The number one song today in 1965 was this pleasant-sounding, upbeat ditty:
That was on the same day that ABC-TV premiered a cartoon, “The Beatles”:
The number one British song today in 1968:
The number one song today in 1965 was this pleasant-sounding, upbeat ditty:
That was on the same day that ABC-TV premiered a cartoon, “The Beatles”:
The number one British song today in 1968:
The budget-process contortions in both houses of Congress just now can be a little hard to parse. A lot of them have taken the form of battles over procedure, which can get mind-numbing pretty quickly. At various times, the House has been intensely focused on rules votes and the Senate has been mired in arguments about suspending the prohibition on non-germane amendments on appropriations bills. These procedural squabbles matter, but they are ultimately proxy fights. The real battle is a dispute about how to exercise leverage in the modern Congress. It’s now happening mostly among Republicans, and it divides Republicans more starkly than Democrats in Congress, but it’s a disagreement that has been evident in both parties when they’ve had to make governing decisions in recent years.
The best way to grasp that dispute might be to break down what we’re seeing into three distinct dynamics.
The first important dynamic to understand about Congress in an age of narrow majorities is that the chamber that is harder for its majority party to manage sets the tone for the institution. In the last Congress, that was the Senate. Democrats had a narrow majority there, as they did in the House, but because of the filibuster, and of the nature of the Democratic caucus, the Senate was much harder to wrangle. Speaker Pelosi’s Democratic House majority didn’t want to do anything until the Senate acted, since whatever they did would likely be for naught. And so the House became a rubber stamp on bills that had passed the Senate, and the substantive work of Congress mostly happened in the upper chamber.
In this Congress, it is the Republican House that has the greatest trouble getting anything done, and therefore it’s the House that sets the tone. The Senate has certainly tried to assert itself some, but the demands of getting things through the House have dictated a lot.
That is really key to what is happening in the Senate this week. Senators from both parties had agreed last week (by an 85–12 vote) to get the budget process moving with a so-called “minibus,” which would combine three appropriations bills into one. The idea was to force the hand of the House a bit on spending levels. But precisely for that reason, a number of Republican senators, led by Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson, refused to provide the unanimous consent required to bundle those bills. Senate Democrats tried to suspend the relevant rule (which prevents that bundling because it restricts the kinds of amendments that can be made to appropriations bills), but didn’t have the Republican support they needed to do that.
Johnson’s opposition to bundling those bills is rooted in part in a desire to appropriate through individual bills, which would give Republicans more chances to propose amendments. But it is also very much a function of his and some other Republican senators’ desire to avoid jamming the House — on spending levels, on Ukraine funding, and on the sort of bill they end up voting on. Those senators are particularly sensitive to the needs of the House Freedom Caucus members. They don’t want to be seen to undercut those members, since the HFC is at the center of the drama that the party’s populist activists are focused on right now — a drama that has everything to do with how leverage works in Congress.
The Senate will surely try to assert itself again — whether on this bill, on Ukraine, or in general. And in a divided Congress, one house isn’t going to be a rubber stamp for the other. But it’s clear that much more can get through the Senate than the House, and that gives the House some added power and initiative. Eventually, whether in this process or in the year-end appropriations process that will likely follow, there is probably going to be some negotiation between the White House and House Republicans, and the Senate will basically need to accept what emerges. We’re very far from that now, and it may take a government shutdown and further drama to get from here to there, but that seems the likely destination.
The second dynamic to keep in mind is that everyone believes they are trying to help Congress work like it’s supposed to, but they disagree about how it’s supposed to work. This is hard for each side to believe about the other right now. The House Freedom Caucus members and their Senate allies seem to their opponents like self-destructive nihilists who don’t care about Congress, or the country. The leaders (and most members) of both parties strike those HFC conservatives as establishment hacks who just want to defend the status quo, enrich their cronies and patrons, and avoid rocking the boat.
The HFC members and their friendly senators (like Ron Johnson) are making a kind of process argument — insisting that the appropriations process should involve a dozen separate bills, each of which can be amended and debated, rather than a massive and indecipherable “omnibus” behemoth (or a few smaller but still massive “minibus” behemoths) patched together in the leadership offices and foisted on most members. Their opponents in and out of leadership are making a process argument too — insisting that legislation has to be negotiated in a divided Congress and that giving up the only leverage you have by declaring you’ll never agree to anything only helps the other party and guarantees a worse outcome.
Both groups have a point, but their different points suggest very different understandings of what is supposed to happen in Congress. Because they view their opposition as an establishment blob that just wants to make comfortable deals, some of the HFC members have come to view the legislative process itself as a form of corruption. They say they want a more open legislative process, but they fault fellow members for negotiating with Democrats at all, or for looking for deals on spending levels, which is actually what an open process would involve. They implicitly disagree with their colleagues about whether it is necessary to negotiate with the other party in order to achieve anything. Their view is that their party’s job is to avoid such negotiation, and that preventing it is how they ought to use the leverage they have as members of Congress — that this is what they owe their voters.
This is not the view of all the Freedom Caucus members, as this week has made particularly clear, but it is the view of enough of them to paralyze the party right now. It is a view with deep roots in a particular kind of Republican approach to Congress, which evolved over the four decades in which Democrats controlled the House, from 1954 to 1994. Republicans were congressionalists at the beginning of that era, but by the end of it they had transformed into presidentialists and they had come to view Congress as a den of corrupt miscreants. That attitude didn’t really change even when Republicans took control of Congress in 1994. The Contract with America was mostly an indictment of congressional corruption, and the Gingrich-era Republicans never really shook off the sense that there was something sinister about Congress working as a legislature — a venue for bargaining and accommodation.
