This week’s Bloomberg BusinessWeek includes its special Bloomberg Government Insider section, headlined “States of Play: How to game the six states that will decide who wins the White House in 2012.”
And guess which state is one of the six?
Wisconsin: Worked-Up Unions
Widespread disenchantment with both the governor and Obama makes the highly polarized state the perfect stage for a debate over the role of government
Wisconsin is the republic of political unhappiness. Six of 10 voters disapprove of Republican Governor Scott Walker, who picked a fight with public-sector unions by curbing their collective-bargaining rights. Labor mobilized, and voters bounced two state senators in recall elections in August. A campaign to oust Walker gets under way in November. …
Voter grumpiness knows no party lines: Obama, who carried Wisconsin with 56 percent of the vote, now faces widespread disenchantment. A statewide poll by SurveyUSA in late August found 50 percent disapproved of his performance in office, though his approval rating, at 45 percent, was higher than in most national soundings. …
Although Wisconsin is often caricatured as a hotbed of left-wing activism, thanks to university town Madison, the state in fact is complex and polarized. “The extreme right wing and extreme left wing have become more and more entrenched,” says J.B. Van Hollen, Wisconsin’s Republican attorney general. “I think people in the middle of the road are more disgusted than anything with politics, but not necessarily with government.”
The Midwestern state is the perfect stage for a debate over the role of government. On one side is its heritage of progressivism embodied by Robert La Follette, the fiery U.S. senator who opposed World War I, railroad interests, and child labor. On the other is the modern-day vision of smaller government and reduced entitlements articulated by U.S. Representative Paul Ryan, a Wisconsin Republican and chairman of the House Budget Committee.
If Walker enraged organized labor, Obama’s health-care reforms and economic stimulus programs “helped mobilize the conservative base and contribute to their resurgence in ’09 and ’10,” says Charles Franklin, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin at Madison. “You’ve got an unhappy middle class, unhappy with their situation. They were looking for someone to improve it, and then they were disappointed when that didn’t happen.”
The state is up for grabs, says Franklin, adding that Obama’s 2008 margin of victory was an aberration. “It is Democrat with a small d,” he says.
I’m not sure how you can describe as “Democrat-with-a-small-d” a state whose electoral votes haven’t gone for a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan. Yes, one year ago voters swept out Democrats left and, well, left, and declined to elect Gov. James Doyle’s would-be successor, but I assume that to be disgust over the grotesque failure that was the 2009–10 Legislature controlled by Doyle’s party.
Speaking of Doyle, Bloomberg asked him (as it asked politicians from each of those six states) “How to win my state.” I wonder if there’s a veiled message in Doyle’s response:
“Get your base out and do everything you can to get the independents to break your way. People are stressed and the election will be a very contentious election, but I think people will recognize it’s not an easy thing to do to govern in difficult times, and that it takes someone who is looking for good, reasonable, middle-of-the-road solutions to problems.”
Independent of the laughable first sentence given the continuous slander machine that was the 2006 Doyle campaign against former U.S. Rep. Mark Green — who has more character in one finger than Doyle will see in his entire life — Doyle’s reference to “good, reasonable, middle-of-the-road solutions to problems” cannot possibly refer to his party. That does not describe Democrats’ three-part response to the $2.9 billion in red ink Doyle and Democrats left the state, which was (1) to deny that the problem existed and (2) to propose substantially raising taxes even beyond the $2.1 billion tax increase Doyle and Democrats shoved down taxpayer throats while (3) doing absolutely nothing about cutting government spending.
Assuming we will have to endure a recall election against Walker this coming year, it will be interesting to hear what those who couldn’t be bothered (except for Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett) to run for governor answer how they would be a better governor than Walker. It will also be amusing to not hear the two words that propelled Recallarama, but were never uttered by Democrats: “Collective bargaining.”
Wisconsin’s inclusion on Bloomberg’s list is another depressing sign that we will be cursed any second now with an unending parade of presidential campaign advertising, to go with the unending parade of U.S. Senate campaign advertising, to go with the unending parade of House of Representatives campaign advertising in at least three House districts (the Second, where U.S. Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D–Madison) is running for the Senate, and the Seventh and Eighth, with their new Republican reps), to go with the unending parade of recall campaign advertising. I should buy a TiVo.
The lead story in the Bloomberg Government Insider (what a depressing title) includes this subhead: “The 2012 election will hinge on whether voters will blame Barack Obama for the weak economy.” I’ll answer Bloomberg’s rhetorical question: Of course voters will blame Obama for the weak economy if the economy is still weak one year from now. Voters have credited or blamed the incumbent party in the White House for the economy every presidential election since 1976. One would think it would require substantial economic improvement, noticeable by everyone, for Obama to win reelection in 2012. But voters have made poor choices before — for instance, the last presidential election.


