans surveyed, 35% believed Presidents should be able to remove judges whose decisions “go against the national interest.” Along party lines, 42% of Democrats agreed with this ideas against only 29% of Republicans.
Nearly a third of total Americans prefer strong unelected leaders to weak elected ones. This was a view held by 42% of Republicans and 31% of Democrats.
The percent of Republicans and Democrats who believed that the government should side with the majority over religious or ethnic minority rights was almost identical — 38% of Democrats and 39% of Republicans.
The poll’s findings come more than a week after President Joe Biden gave a speech, which a number of prominent Democrats praised, saying that Republicans “represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic.”
“They fan the flames of political violence,” Biden said.
A poll conducted shortly after Biden’s speech found that a majority of Americans thought Biden engaged in dangerous rhetoric “designed to incite conflict amongst Americans.”
This goes to show that “extremist” means “you don’t agree with me,” in the same way that “unity” and “surrender” are political synonyms.
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Today in Great Britain in the first half of the 1960s was a day for oddities.
Today in 1960, a campaign began to ban the Ray Peterson song “Tell Laura I Love Her” (previously mentioned here) on the grounds that it was likely to inspire a “glorious death cult” among teens. (The song was about a love-smitten boy who decides to enter a car race to earn money to buy a wedding ring for her girlfriend. To sum up, that was his first and last race.)
The anti-“Tell Laura” campaign apparently was not based on improving traffic safety. We conclude this from the fact that three years later, Graham Nash of the Hollies leaned against a van door at 40 mph after a performance in Scotland to determine if the door was locked. Nash determined it wasn’t locked on the way to the pavement.
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Nicole Silverio demonstrates that Joe Biden isn’t the only Democrat who believes those who don’t vote for Democrats are enemies of the(ir) country:
Former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton said Sunday that 9/11 reminds Americans to fight “extremism” amid the White House’s attacks on “MAGA Republicans.”
Clinton told CNN host Dana Bash on “State of the Union” that the fateful day of September 11, 2001, sends the message of how important it is to fight “extremism” and political violence throughout the country.
“We rebuilt New York, we have done our best to take care of the families that lost so much on that terrible day,” she said. “And we have also, I think, been reminded about how important it is to try to deal with extremism of any kind, especially when it uses violence to try to achieve political and ideological goals. So, I’m one who thinks there are lessons still to be learned from what happened to us on 9/11 that we should be very aware of during this time in our country and the world’s history.”
Clinton credited President Joe Biden for “sounding the alarm” about the posed “threats to our democracy.” She then said she wishes people would back the president in an agenda that “the vast majority of Americans approve of.”
“There’s a small, but very vocal, very powerful, very determined minority who wants to impose their views on all the rest of us and it’s time for everybody, regardless of party, to say ‘no, that’s not who we are as America,’” she said.
Clinton’s words echoed the White House’s repeated claims that supporters of former President Donald Trump and “MAGA [Make America Great Again] Republicans” are “extremists” who pose a threat to American democracy. The president said Trump and “MAGA Republicans” have a philosophy that is almost “semi-fascism” during an Aug. 26 Democratic fundraiser in Maryland.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy called on the president to apologize for his “semi-fascism” remark. MSNBC host Jonathan Capehart asked White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre during an Aug. 5 interview if the president “owes half the country an apology.” She answered that the president only referred to an extreme faction of Republicans that have tried to take over the party.
Jean-Pierre said “MAGA Republicans” are an “extremist threat to our democracy” with an agenda attempting to take rights away from Americans at an Aug. 31 briefing. She then argued at a Sept. 1 briefing that this faction of the party is extreme for believing in an agenda the majority of the country allegedly disagrees with.
“When you have national Republicans who are leaders in their political party, who sit in office, who say that they want to take away the rights, even in case of incest and in case of rape, and taking away a woman’s right to make a decision on her body,” she said. “That’s extreme, and the president’s going to call that out. He’s going to continue to do everything that he can to make sure that we protect people’s freedoms. He’s going to do everything that he can to call that out. And that is important to call out, that is important to talk about.”
“And again, we see [a] majority of Americans who disagree, and so when you are not with where a majority of Americans are, then that is extreme, that is an extreme way of thinking,” she concluded.
What a disgusting person (I could have used other words, but I’m trying to be polite) Hillary Clinton is. (But you knew that.) The perpetrators of Jan. 6 are 2,987 dead people shy of what the 9/11 terrorists did, and none of the five who died were representatives of Congress. Note as well that the U.S. Capitol building is still there.
This is what Democrats think of Republicans, including those who didn’t vote for Donald Trump.
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It is a big advantage for Joe Biden that no one takes him seriously. He spent Labor Day continuing to express animosity toward “MAGA Republicans,” and one’s instinct is to write this off as Joe rousing his party’s base for the midterm elections. It’s much more than that.
This isn’t just Joe or a blowhard Senate majority leader’s pro forma raking of the other side. No matter how feckless one thinks the occupant of the White House is, an American head of state has extraordinary powers to intimidate, investigate and, if desired, prosecute. The power of this office is incomparable. It is a mistake not to take Mr. Biden’s MAGA speeches seriously, no matter how intemperate.