In more recent years, this critique has melded uneasily with a criticism of overbearing leadership in both houses, which is actually a very different kind of argument. Some HFC members, like Representative Chip Roy, are advancing the latter case — a case that leadership is too strong and everyone else in Congress is too weak, which is a serious case and seems largely right to me. They want members to be able to legislate, rather than just answer to party leaders. Some of their supporters in the Senate make this case too — like J. D. Vance, who has shown himself to be a substantive and legislation-minded senator so far, willing to work with anyone from either party where there is some chance to advance his priorities. But other HFC members, like Representative Matt Gaetz, use similar-sounding process arguments as a way to denounce legislative work as such. They don’t actually want weaker leaders and stronger members, they want leaders who will enforce a more purist party line and members who will refuse to negotiate with Democrats.
So for instance, Representative Dan Bishop of North Carolina voted against the rule required to advance the Defense Appropriations bill in the House on Tuesday, and after doing so he put out a statement saying: “I took down the rule — as I vowed I would — because the Conference continues not to have moved 12 appropriations bills at the spending level agreed to in January.” But the rule he took down was a necessary step to moving one of those appropriations bills. Bishop presented his opposition to the process involved in appropriations as rooted in an insistence that this process happen, but at its core it is a recoil from the core work of legislation.
The same is true regarding the attitude of some of these members toward a cross-partisan spending deal. They treat the prospect of getting Democratic votes for a continuing resolution as a betrayal, but they are not themselves willing to vote for a measure that could actually get enacted, and so they leave their fellow Republicans with no choice but to fulfill their prophecy of betrayal. Consider what Representative Ken Buck told Punchbowl News on Tuesday about whether Speaker McCarthy was in danger of a motion to vacate the chair and remove him from the speakership:
“The thing that would force the motion to vacate is if Kevin has to rely on Democrat votes to pass a CR,” Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) said. “I don’t think it has legs until Kevin relies on Democrats.”
Buck, however, admitted “I don’t see how we can pass the bill [a CR] without Democrat votes.”
In other words, Buck thinks the speaker should be thrown out unless he manages to do something Buck thinks is impossible.
This can easily seem irrational, but it’s more like an expression of a different understanding of the role of Congress and its members than the one that most members (and the Constitution) have. I think it’s mistaken, but it’s not incoherent. Buck, Bishop, Gaetz, and others implicitly take their job to be both expressing and acting on the view of their core constituents that the party establishment has to be resisted. That resistance is an end in itself, even if it does not achieve any substantive legislative goals. In fact, fighting and losing is a kind of confirmation of the underlying dynamic they are playing out. So for these members, it is more important to avoid being part of the Washington game — the game of making deals with people you and your voters think are destroying the country — than it is to advance any substantive agenda. Being betrayed confirms that they are right to be intransigent.
These members aren’t a majority of House Republicans, or anything close to that. They’re not even all the Freedom Caucus members, as I’ve noted. In fact, the tensions between these two kinds of Freedom Caucus members have risen to the surface a bit in this process, as when those (like Roy) who want more legislating to happen negotiated some continuing-resolution language with a group of moderate Republicans only to see it rejected by other HFC members. But because the Republicans’ majority is extremely narrow, there are enough members who don’t want the House to legislate that the House Republican conference as a whole is stuck trying to bridge these two different ways of thinking about how to be a member of Congress.
Kevin McCarthy has actually shown himself to be pretty adept at playing this game so far. He has grasped that it needs to be played in stages, because the recalcitrant HFC members want to look strong and then to look weak, and it’s possible for the leadership to give them that sequence of outcomes. But it’s a very hard game to sustain in the face of the substantive pressure to govern.
Our system of government is designed to compel partisans to work with each other. That’s one of its great strengths. But that does mean that it is a poor fit for a conception of politics in which bargaining with people you disagree with is understood to be a betrayal and a failure.
In a sense, the question at issue is: What do you get when you win a seat in Congress? The answer the Constitution suggests is that you get a seat at the table, and what happens at that table is negotiating, bargaining, and accommodation toward government action in response to public problems. You get to represent your voters in that process, and to negotiate on their behalf so that their interests are accounted for in the final outcome. That’s how representative democracy makes it possible for differences to be accommodated and addressed in our frequently divided society. Lots of people (especially on the left, but also on the right) have always been frustrated with that answer, and called for a system in which winning an election gives the majority party a mandate to act on its own. But our system doesn’t work that way; it prioritizes coalition building over policy efficiency, and rightly so.
But in our time, some populist members of both parties have implied that what you win when you win an election to Congress is a voice, and that the best and highest use of this voice involves voicing a critique of elite power, and where possible acting on that critique to obstruct and disrupt the uses of that power.
Obviously these views coexist to some degree, even within the self-understanding of individual members of Congress. But they are quite distinct views of what the institution is for, and the gap between them is at times a very practical problem for Congress, particularly when voter expectations are shaped by the more populist view.
This points to the third dynamic we can see in action this month on Capitol Hill: Electoral incentives are badly and in some respects increasingly misaligned with legislative incentives. The nature of the modern primary system means that many members of Congress are most concerned about voters who do not want them to give ground or compromise. This effectively means they find it politically dangerous to do the job the institution exists to do. This misalignment is obviously very bad for our system of government. And responding to it constructively would require us to really think about what we value about that system.
Simply put, the design of the Congress makes a significant amount of cross-partisan bargaining necessary, but the nature of the primary system (as it interacts with our polarized political culture) now makes such cross-partisan bargaining increasingly unlikely. The question for would-be reformers is which of these institutions needs to change. Should we look to change Congress so that cross-partisan bargaining is less necessary, or to change some of the incentives confronting politicians in our party system so that cross-partisan bargaining is more likely? Should our institutions lean in to the worst vices of our polarized politics, or counteract them?
Most progressives since Woodrow Wilson have argued for a Congress that requires less cross-partisan bargaining. They have sought stronger party leadership and discipline and the elimination of supermajority requirements and assorted mechanisms of restraint. Conservatives have generally disagreed, and the argument that Freedom Caucus Republicans make against the power of party leaders and in favor of something like regular order suggests on its face that they disagree too. But these very Republicans are most responsive to electoral pressure for more disciplined partisan purity and less bargaining with the other party.
