Will they stay or will they go?

In May the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported:

Wisconsin’s Legislature and Gov. Tony Evers need to approve a plan to finance $448 million of long-term renovations at American Family Field — or perhaps risk the Milwaukee Brewers moving to another city.

That’s the indirect message delivered Thursday by Major League Baseball Commissioner Robert Manfred on a visit to Milwaukee − part of a series of visits Manfred makes to MLB cities.

To be sure, Manfred didn’t explicitly say the Brewers might leave Milwaukee once the team’s lease of American Family Field expires at the end of 2030. And the ballclub’s principal owner, Mark Attanasio, has said repeatedly he wants the team to stay in Milwaukee for the long term.

But Manfred told reporters it’s important that a ballpark funding plan be promptly approved by government officials.

And he cited the Oakland Athletics’ ballpark, the publicly owned Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, as a cautionary tale.

The Athletics are planning to move to Las Vegas under a tentative deal just announced by Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo.

The team’s move is being prompted in part by the Oakland ballpark’s conditions. Major League Baseball in 2021 granted the franchise permission to pursue relocation after deciding the stadium was no longer a viable option for the Athletics.

Oakland’s local government officials “made some unfortunate decisions not to maintain the ballpark in the way that it needed to be maintained,” Manfred told reporters Thursday.

“It resulted in a decline in the attendance which had an impact on the quality of the product that the team could afford to put on the field,” he said.

“This ballpark is an asset,” Manfred said about American Family Field.

“I think the Brewers are interested in a long-term relationship and an extension of the lease that’ll keep them here,” he said.

Evers, a Democrat, in February proposed providing state cash for long-term renovations at American Family Field.

Republicans who control the Legislature rejected Evers’ proposal but have been negotiating a separate deal that has yet to be unveiled.

The ballpark is owned primarily by the state-created Southeast Wisconsin Professional Baseball Park District and is leased to the Brewers. The district is responsible for most major renovations under terms of that lease, which runs through 2030.

The renovations will cost an estimated $428 million over roughly the next 20 years, according to a study commissioned by the Brewers and reviewed by a consultant hired by the state Department of Administration.

That tab rises to $448 million with an inflation contingency. That covers such items as upgrades to the seats, concourses and gathering spaces − similar to what’s been happening at other Major League Baseball stadiums.

Evers proposed a $290 million payment for American Family Field within his $103.8 billion budget proposal.

The $448 million cost would be covered by that payment, along with interest it would earn over several years as well as $70 million in state funds already set aside by the stadium district, according to the Evers administration.

In return, the Brewers would extend the lease to the end of 2043.

Evers says keeping the Brewers in Milwaukee would generate an estimated $400 million in state sales and income taxes over 20 years.

Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, a Republican, has acknowledged those tax benefits.

But Vos has suggested City of Milwaukee and Milwaukee County funding should be part of the stadium financing package − similar to the deal that helped pay for Fiserv Forum. Local officials aren’t happy with that idea, noting that they’re facing difficulties paying for such public services as police, sanitation and parks.

Also, both Democratic and Republican legislators have suggested providing state payments in separate two-year budget cycles − while also requiring the Brewers to extend the ballclub’s lease beyond 2043.

Under the premise of questioning the premise Jon Styf writes:

The Milwaukee Brewers have reportedly threatened to look into moving the team, currently leading the National League Central, if they do not receive the taxpayer funding they want to renovate American Family Field.

The legitimacy of those threats, published anonymously by the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, are being questioned.

The Brewers have been pushing hard for the taxpayer subsidies, spending $575,000 on lobbying efforts at the state level already in the first half of 2023 despite no concrete commitments to a return. …

But, as Neil DeMause of Field of Schemes points out, the story does not state which side of negotiations the source was on and the “non-threat threat” is a common tactic used when teams are looking for stadium subsidies that he outlined in his book with the same name, Field of Schemes.

“It is at least a little alarming, if not entirely surprising, to see a major newspaper playing along with the threat without questioning it in the slightest, let alone without following journalistic ethical principles by saying, ‘Yeah, if you want to throw that allegation out there, you’re going to have to be willing to say it by name, what do we look like, stooges willing to turn over our news coverage to anyone in a position of power who wants to get something into the headlines?’ ” DeMause wrote.

Economist J.C. Bradbury of Kennesaw State University in Georgia follows stadium subsidy issues across the country, especially the Atlanta Braves’ Truist Park. The Braves, of course, moved from Milwaukee in 1966 and Milwaukee got a new team when the Seattle Pilots declared bankruptcy after one season and moved to Milwaukee.

He said it’s really hard to tell how real relocation threats are.

“Perhaps they are persuasive to legislators, especially when presented in the owner’s box during game,” Bradbury said. “I think it’s important to remember that voters really don’t like handing over tax dollars to pro sports teams (many polls show this, if you would like some links), which is why most teams have stopped the blackmailing strategies that were popular through the 1980s. Voters don’t like it, and they have a tendency to vote out representatives who approve the handouts.”

Bradbury pointed to George Petak, the Wisconsin state senator who was voted out after playing an important role in a senate vote to approve building Miller Park in 1995 using a 0.1% five-county sales tax. Petak, from Kenosha, went against strong opposition from the Racine County Board to include Racine in that sales tax.

Milwaukee County Supervisor Sheldon Wasserman recently proposed reviving the five-county sales tax to raise $400 million for stadium renovations while Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley has also asked for permission to spend some of the county’s new sales tax haul on other pension costs, freeing up funds that would have been spent on pensions for the stadium renovations.

Those proposals have been strongly opposed by County Supervisor Peter Burgelis, who said residents are strongly opposed to the sales tax.

For one thing, the county and city sales tax in Milwaukee now totals 7.9 percent thanks to recent sales tax increases. It seems as though Milwaukee’s ambition is to have Chicago’s 10.25-percent sales tax.

Petak is always brought up as a cautionary tale about approving tax increases for sports teams. There is another: George Currie, chief justice of the Wisconsin Supreme Court in 1964, when the Supreme Court approved the move of the Milwaukee Braves to Atlanta on the grounds that the state could not use antitrust law to block the move, though the Braves had to stay in Milwaukee for the 1965 season. Currie ran for reelection in 1967, and became the first chief justice to lose an election.

WisPolitics updates the story:

Assembly Speaker Robin Vos tells WisPolitics it will be essential to have a state, local and team contribution to a package to cover maintenance costs at the Milwaukee Brewers stadium in exchange for a commitment from the team to remain in Wisconsin.

The Rochester Republican also says Republicans are nowhere near wrapping up their discussions on the proposal.

Vos charged state Rep. Rob Brooks with working on a framework. The Saukville Republican told WisPolitics last week the package has evolved into a $698 million proposal that would cover 27 years.

It includes $463 million from the state through taxes off Milwaukee Brewers players and personnel, as well as visiting players. It calls for an additional $100 million from the team through things like higher rent than what it’s currently playing. And local governments would be on the hook for $135 million, or about $5 million a year.

Milwaukee County and city officials have balked at putting money toward the stadium, though Republicans have insisted that is a key component to getting it through the GOP-controlled Legislature.

“We are nowhere near specifics. His are some proposals,” Vos said of Brooks’ work. “But we’re not settled on the final numbers. We are not settled on that stuff, because we are still piecing together the whole package.”

There are points to be made on both sides, but the economic arguments against sports-team subsidies never seem to prevail. The political realities of the threat of politicians’ losing their jobs if a sports team leaves — mean that a deal to keep the Brewers will most likely happen, whether or not it should.

Will they stay or will they go?

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