1957 vs. 1982 vs. 2011

Last week, around the time the Brewers won the first two games of the National League Division Series, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Michael Hunt asked the question of which championship team was better, the 1982 American League champion Brewers, or the 2011 National League Central Division champion Brewers.

Some posters chose option 3, the 1957 Milwaukee Braves, which defeated the (hated) New York Yankees 4 games to 3 to win the World Series.

I bring up this comparison now because the 2011 Brewers’ season might end today with game 5 of the NLDS scheduled for late afternoon. The Brewers are one of the best home teams in baseball, but in a one-game playoff, to dust off my Greatest Sports Clichés book, anything can happen.

If the Brewers fail to get to the World Series, they will of course drop to third in any comparison of these three teams. The Braves won the World Series in 1957, got to the World Series in 1958, and were contenders for the National League pennant in 1956 and 1959 (when they lost a playoff to the Dodgers). The early ’80s Brewers got to the 1982 World Series, won the American League East second-half title in the strike year of 1981, and were a contender every season from 1978 to 1983.

Some of the choices are obvious. Ryan Braun (who batted .332 with 33 home runs, 111 RBI and an OPS of .994) is a Most Valuable Player candidate, Henry Aaron (.322, 44 HR, 132 RBI, .978 OPS in 1957) was the 1957 National League Most Valuable Player, and Robin Yount (.331, 29 HR, 114 RBI, .957 OPS) was the 1982 American League MVP.

(Before we go on, for older baseball fans: OPS stands for On-Base (Average) Plus Slugging (Percentage), a statistic in which .700 to .767 is average and anyone better than .900 is one of the best offensive players in the league.)

Other positions are fun to debate. Cecil Cooper (.313, 32 HR, 121 RBI, .870 OPS) was one of the most underrated players of his day. In 1980, Cooper batted .352, but the Royals’ George Brett batted .390. In 1982, Cooper batted .313, but Yount batted .331 and just missed the batting title. It seemed as though every season Cooper had the second or third best offensive stats on the Brewers. It’s hard to imagine the ’82 Brewers without Cooper, but it’s impossible to imagine the ’11 Brewers without Prince Fielder (.299, 38 HR, 120 RBI, .981 OPS in ’11).

Third base gives you your pick of offensive style. Eddie Mathews (.292, 34 HR, 87 RBI, .927 OPS in ’57) was to Aaron what Fielder is to Braun — a feared left-handed power hitter backing up the best all-around hitter in the lineup. Paul Molitor (.302, 19 HR, 71 RBI, 41 stolen bases, .816 OPS), for whom third base was his fifth different position (he came up as a shortstop, played second when he came to the Brewers, was moved to center field and then right in 1981, then went to third in 1982) was known as “the Igniter” because he was as complete a leadoff hitter as baseball had in those days — ability to reach base, base-stealing ability, and a little power too.

Some positions show how baseball has changed over the decades. Del Crandall was one of the best defensive catchers in baseball and at least an effective hitter. Ted Simmons was one of the best offensive catchers in baseball, although he was acquired as much for his ability to work with pitchers. Jonathan Lucroy has a lot of career ahead of him.

There’s also the effect of the midseason addition to consider. Red Schoendienst (.309, 15 HR, 65 RBI, .795 OPS) was acquired in a trade midway through the ’57 season for, among others, Bobby Thomson of “The Giants win the pennant!” fame. (Thomson’s broken leg in 1954 paved the way for Aaron to come to Milwaukee.) Don Sutton came to Milwaukee in late August 1982 (after which he was 4–1 with a 3.29 ERA); had Sutton been with the Brewers longer, perhaps they would not have nearly collapsed in the last week of the season and needed the final-game win over Baltimore to win the division.

Some players’ contributions are not quantified by statistics. Gorman Thomas was a below-average fielder and an all-or-nothing hitter (“all” meaning an average of 30 home runs per season, “nothing” meaning an average of 151 strikeouts per season) who was one of the Brewers’ clubhouse leaders. Similar things could be said of Jim Gantner (.295, 4 home runs, 43 RBI, .704).