Those pressures should not be mistaken for the unvarnished voice of the people. Electorates are structured by electoral institutions — the sorts of questions asked of voters often shape the kinds of answers they provide. And the contemporary party-primary system frames an electorate that too often is distinctly unfriendly to the demands of legislative work. That primary system is not sacrosanct. It is not as important — or as established or legitimate—as the constitutional system. And it is increasingly clear that enabling members of Congress to do their jobs is going to require some reforms of party primaries, and therefore of the incentives members confront.
But that is long-term work. In the meantime, Congress has once again to contend with the reality that a small but meaningful minority of its members have a vision of their jobs that abjures core legislative work as illegitimate. Speaker McCarthy has to manage his way through that challenge in stages. And it sure looks like one of those stages is going to have to be a government shutdown.
We begin with an odd moment today in 1962: Elvis Presley’s manager, Col. Tom Parker, declined an invitation on Presley’s behalf for an appearance before the Royal Family. Declining wasn’t due to conflicting film schedules (the stated reason) or anti-royalism — it was because Parker was an illegal immigrant to the U.S. from the Netherlands (his real name was Andreas Cornelis van Kuijk), and he was afraid he wouldn’t be allowed back into the U.S.
Number one in Britain today in 1964:
Number one in Britain …
… and in the U.S. today in 1983:
The number one song today in 1957:
The number one song today in 1967:
Today in 1969, the Northern Star, the Northern Illinois University student newspaper, passed on the rumor that Paul McCartney had died in a car crash in 1966 and been impersonated in public ever since then. A Detroit radio station picked up the rumor, and then McCartney himself had to appear in public to report that, to quote Mark Twain, rumors of his death had been exaggerated.
(Thirty-five years to the day later, in 2004, Slipknot’s Corey Taylor issued a statement denying his death after a Des Moines radio station announced he had died from a drug overdose, then correcting to say Taylor had died in a car crash.)
Wisconsin Right Now editorializes:
The Republicans’ more than $700 million plan to maintain and renovate the Milwaukee Brewers’ stadium should be a no-go. Gov. Tony Evers’ plan is also a non-starter. We are proposing an alternative plan that meets the Brewers’ maintenance needs, spends less, and reduces the pain on the state, City of Milwaukee, and Milwaukee County taxpayers.
This is all backwards. You’d expect Democrats and a Democratic governor to oppose handing millions of dollars to a rich company owner, yet here we are. You’d expect Republicans to propose spending LESS overall than Democrats, yet here we are. That being said, there are elements of the Republicans’ plan that we really like, such as the “jock tax” concept. We retain them.
We would note that the Brewers asked for $428 million in a December 2022 consultant study (VSG) on maintenance and renovation requests. The Republican plan exceeds that by almost $300 million. We don’t support that.
That report did say the stadium has been well-maintained. It’s important to note that the maintenance needs are projected needs through 2040; the stadium is not currently falling apart. The consultants have studied many well-known stadiums. …
This is a VERY important distinction:
Republicans squeezed $100 million out of the Brewers and are demanding $202 million from the cash-strapped locals but then they added those contributions ON TOP of the VSG request. In other words, they expanded far beyond what even the Brewers were asking for. That’s how they get to $714 million. Why give the Brewers more than they said they needed?
In contrast, our plan starts with the Brewers’ VSG maintenance and renovation request but then subtracts the Brewer contribution and local contributions from it. Those contributions should go toward the maintenance request. We agreed with adding $25 million in winterization costs because winter events are projected to bring in significant revenue, so that made sense.
As a point of comparison, we would note that $250 million in public money was spent on the $524 million Bucks stadium (including $47 million from the city through tax incremental financing). Our plan is most in line with that precedent. For comparison purposes, the plan included $174 million from the Bucks’ owners and $100 million from former Sen. Herb Kohl. (The state contribution to the Bucks was $160 million, but the state got $80 million back through a shared revenue reduction.) In 2021, it was estimated the Bucks’ playoffs had a $58 million economic impact, and most people today are happy Fiserv exists. Our plan is closest.
Here’s the tale of the tape on the competing Brewers plans. We tried to take the best elements of each plan.
The Republican Plan
Total: $714 million. State contribution: $386 million, winterization $25 million (Also paid for by the state), $100 million from the Brewers, $135 million from Milwaukee County, and $67.5 million from the City of Milwaukee. The Milwaukee and state contributions would be spread out annually, with the state contributions coming from players’ income taxes.
The Evers Plan
Total: $448 million. $290 million cash upfront from the state surplus, interest payments, and $70 million from the stadium board. Evers based the latter on the study conducted by the Brewers’ consultant, but we are told that the stadium board has spent some of it, and they don’t have the full $70 million anymore. Evers asked for NO money from locals or the Brewers, beyond what the Brewers already pay in rent ($1.2 million a year).
WRN’s Milwaukee Brewers Stadium Plan
Total: $447,700. Our plan includes the $100 million contribution from the Brewers but applies it to the maintenance request. It also includes $179 million from the state jock tax, $40 million in state funding shifted from the Milwaukee Public Museum, $25 million for winterization from the state, $45 million from Milwaukee County (shifted from the museum), and $18.7 million from the City of Milwaukee (keeping the annual total the same as they are already paying for the old stadium). The Brewers contribution in our plan is in addition to the rent they currently pay.
If the museum money can’t be shifted, the county and city would still have to pay the amounts listed, but we’ve halved their contributions (on a percentage basis) from the Republican plan.
We understand the temptation to say no public money should fund the stadium, but we do think the practical reality of such a pure stance would be that the Brewers would leave. We think having a major league baseball team is an asset to the state’s economy as a whole. We grew up with the 1982 Brewers, and we believe the team is embedded in our state’s psyche.
