How’d that vote work out for you?

We begin with the Wisconsin Taxpayers Alliance:

Wisconsin’s current unemployment rate (6.9%) is shrinking faster than the nation’s (8.1%). The state’s median household income extended its lead over the U.S. from 2.2% to 4.0%, according to latest available figures (2011). And, spending on research and development grew faster here (41%) than nationally (21%) during 2005-10.

These are some of the signs from the state’s just-released yearly report card, Measuring Success: Benchmarks for a Competitive Wisconsin 2013, that suggest Wisconsin’s economy is moving again after the Great Recession. In another encouraging sign, the number of private firms in Wisconsin rose 1.6% in 2011, the first increase since 2008 and almost double the national increase (0.9%). Firm creation is key to job growth, according to much economic research, since new jobs are mostly created by young and small businesses.

Few report cards show all “A’s,” and Wisconsin’s is no different. Although the average wage here grew 11.3% (to $47,248) during 2006-11, compared to 10.2% for the U.S., it remained 12% below the national norm. And, as it has for decades, per capita income in the Badger State continued to lag the U.S. by 5.1%.

Despite falling joblessness, the report card shows mixed results on the jobs front. In 2012, Wisconsin employment grew 0.9%, compared to 1.7% nationally and at least 1.2% in the four surrounding states. That said, Wisconsin outperformed in manufacturing; job numbers climbed 2.2% here vs. 1.6% elsewhere. …

The job and income measures reported here reveal the improving position of Wisconsin’s economy during 2011-12, but the new report card also focuses on important building blocks for future economic success:

  • Good roads and highways are critical for getting materials to producers and products to market. In a new development, Wisconsin’s overall road quality appears to be slipping. Only 40.6% of state highway miles in 2011 were rated in one of the top two smoothness categories. That was down from 57.7% in 2009, and below the national average of 56.0%.
  • High school graduation rates rose―for the third consecutive year―to 86.8%, compared to 70.1% for the nation. However, average college entrance exam scores have fallen slightly in recent years. The percent of the state’s population with a bachelor’s degree is up slightly to 26.5% but remains below the national average (28.5%).
  • Energy costs remain important for many industries. During 2009 and 2010, Wisconsin’s natural gas prices declined from $11.76 per million British thermal units (Btus) to $9.34. However, due partly to recent investment in new plants, electricity prices rose from $26.38 per million Btus to $28.66. Despite the increase, electricity prices here are slightly below the national average.
  • Often, young companies with high potential turn to venture capital firms for funds necessary to sustain growth. In 2012, Wisconsin companies received an average of $34.23 per worker in venture capital, an increase of 6.5% over the past five years. However, the state remains below the national average ($200.94 per worker) and below all neighboring states, except Iowa.

That’s the state picture. Federally, reports the Washington Post

1) Revisions. In truth, the most important parts of any jobs report are the revisions to the past two jobs reports. That’s because the initial estimate of how many jobs we added or lost in any given month is typically off by about 100,000 jobs. That’s how you get situations like August 2011, when the jobs report said we created no jobs but we later learned we’d created more than 100,000 jobs.

Revisions are where we get that better information. They’re the most accurate part of the unemployment numbers. And, in this jobs report, they’re a huge disappointment. “The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised from +188,000 to +172,000, and the change for July was revised from +162,000 to +104,000.” That means we added 74,000 fewer jobs than we thought in June and July.

2) The unemployment rate dropped for the worst reason. Unemployment dropped to 7.3 percent in August. Huzzah? Sorry, but no.

There are two reasons the unemployment rate dropped. One is that people get jobs. Huzzah! The other is that people stop looking for jobs, and so they’re no longer counted as technically unemployed. That’s what happened here. The number show 312,000 people dropping out of the labor force. That’ll be revised, but if the truth is anywhere close, it’s horrible.

3) Job creation was terrible. I know I said initial jobs reports are often misleading. And August jobs reports in particular have tended to see sharp upward revisions in recent years. But still, this report was a bummer: 169,000 jobs added. Plug that into the Hamilton Project’s handy-dandy jobs gap calculator, and you’ll find that this hiring pace will close the jobs gap sometime in 2023:

4) Unemployment among teenagers, African Americans and Hispanics remains insane. Among teenagers, the unemployment rate is 22.7 percent; for African Americans, it’s 13 percent; for Hispanics, 9.3 percent. And remember, those numbers only count people actively looking for work. Many others would like work but have stopping hunting. In these communities, then, the job market is somewhere between an awful recession and a severe depression.

Having been one of the Obama unemployed, I do not take schadenfreude out of reading Personal Liberty, other than to repeat the Facebook comment that Ignorance of the laws of economics is not an excuse:

The cynic might say that President Barack Obama is pushing to make war on Syria to distract Americans from the myriad scandals swirling around his Administration and/or his failed efforts at economic recovery. …

For instance, recovery summer never materialized — not in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 or 2013 — despite predictions by Obama and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. And guess who’s hurt the most by Obama’s policies. It’s Obama’s core demographic.

Obama received 51 percent of the vote in 2012. The five demographic groups he carried and the percentage that voted for him were youths (60 percent), single women (67 percent), blacks (93 percent), Hispanics (71 percent), and those without a high school diploma (64 percent).

According to a report by Sentier Research, since recovery summer was announced in 2009, households headed by single women have seen their incomes fall by 7 percent, and those under age 25 have seen their incomes drop 9.6 percent.

The incomes for black heads-of-household have dropped by 10.9 percent, and Hispanic heads-of-household have seen theirs drop 4.5 percent. For those with a high school diploma or less, incomes dropped 8 percent. (Incomes fell 6.9 percent for those with less than a high school diploma and 9.3 percent for those with one.)

In dollar terms, female heads of household saw their annual salaries drop by $2,300. Black-led households saw their annual salaries drop by more than $4,000, and Hispanic-led households saw their annual salaries drop $2,000.

Gallup released its monthly Payroll-to-Population survey yesterday. It showed that only 43.7 percent of the eligible population is employed, and it pegged unemployment at 8.7 percent. In 2012, those numbers were 45.3 percent and 8.1 percent.

 

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