There is one huge what-if here, in the bullpen poll. Rollie Fingers was the AL MVP in 1981, and was pitching reasonably well (5–6, 29 saves, 2.60 ERA) until his arm injury in August 1982. One wonders how the Brewers would have finished with a healthy Fingers closing games instead of Pete Ladd, who was 1–3, though with three saves, and an ERA of 4.00 after Fingers’ injury. (For that matter, Ladd pitched perfectly, as in an ERA of 0.00, in the 1982 ALCS. However, he pitched only once in the World Series, giving up a hit and two walks to four batters.)

But that’s not the only what-if. Billy Bruton played only half the season for the ’57 Braves due to injury. Rickie Weeks (.269, 20 HR, 49 RBI, .818 OPS) missed part of this season due to injury and could only pinch-hit in the 2008 playoffs due to injury.

On the other hand, the injury-related what-ifs lead to opportunity for others. Ladd is an obvious example. An even better example is Bob “Hurricane” Hazle, who had the half-season of his life (he played just three years in the majors) when the Braves called him up in 1957. Hazle had what might have been a prorated All-Star season — .310, 7 HR, 27 RBI in 41 games, with an insane OPS of 1.126. He finished fourth in the Rookie of the Year balloting based on 41 games.

Pitching probably best reflects the differences in eras, which makes comparing eras difficult. Certainly all three teams had name pitchers. It’s hard to top Warren Spahn (21–11, 2.69 ERA) and Lew Burdette (17–9, 3.72 ERA), even though Burdette had a higher ERA than his career ERA in 1957. (Two words: “Run support.”) The Braves’ third starter, Bob Buhl, picked a good time to have the best year of his career (18–7, 2.74 ERA). Gene Conley, Bob Trowbridge and Juan Pizarro shared the fourth starter spot. The bullpen was where failed starters or rookies went in the ’50s, but in any era, a 1.54 ERA is a 1.54 ERA, so Don McMahon certainly helped the Braves.

The reputation of the 1982 “Harvey’s Wallbangers” Brewers was that they overcame mediocre pitching with their hitting. Pete Vuckovich was to the ’82 Brewers what Burdette was to the ’57 Braves — a relatively high era (3.34) overcome by run support (as shown by his 18–6 record). Mike Caldwell made up for a mediocre regular season (17–13, 3.91 ERA) with a tremendous World Series (2–0, 2.04 ERA). Vuke and Mr. Warmth (as Caldwell’s T-shirt worn under his jersey said, although there was another word on it that rhymes with “tucking”) were the only two Brewers’ starters (over the full season) with ERAs of less than 4.00.  The Brewers plainly would not have won the AL East without Sutton. But the pitcher who really saved the ’82 Brewers was Jim Slaton, who went 10–6 with a 3.29 ERA going between the rotation and the bullpen.

The 2011 Brewers shouldn’t have enough pitching, by statistics, to have one more win than the ’82 Brewers and the ’57 Braves, but they do. As I noted last week, it’s a bit ironic that for all the wheeling and dealing general manager Doug Melvin did to put together a winning pitching staff, their best starter remains home-grown Yovani Gallardo (17–10, 3.52 ERA). Shawn Marcum pitched better statistically than Zack Greinke (3.83 vs. Marcum’s 3.54), but Greinke has the better record (16–6 in 28 starts vs. Marcum’s 13–7 in 33 starts). Interestingly, Randy Wolf (13–10, 3.69 ERA) pitched the most innings as a starter this year, and is sort of 2011’s answer to Caldwell.

The reason the Brewers probably did as well as they did pitching-wise is their bullpen. The Brewers have been able to turn most games into six-inning games, thanks to seventh-inning pitcher LaTroy Hawkins (3–1, 2.42 ERA), eighth-inning pitcher Francisco Rodriguez (4–0, 1.86 ERA since coming to Milwaukee from the Mets) and closer John Axford (2–2, 46 saves, making them perhaps the 2011 equivalent of the 1990 Cincinnati Reds “Nasty Boys” bullpen.

The best way to statistically compare teams is against their competition. This year’s Brewers had the second best record in the National League despite being seventh in ERA and fifth in runs scored (despite, in the latter case, leading the NL in home runs). The 1982 Brewers were first in runs scored and sixth in ERA, an unusual formula for the best record in baseball. The 1957 Braves were best in the NL with the second best ERA and the most runs scored.

By the only measure that really counts, the 1957 Braves are the best baseball team Milwaukee ever produced, since they have a world championship. Where the 2011 Brewers finish depends on where they finish, beginning with today.

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