According to the non-partisan Legislative Fiscal Bureau, income tax generated within the stadium district is estimated to total $666.5 million over the length of this lease. The GOP proposal will net the state roughly $242.9 million in income tax collections between now and 2050.
We asked if the state could just sell the stadium to the Brewers for $1 to eliminate this problem down the road, but we’re told that the Brewers wouldn’t buy it.
We started with the premise that it’s good to keep the Brewers here. The team currently owns an undivided 35.77% interest in the stadium project and the Stadium District, an independent entity created by the state, currently owns an undivided 64.23% interest in the stadium project. That means if the Brewers leave, the state would basically own an empty stadium albatross.
We spoke to state Rep. Rob Brooks, the Republican from Saukville who helped author the Republican plan. He said the Republican plan attempts to have $100 million left over in reserves at the end of 2050. While nice, we think tough choices have to be made and eliminated that provision.
If the Brewers leave, the state will lose millions in revenue, he said. Brooks told us that Republicans are open to negotiating their numbers. We do like the Republican provision to change membership on the Stadium Board, which is currently dominated by Democratic appointees. The Republican goal is to put more people on the Board with construction experience and to balance out the political representation. This provision should be retained.
How It All Breaks Down
In case you missed it, Gov. Tony Evers proposed his $448 million plan that included an upfront state cash “bailout” for the Brewers with zero contribution from them or local government. Republicans correctly rejected this, but they jacked up the price tag to more than $700 million by extending the lease duration, winterizing the stadium, and adding (versus subtracting) the hefty contributions from the locals and Brewers. Both plans are flawed, but the Republican plan has some very good elements that we want to retain.
We poured through documents and conducted a series of interviews in an attempt to understand how the Republican figure ballooned from Evers’ ask, which was based on the December 2022 study by a Brewers-commissioned consultant, VSG, which estimated $428 million in maintenance needs for the stadium through 2040. Evers tacked on an extra $20 million for inflation.
Evers went with the VSG amount as the baseline, even though his Department of Administration commissioned a separate study that inflated that number even more. We are going with the more conservative VSG study amount, $428 million. After all, why should state taxpayers give the Brewers more than they asked for? Both the Democratic and Republican plans did this. We disagree.
We also scrutinized the VSG and DOA study [American Family Field Assessment Review FINAL (1)] carefully. We understand there is a lease provision requiring the stadium district to pay for upgrades to keep up with other stadiums. Even so, some of the maintenance requests struck us more as wants than needs. For example, the VSG study notes that the clubhouse lacks a “wow” factor and also recommends creating new social spaces for young generation fans who, unlike older ones, don’t want to sit in traditional seats to actually watch the game. …
Our plan would require $5.3 million in savings, either from VSG’s $428 million maintenance requests or from the winterization budget, or both. …
There are things we really like about the Republican plan. For example, Evers asked Brewers’ owner Mark Attanasio, who is worth $700 million (the team is worth $1.2 billion) to pony up exactly nothing. This is indefensible. We would note the governor just vetoed a tax cut on working-class Wisconsinites and retired folks. Yet now he wants to spend more state money to help a wealthy team owner while not expecting him to contribute a dime.
Outrageous. We would also note that Attanasio is dealing with some issues that teams in larger cities don’t have because of lower television ad revenue. We’ve never seen a detailed breakdown of Brewers’ financials, however; Republicans should ask for one.
The Republican plan includes a $100 million Brewer contribution, which we retain.
We like the idea of an entertainment district around the stadium. Deal with it through a TIF.
Milwaukee Contributions
At the same time, Republicans are demanding a combined $202 million from the City and County of Milwaukee, albeit through $2.5 million and $5 million annual contributions, respectfully. We believe the city and county should contribute something to the plan because they do get millions of dollars in sales tax from sales within the stadium. The city/county would lose that money if the Brewers leave, and that’s a practical reality if no deal gets done.
However, our plan HALVES the city/county contribution. We would note that the state just allowed the city/county to increase its sales tax (which hits the poor hardest) to avoid bankruptcy.
It seems incongruent to acknowledge the locals are teetering on bankruptcy and then to take some of that money back through a large forced spending increase for a stadium whose fan base is only 22% of the city. We want Milwaukee to get its fiscal house in order; our plan gives them space to do that.
Assembly Speaker Robin Vos baked a lot of great provisions into that sales tax bill to prevent them from frittering away the sales tax/shared revenue increases by preventing them from cutting law enforcement budgets or spending it on the trolley. That was great.
The entire state benefits if Milwaukee succeeds.
The Republican plan makes the wealthy team owner pay less than one of the state’s poorest counties. That’s wrong, and we fixed it.
We have a divided government, so both sides are going to have to grasp the political realities and feelings of the other.
We also understand the political reality; Republicans need to sell this to northern Wisconsin Republican legislators whose voters, in say Superior or Eagle River, won’t necessarily understand why they need to pay for a baseball stadium six hours away. They may bolt with zero local contribution from Milwaukee; after all, they are the MILWAUKEE Brewers.
We also grasp the political reality for Democrats; they aren’t going to vote for the $202 million for locals in the current plan, and Democratic support is necessary to attain Gov. Tony Evers’ signature. The Republican plan is dead without Evers’ signature.
We get that it’s a tough sell for Milwaukeeans to be asked to pay big contributions to renovate a stadium that was built with money from MULTIPLE counties, including more affluent ones. But now they aren’t being asked to share the pain.
Our plan offers a compromise. The city and county must have some skin in the game, but we’ve cut what the Republicans want them to pay in half. Furthermore, our plan provides them with a creative way to pay it to reduce the pain.
Here’s how:
- City of Milwaukee: Members of the Milwaukee Common Council whipped out a press release that revealed they are already paying $1.1 million a year in debt service for the OLD stadium, through 2029. The Republican plan would make them pay $2.5 million a year on top of that. Evers makes them pay nothing. Our plan gives them a three-year moratorium and then requires them to pay $1.1 million a year for the duration of the plan. There would be three years of double payments, but, as noted, they do receive significant sales tax revenue. For most of our plan, the city would just pick up and continue paying the same amount once the old debt service runs out.