The day after his dark speech in Philadelphia, Mr. Biden attempted a distinction, saying, “I don’t consider any Trump supporter to be a threat to the country,” and suggesting he was referring only to those who condone political violence. This is disingenuous. He is obviously casting a wide net.
Millions of quite-normal Americans, who wouldn’t be caught dead invading the U.S. Capitol, consider themselves MAGA Republicans, which in broad terms means they align to some degree with Donald Trump’s policies and opinions while he was president. Mr. Biden can’t use this phrase and insist he is talking only about a minority within the Republican party or American conservatism.
The president’s continued assaults on MAGA Republicans should be properly seen as an attempt both to marginalize the opposition and to intimidate it into submission and silence. The implicit threat in Mr. Biden’s thought-out aggression is that the legal and investigative powers of the state may be deployed against disfavored beliefs.
One of the most significant episodes in the use of state power to intimidate private citizens’ political behavior was the Internal Revenue Service’s investigation during Barack Obama’s first term of small tea-party groups, which organized around the goal of controlling federal spending. Some threat that was.
The IRS’s investigations of 501(c)(4) groups and delays in approving their tax status made a household name out of Lois Lerner, head of the agency’s tax-exempt groups unit. That federal offensive chilled the tea-party movement. With their just passed legislative “victory,” the Democrats and Mr. Biden are creating an army of IRS auditors.
Last October, Mr. Biden’s attorney general, Merrick Garland, issued an extraordinary order directing the FBI and U.S. attorneys to investigate “threats of violence” against school administrators and teachers. The order was directly related to parent protests over racial and gender issues in school curriculums in Loudoun County, Va.
Mr. Garland told Congress it wasn’t his intention to intimidate parents. That, too, was disingenuous. A warning shot was sent. How many parents want to risk getting entangled with FBI agents or federal prosecutors?
Much of the Democratic Party elite believes out loud that the Republican Party is totally Trumpian and should be suppressed. “The basket of deplorables” wasn’t an idea unique to Hillary Clinton. Any president presides over a government filled with loyalists, and these appointees gain access to the investigative powers of the federal state.
Mr. Biden is entitled to be peeved at the former president’s quixotic attempts to reverse the 2020 election. But by enlarging his complaint to the MAGA Republicans as a “threat to our democracy,” he is dog-whistling the Lois Lerners in his government’s enforcement agencies that the “Trumpies” are fair game.
In the private sector, the tactic of message-sending came to be known as cancel culture. Corporations, colleges and cultural organizations have exploited the same mismatch between their institutional power and the limited resources of individuals. After someone’s deviation from the new norms, it always begins with official inquiries, with investigations. It nearly always ends with social ostracism and silence.
As to the whatabout Trump issue, Mr. Biden’s MAGA speeches pointedly fail to mention that Govs. Brian Kemp, Doug Ducey, Larry Hogan and numerous other Republicans have opposed Mr. Trump’s election theories, at some political risk. What Democrat in the past two years has spoken against the politicized violence that erupted in cities across the U.S. in the summer of 2020?
Mr. Biden’s rants about restoring limits on political behavior would have a smidgen of respectability if he criticized any of his own, such as the mobs that paraded in front of the homes of all six Republican-nominated Supreme Court justices, an obvious attempt to influence them and thus a violation of federal law. His attorney general did nothing, even after a man was arrested for allegedly trying to assassinate Justice Brett Kavanaugh. In other words, the president was OK with this show of intimidation.
The siren song of using state power against opponents tempts all politicians, and that includes in a “democracy,” a word Mr. Biden invokes almost as often as MAGA. Mr. Biden achieved his goal of becoming president of the U.S. His MAGA speeches carry an undercurrent of threat inappropriate to his office. He should stop.
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Britain’s number one song today in 1963, yeah, yeah, yeah:
Today in 1966, NBC-TV premiered a show about four Beatle-like musicians:
Britain’s number one song today in 1979:
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Today in 1956, London police were called to break up a crowd of teenagers after the showing of the film “Rock around the Clock” at the Trocadero Cinema.
That prompted a letter to the editor in the Sept. 12, 1956 London Times:
The hypnotic rhythm and the wild gestures have a maddening effect on a rhythm loving age group and the result of its impact is the relaxing of all self control.
The British demonstrated their lack of First Amendment by banning the film in several cities.
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Today in 1962, the BBC banned playing the newly released “Monster Mash” by Bobby “Boris” Pickett on the grounds that it was offensive. To use vernacular of the day, that was uncool.
Eleven years later, the BBC banned the Rolling Stones’ “Star Star,” but if you play the clip you can hear why (really):
The Kinks had the number one song today in 1964:
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Today in 1926, Radio Corporation of America — then owned by General Electric Co., Westinghouse, AT&T and United Fruit Co. (now known as Chiquita Brands International) — created the National Broadcasting Co. …
… which later returned to RCA’s parent, General Electric Co. (from whose name came the famous NBC chimes), and now is part of what used to be Universal Studios …
… and is part of Comcast cable TV …
In a possibly strange way, that makes every Universal-owned show on NBC “pure NBCUniversal,” or something.