When democracy is wrong

Erick Erickson has a message for the 9 percent of voters who voted for The Donald:

I’ve been telling you all since February that if the GOP nominated Trump, Hillary Clinton would win the Presidency. Well, I told you so. No amount of Laura Ingraham and others saying “Never Trump” is to blame can ignore the fact that Republican voters have been played for fools. A Trump nomination is the poop show we’ve all been telling you and you need look no further than this one data point.

“The 2016 Republican convention is the first after which a greater percentage of Americans have said they are “less likely” rather than “more likely” to vote for the party’s presidential nominee.”

I just have to wonder what friends of mine who’ve been championing Trump since the primaries have to be thinking right now. Some of them have given constant praise and even attacked good candidates like Cruz and Rubio in order to prop up Trump. The best Trump’s supporters and surrogates have is that those of us who’ve been warning you about Trump are somehow helping Hillary Clinton when it is becoming increasingly obvious that those who trumpeted Trump on radio and television and elsewhere were either delusional or put friendships ahead of saving the country from the Clintons.

I know after Romney lost, some of those on radio and television who went deeply in the propaganda tank for him saw their ratings go down significantly and it took a long time for those ratings to come back. I’m beginning to wonder, given their level of enthusiastic, uncritical support going back to 2015, if there will be a rebound this time.

This is going to end so terribly for so many people who have worked so long to try to stop Hillary Clinton, but they put their faith in a candidate with no self-discipline who turns off virtually every demographic of voter. And those of us who saw it coming have been very vocal and all the Trump folks have been denying it or casting aspersions on us.

I was on Laura Ingraham’s show back in February saying what a disaster Trump would be in the general election and she and her listeners could only mock me and laugh.

Reality beckons and it is going to be awful. This is going to be terrible for so many people. Again, for the first time ever a convention concluded with more Americans being driven away from a party than toward it.

It did not have to be this way. And yes, I did tell you so. But you were too busy accusing me of disloyalty to listen. I expect you’ll continue to blame me and others right up until the bottom falls out. For much of America, character still counts. Just not for the GOP any more.

Those who didn’t vote for Trump are why Trump is going backwards in the polls, according to Leon H. Wolf:

In Presidential elections where the Republican candidate wins or comes close, you tend to see the same dynamic unfold in terms of the ideological breakdown of the electorate. The Republican wins between 80 and 85% of conservatives, the Democrat wins between 80 and 85% of liberals, and the Democrat wins moderates by some relatively small percentage. The Republican either wins or comes close based on the strength of the fact that self-identified conservatives usually outnumber self-identified liberals by around 35%-25%. This is the dynamic you saw in both2004 and 2012, which were both very close elections.

Hidden in today’s CBS’s poll (not included in the crosstabs) is an indication that Trump’s alienation of conservatives is the reason he is behind in this poll.

Wolf reports two tweets from Steven Portnoy of CBS:

Perhaps the most startling finding in @CBSNewsPoll:
Among self-described conservatives, 21% now say they’ll vote for Clinton over Trump.

Trump’s support among self-ID’d conservatives in our@CBSNewsPoll is at 64%.
Bush in ’04 exits – 84%
McCain in ’08 – 78%
Romney in ’12 -82%

More from Wolf:

It’s impossible to do with 100% accuracy without knowing the ideological breakdown of the sample, which neither CBS nor Portnoy provide (at least not that I can see, but if you assume a sample consistent with the 2004/2008/2012 electorate that is roughly 35% self-ID’ed conservatives, moving that 35% from the usual 82-15 split in favor of the R to a 64-21 split in favor of Trump equates to about a 7-8% swing in the overall electorate.

In other words, if Trump were performing as well as the average Republican candidate among conservatives, he would be winning. He’s tanking (relatively speaking) among that group instead, so he is losing.

Make of that what you will.

UPDATE: One other point worth making. Of the 18-20% of conservatives that Trump has lost (relative to Bush/Romney), it appears that roughly one third of them have gone to outright voting for Clinton, and two thirds to some third option or undecided.

Now, many Republicans have been saying for weeks that there is no substantive difference between the two choices – that any vote for anyone not named Donald Trump is a de facto vote for Clinton. Setting aside the staggering logical problems with this assertion, let’s do the math of what it would look like if all the conservatives Trump lost cast actual votes for Clinton instead of protest votes for Gary Johnson or writing in Ted Cruz or whatever. In such a scenario, the swing among the overall electorate moves from 7-8% to 10-11%, meaning that instead of being behind by 6% in this poll, Trump would be behind by 9 or 10%.

Which is yet another illustration of the fact that no, a vote for a third party candidate is not the same as a vote for Clinton, and Trump voters should be glad for that fact.

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