- Milwaukee County: We have a very creative approach to suggest to the Milwaukee County Board. The Republican plan makes the County pay $5 million a year; Evers makes the county pay none. We are asking for a $45 million contribution, which would amount to about $2.25 million a year – for 7 fewer years. Thus, we are splitting the difference. However, we further suggest this:
Pull the Milwaukee Public Museum Funding
We believe that Milwaukee County supervisors should rescind the $45 million they granted to the new Milwaukee Public Museum, which has not yet broken ground, and shift it to the Brewers Stadium plan. MPM’s website says that its fundraising has lagged; they have raised only $128 million, which includes $85 million in state and county aid. Their budget is $240 million, so they are more than $100 million short, with plans to break ground in December, according to their website.
MPM promised to give new fundraising numbers in late summer, but now tell us that won’t happen for a few weeks. We’ve outlined a number of concerns with the new museum project. Furthermore, there is a lot of public sentiment AGAINST a new museum, especially over their planned elimination of the historic Streets of Old Milwaukee and European Village exhibits.
MPM should attempt to use the private money it has already raised to build an off-site storage facility to protect the county collections, and then simply upgrade the current building, which is an absolute treasure of fan favorites, historic art, and nostalgia.
The county’s $45 million for the museum has not yet been spent. Milwaukee County supervisors should pull it NOW. Shift it to the Brewers, which generate sales tax for the county. If the county rescinds the money, it’s possible the state could also rescind its $40 million grant to the museum, since that grant was contingent on local contributions.
We understand there could be legal concerns with pulling the museum money, but we have uncovered information that could make this far easier for the County to do (we are saving that for an upcoming story, so stay tuned). If it ends up not being possible to pull the museum money, then we think the $45 million contribution still seems fair, in light of the sales tax generated by the stadium, and the County will have to find another place to get it.
No to the Five-county Stadium Sales Tax
Why are we not asking for any money from the surrounding counties? Many remember that the stadium was built in the first place using sales tax money generated by multiple counties, including Racine. This led to the recall of a Republican legislator, George Petak, and Republicans lost control of the state Senate over it. The sales tax expired in 2020.
It’s simply a political reality: there is no will to go through that again. And although folks from the surrounding counties (like Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington) go to Brewers games, those counties don’t benefit from the sales tax generated inside the stadium like the state, City and County of Milwaukee do. In a sense, suburban attendees ARE helping pay for the stadium when they go to games and purchase a brat and beer because they are paying that sales tax.
We would note that the Republican plan ingeniously pays for its contribution by using income taxes generated by players. Those taxes would disappear if the team leaves. The Republican plan spread out the state contribution over multiple years. We retain this feature. Our state contribution is less, but it’s also paid with the jock tax plus rescinded museum money or just the jock tax if the museum money can’t be repealed.
The Republican plan goes to 2050. While nice, you can’t have it all. Our plan is closer to the VSG study’s term, and it matches Evers’ plan of going through 2043. We’re told that consultants can’t assess maintenance effectively beyond 20 years, and 20 years has a good ring to it.
We get that Assembly Speaker Robin Vos is a crafty negotiator; most good negotiators start with higher numbers than they are willing to settle for. However, it seems backwards, when negotiating with high-spending Democrats, to negotiate by starting HIGHER than them. We prefer an approach that starts LOWER than them. Let Evers and Democrats argue for more spending.
However, the WRN plan spends less money than BOTH Evers and the Republicans, which is more fiscally responsible at a time when regular folks are struggling to pay grocery bills.
According to a press release issued by Senator Dan Feyen and Representative Rob Brooks, “This state funding will come directly from the income tax generated within the stadium district. Unless you play for the Brewers or work in their front office, your tax dollars will not go to maintain the stadium.”
“It is cheaper for the taxpayers to keep the Milwaukee Brewers than to risk them leaving. This is a solid plan that will keep the Brewers in Milwaukee through 2050 and enables the stadium district to harness millions of dollars in revenue generated directly from the team’s activities, bolstering their ability to remain rooted in Wisconsin,” Vos said.
“This is ridiculous and indefensible public policy,” said economist J.C. Bradbury of Georgia’s Kennesaw State University. “Any elected representative who supports this should be voted out of office, if not recalled. Remember George Petak.”
Although we think Bradbury’s comment is hyperbolic, we would also note the likelihood that a new liberal Supreme Court will invalidate legislative elections, meaning Republican legislators will have to run again, perhaps with incumbents pitted against each other. We’d prefer they not have to do that with a $700 million vote hanging over their heads, especially outside southeastern Wisconsin, where it’s less understandable to voters.
Pope Francis closed out his summer by praising the Mongolian and Russian empires for their tolerance and humanity, before criticizing American Catholics for their backwardness and narrowness. No, you read that right the first time. He praised the horde of Genghis Khan and the imperialism of the Russian czars for their tolerance, then went on to criticize American Catholics for a sin he made up, called “indietrismo” — which means backward-looking. This from a man occupying an office whose occupants used to vow to shed blood if that’s what it meant to keep “inviolate the discipline and ritual of the church just as I found and received it handed down by my predecessors.”
Now, back in Rome, the pope is getting back to one of his favorite pastimes: rehabilitating a well-documented sex-pest because he has the right progressive friends in the curia. This time it’s Fr. Rupnik, a Jesuit and plainly terrible artist. Rupnik serially abused a group of nuns. The Vatican’s investigation into Rupnik and his religious center finished with a report — I kid you not — praising his confreres because, despite a media uproar, they “chose to maintain silence” and “to guard their hearts and not claim any irreproachability with which to stand as judges of others.” In other words, good job keeping the omertà and not being so judgmental about the sexual criminal in your midst.
All this is preparation for the ballyhooed “Synod on Synodality,” which is literally a conference of bishops dilating on the authority of conferences of bishops. The aim of the Synod, rather plainly, is for a large group of bishops to debate each other about survey material they guided some small number of lay Catholics through in their home diocese, and whether this pile of papers gives sufficient cover for the pope to begin chucking certain moral and dogmatic teachings of the church overboard in favor of newer understandings. It’s a truly strange exercise meant to obscure the pope’s role in changing the faith. Basically, he’s going to ask a bunch of bishops to write up a document showing that the church in general has come to a new understanding of itself.
It’s hard to unpack how much of a failure this already is. The very idea of a “Synod on Synodality” is like having a Meeting about Meetings. That uncomfortable guttural sound and hissing you are hearing from Rome is the ecclesial snake choking on its own tail. The pope’s constant comments on “backwardness” and condemnations of “ideology” are his attempt to get past the idea that the Catholic faith has real intellectual substance that has been defined, clarified, and distilled through the ages. This process whereby early scriptural and liturgical statements about the divinity of Jesus Christ, the nature of the Holy Spirit, and God the father are — over the centuries — expressed in new terms such as “the Holy Trinity” is what St. John Henry Newman called the “development of doctrine.” Newman had rules for distinguishing between true and false development, tracing all the way back to St. Vincent of Learns. “A true development is that which is conservative of its original,” Newman wrote, “and a corruption is that which tends to its destruction.” The law of non-contradiction applies.
But Pope Francis does not operate like this. He has already claimed to “develop” doctrine to make the idea of the death penalty, formally recognized as morally permissible by the church, into a sin. He did this by asserting that some new understanding of human dignity had come about in history. And this new understanding, combined with a series of ill-defined social observations and opinions that prisons were now sufficient to protect the public from criminals, made the death penalty morally impermissible.
There are several stunning things to notice in this. First, these assertions did not interact with or even pretend to engage the vast body of moral and theological reflection on this topic in church history. Secondly, these social assertions were themselves open to serious challenge. Had prisons really improved that much worldwide in just a few decades? Weren’t some criminals like El Chapo obviously able to command murderous criminal enterprises even while imprisoned? But most stunning of all was that the new teaching had no religious warrant whatsoever in Sacred Scripture, ecumenical councils, doctors of the church, the Christian faithful, or the Magisterium. Throughout history, the church’s self-understanding was as the guardian and interpreter of Divine Revelation — those mysteries that God disclosed by a special action in history. But in this revision of its moral doctrine, the church was asserting and hoping to demonstrate its competence to draw radical moral conclusions directly from its own reading of the present social conditions of humanity, apart from Revelation.
In the 19th century, when the Catholic Church was responding to the age of revolutions by asserting the infallibility of its teaching authority and the pope’s peculiar charism of infallibility, some critics worried that papal authority would begin to appear like a special bauble that occupants of the office could use to innovate. Newman was emphatic that papal infallibility was tied up intimately with the infallibility of the church as a whole, and that the power was largely a negative one, built for the purpose of condemning error. Certainly not for pioneering new truths.
But it’s quite clear these days that Pope Francis’s greatest fans want him to use papal authority to condemn moral, social, and liturgical traditionalists, and even to revise or significantly reform church teaching on the matters associated with moral and social traditionalists: the church’s ban on artificial contraception, its reservation of Holy Matrimony to men and women, its reservation of Holy Orders to men. The pope’s current head of the Congregation of the Doctrine of the Faith — the office formerly used to assist popes in guarding orthodoxy — now boldly talks about the “doctrine of the Holy Father” as if the personal moral enthusiasms of Pope Francis were binding on all Christians. They even sometimes talk of Christian duty to “the present Magisterium” of the church, rather than the “perennial” one.
But I have to warn them that the effort is self-defeating. A church of today that pretends to release us from the church of yesterday is a church that confesses its irrelevance. After all, it implies the existence of a church of the future, which can and may well be anything. The office of the papacy has — since the time of the Apostles — been charged with preservation and conservation, not innovation. That’s why its occupants used to take such blood-chilling oaths promising fidelity to what was handed to them. The attempt to use it for other purposes will only damage the office. In fact, that is precisely all that Pope Francis has accomplished. The papal cult that continued to grow from the first Vatican Council and reached its zenith under John Paul II has come crashing down. It has a lot further to fall.
Britain’s number one song today in 1964:
Today in 1967, a few days after their first and last appearance on CBS-TV’s “Ed Sullivan Show,” the Doors appeared on the Murray the K show on WPIX-TV in New York:
Today in 1969, ABC-TV premiered “Music Scene” against CBS-TV’s “Gunsmoke” and NBC-TV’s “Laugh-In”:
“We’re taking advantage of the fact that we have moved quickly to move a little more carefully now,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told a gaggle of reporters yesterday in reference to the Fed’s decision not to hike interest rates further. Rates are currently hovering at 5.25–5.5 percent, and the Federal Reserve has, for the past 18 months, been aggressive with raising them in an attempt to cool runaway inflation.
But yesterday, the Associated Press reported that “the 19 members of the Fed’s rate-setting committee conveyed growing optimism that they will manage to slow inflation to their 2% target without causing the deep recession that many economists had feared” (also called a “soft landing”). Powell and the rest of the rate-setting committee did note that rate hikes are still absolutely possible as the year progresses, but that the current state of inflation coupled with low unemployment and strong economic growth means there’s reason for optimism that inflation will cool back down to their target by 2026. “Fed officials now expect their benchmark rate to be at 5.1% by the end of next year, according to their median estimate, up from 4.6% in the last projection round in June,” according to Bloomberg. Basically, it’s shaping up to look like interest rates won’t be hiked higher, but that inflation will likely be around longer than many had previously predicted.
Though this is decent news, remember that President Joe Biden spent much of July trying to convince American voters that he was God’s gift to (working) man via his “Bidenomics” speeches, in which he touted his role in raising pay for low-wage workers while decrying trickle-down economics and taking responsibility for having personally restored the “American dream.” Pretty rich given that my grocery store now charges $8 for a gallon of milk (New York City, baby), that the prices of eggs and meat have gone sky-high, and that plenty of people have deferred home-buying decisions, unable to hack it given the high mortgage rates and large monthly payments that result. If I were him, I would simply not try to act like the economy has flourished under my watch, and demonstrate a bit more humility with regard to how multiple years of high inflation harms both Americans’ budgets and long-term plans and is connected to reckless government spending.
George Gilder and Richard Vigilante:
The China Hawks may be getting their wish.
They are on track to see what the world looks like with China poor, backwards, and communist.
The Chinese economy is at even greater risk than the headlines suggest. Western analysts are missing the gravity of the collapse because, just as in their analysis of the U.S. economy, they vastly overestimate the power of monetary policy and government stimulus to affect growth. And they vastly underestimate the true source of economic growth, the freedom of entrepreneurs to create the upside surprises that drive progress.
The financial media are obsessed with two almost irrelevant questions.
The first is the effects of China’s supposed real estate bubble popping.
The second is whether Chairman Xi will do enough to stimulate the economy by opening the monetary floodgates or by giving consumers more yuan to spend. The Wall Street Journal notes that monetary loosening so far has done little to revive the economy and laments that Xi stubbornly refuses to spread cash via social programs on the grounds that this would be “welfarism.”
Mainstream analysis of the Chinese economy goes wrong for the same reason its analysis of the US economy has gone so badly wrong.
The great lesson from Ronald Reagan’s restoration of the American economy is that what economists misleadingly call fiscal policy always trumps monetary policy.
Monetary policy can provide one background condition for economic growth, stable prices.
What is called fiscal policy really comes down to how much freedom the government allows private businesses to allocate capital and innovate new products, services, and production methods.
The Reagan tax cuts, viewed conventionally as just another form of monetary stimulus, were effective primarily because they freed investors and entrepreneurs to allocate capital into productive investment. Even the tightening monetary policy of the Fed under Paul Volcker, to the extent it restored price stability, had as its primary effect improving capital allocation.
In the 1970s, with inflation running into double digits and capital gains taxes as high as 35 percent (confiscatory when adjusted for the inflated dollar), real, after tax returns on investment turned negative. Investors preferred accumulating Renoirs and real estate to investing in new enterprises. The Reagan reforms released a flood of capital out of inflation hedges and into the productive economy.
Also crucial were 30 years of relative regulatory restraint starting under President Carter and continuing until the Obama administration, increasing the freedom of entrepreneurs to energize the economy.
What ails the US economy today is not primarily bad monetary policy, neither Fed laxity from 2008 through 2021, nor the tightening since then. Driving slow growth and rising prices are drastic government-imposed inefficiencies especially in the energy and labor markets: too little energy produced and too many Americans still out of the job market. The devastation of the auto industry by mandates and subsidies for electric vehicles is just the latest wound.
As with establishment reaction to Reagan, the confusion about China’s current problems begins with misunderstanding its prior success. The China Hawks credit the fantastic expansion of the Chinese economy since 1978 to clever Chinese central planning. Bizarrely they imagine that for once, against all precedent and logic, socialism worked. Missing the true source of Chinese prosperity, they now miss the source of its decline.
The real story of Chinese decline is socialist revanchism starting at least a decade ago under Chairman Xi. Chinese state-owned enterprises that had shriveled in previous decades have been massively refunded and subsidized by the Chinese government. According to China-watching economist Nicholas Lardy the effect was to pull China’s national average return on capital down into the low single digits.
Even this, however, was not enough to stall the Chinese economy. Most governments of approximately capitalist nations similarly waste massive amounts of capital, c.f. wind farms and solar farms and trillions in green subsidies of all sorts, not to mention the CHIPs bill, or ethanol, or ….
These inflict grave harm on the economy by diverting entrepreneurial creativity into the destruction of wealth. But if genuine entrepreneurs and the free economy can get the capital they need, they typically more than compensate for government waste. As Yasheng Huang documented 15 years ago in his great work Capitalism With Chinese Characteristics, the explosive growth of the Chinese economy was driven by the relatively small portion of Chinese businesses most free of government control: smallish rural enterprises and foreign controlled companies operating in China.
As Huang, Lardy, and Nobel Prize winner Ronald Coase among others have shown, it was the unplanned, often extralegal liberation of farmers far from Beijing’s clenched fist that first reinvigorated the Chinese economy. As agricultural productivity increased exponentially, fewer farm laborers were needed. Local prosperity and excess labor spawned tens of thousands, then millions of town and village enterprises, officially “owned” by local governments but actually controlled by local entrepreneurs.
These enterprises were financed in part by informal intermediaries that grew into a “shadow” banking system loathed by the Xi regime as beyond its control. The most visible became Jack Ma’s Ant Financial, which used advanced credit rating algorithms to make millions of sound micro-loans to Chinese businesses and consumers.
In November 2020 Xi shut down Ant’s planned IPO and forced a restructuring that blunted its entrepreneurial style. That was only the most well-publicized attack on the shadow banks, which have been largely neutralized. Though we have no reliable data on the impact on small Chinese businesses the constriction of the shadow sector bodes ill.
The other great source of Chinese economic growth was foreign controlled firms. Foreign Direct Investment is credited even by establishment economists for aiding China’s growth. Its sudden decline amidst US China tensions is always listed as a worrying point by established analysts.
Here again they largely miss the point. As the massive renewed subsidies to state-owned enterprises show, China was not short on capital. It was short on freedom.
As Huang shows, foreign controlled or financed firms disproportionately contributed to China’s prosperity because they were largely exempt from the government interference and corruption that plague most indigenous firms. The importance of this freedom of operation was largely missed, says Huang, because western China watchers vastly overestimated the number of large Chinese enterprises that were actually free from government control.
Formerly state-owned enterprises that were allowed to “go public” and sell shares were often counted by observers as part of China’s private, free economy. In reality, as with public companies in the West, management remained in charge. In these Chinese firms management means the government.
When foreign investors flee China, the capital they take with them is the smallest loss. The real loss is freedom.
If the real estate bubble pops, it will not be because money had been too loose but because the growth needed to sustain that investment didn’t happen. The people who would have made it happen have been driven away.
The China so hated by the Hawks is imploding. The socialists the Hawks pretended were always in charge have returned with a vengeance. If they are not stopped China and its shrinking population will head back toward poverty and insignificance. The immediate result may be to tip the globe into recession. The long-term results of losing a billion of the most enterprising people on earth back to socialism will be worse.here.
Labor unions are having a moment. That moment features wins for the Teamsters against UPS, unionized pilots against airlines, a movie industry strike, and a historic strike against the Big Three carmakers.
This is massive news for the self-described “most pro-union president“—but more for its awkwardness than for the resurgence of organized labor. The strikes are partially motivated by inflation under the Biden administration, auto workers worry about the destruction of jobs threatened by the White House’s push for electric vehicles, labor actions threaten the Democratic Party’s gains with corporate America, and the president finds himself vying for union support with his populist predecessor.
In other words, it’s an appropriately chaotic moment for modern America.
“UAW President Shawn Fain announced today that the union’s strike authorization vote passed with near universal approval from the 150,000 union workers at Ford, General Motors and Stellantis,” according to an August 25 United Auto Workers press release. “The union’s demands include the elimination of tiered wages and benefits, wage increases to offset inflation and match the generous salary increases of company executives over the last four years.”
The UAW’s concern with, in part, wages eroded by the declining value of the dollar echoes that of other unions that complain of losing ground under high inflation. That’s inconvenient for a president who touts his pro-labor credentials but who also presided over that period of pinched budgets and is blamed for the situation by the majority of Americans.
“Forty-three percent of respondents said that Biden and his policies were significantly to blame for inflation, while 18 percent said the president was fairly to blame and 17 percent said he and his policies were slightly to blame, a Newsweek/Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll found last November.
Worse for the Biden administration, even as it portrays itself as pro-union, it also paints itself green. That includes promoting electric vehicles and committing to end the federal government’s purchase of cars with internal combustion engines by 2035. That poses big problems for the labor part of organized labor.
“The talks are about more than pay,” Jack Ewing noted for The New York Times. “Workers are trying to defend jobs as manufacturing shifts from internal combustion engines to batteries. Because they have fewer parts, electric cars can be made with fewer workers than gasoline vehicles.”
“The president is in a really tough position,” Erik Gordon, a professor at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business, told Fortune. “What he needs to be the most pro-labor president ever and the greenest president ever is a magic wand.”
With such big challenges as inflation and disappearing jobs, the UAW is responding with equally big demands. The union scaled back its asks of Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis—but still wants a 40 percent pay raise over four years. That, a four-day work week, and a other eye-popping demands including spendy defined-benefit pensions round out the list. That’s actually in line with what other unions have won for their members.
Labor unions are, indeed, having a moment. Unsurprisingly, employers aren’t thrilled.
“The UAW strike and indeed the ‘summer of strikes’ is the natural result of the Biden administration’s ‘whole of government’ approach to promoting unionization at all costs,” U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Suzanne P. Clark protested last week. “For the 94% of American private sector workers not in a union, the costs are starting to stack up – from increasing consumer costs – now for new cars – to sudden loss in business for those in related industries like auto suppliers, restaurants and caterers whose customers are now on strike.”
This is a problem for the Biden administration and its political allies given that corporate America has been drifting away from its traditional alliance with the GOP. The populist drift of the Republican Party under Donald Trump, growing emphasis on cultural issues, and the former president’s unpredictable cult of personality created an opening for Democrats.
“The ongoing development of the Democratic Party as a party not of labor but of socioeconomic elites, and the ongoing development of the Republican Party as a party not of business but of working class social conservatives represents a major, perhaps the major, American political development of the twenty-first century,” according to a recent paper by Tufts University’s Eitan Hersh and the University of California at Berkeley’s Sarang Shah.
But big business flirtation with Democrats may not survive a cold-water dousing from an administration “promoting unionization at all costs.” Existential threats can outweigh loose new alliances.
That’s not to say corporate America will return to the Republican fold. Trump, after all, is courting UAW support and plans to visit Michigan picket lines instead of debating rivals for the Republican nomination. He’s emphasizing workers’ fears of job losses as a result of the push for electric vehicles, and of the potential rise of Chinese manufacturers. If business executives are feeling a little disenfranchised right now, they can join the club.
It’s important to emphasize that potential perils for the Biden administration in these labor actions are extensions of pain imposed by government. While union pay demands are big, they result from the damage to paychecks caused by the dollar’s eroding purchasing power, courtesy of government policies. Union demands for the security of defined-benefit pensions and a revived right to strike over plant closures respond to disruptive policies that seek to force transformation of the U.S. economy along green lines. You can’t use the power of the state to remake a country without scaring the hell out of a lot of people and driving them to seek stability.
Ultimately, the UAW is likely fighting a losing cause. Even without government pressure, the auto industry is changing. Automation and the migration of car production to states where workers often vote against labor unions means vehicle production in the future will look different than it does today. Raising costs for the Big Three will accelerate that process.
But Biden’s efforts to forcibly reshape the economy in ways that he and his allies prefer, rather than the direction market forces would take it, makes him the obvious person to blame for resulting pain. “The brewing fear among Democrats is that it won’t just complicate his labor credentials, it could slow the implementation of his green industrial agenda and the broader economic growth around which he’s basing his case for reelection,” reports Politico.
That means political risk for a president who gambled on revived organized labor power. More importantly, though, it means chaos and economic uncertainty for regular Americans.