Jeff Childers:

We are already winning.

Think about it. No new virus was unleashed to justify new lockdowns and make election cheating easier. China did not invade Taiwan last night. Israel did not attack Iran (or vice-versa). Teams of border-jumping terrorists did not create martial law conditions by attacking in concert yesterday. There was no third assassination attempt (excluding character assassination).

In terms of extreme scenarios, things have been perfectly normal. We are far ahead of where many feared we would be on this propitious morning, damp with historicity and possibility. We should be thankful for that.

I used the word “normal,” of course, cautiously and in a relative sense.

 Election Day shares the same acronym with Erectile Dysfunction, an awkward condition that one half of the country will be experiencing this time tomorrow. Early signs suggest it will be the party whose men, according to scientific studies, widely suffer from low testosterone. (Which, in turn, may be related to all that mail-order estrogen they’re taking. But I digress.)

This election cycle has shattered records and made every previous election look like a boring nature docuseries on a streaming channel you never heard of, like “North Ireland Network.” We’ve watched a presidential candidate raided by the FBI, sued, criminally charged, arrested, mugshotted, prosecuted, and convicted. Never happened before.

We’ve watched a presidential candidate shot on live coverage and get up and shake it off. Never happened before. We’ve seen massive Secret Service cockups and diminutive agents unable to reholster their weapons. That was new. We’ve seen Democrats and media unite in calling the Republican candidate “literally Hitler.”

Oh wait, that one happens every time. Sorry. Erase.

Maybe more astonishing, after the catastrophic and depressing 2020 loss, we’ve seen President Trump miraculously rebuild a level of excitement and enthusiasm trumping the last cycle’s record conservative groundswell and completely extinguishing the Never Trump movement.

 Things look good. The official story remains that the polls are “neck and neck.” It’s too close to call. I don’t believe it. I’ll give you four good reasons why you should ignore the polls even more so than normal.

First, because the irresponsible media somehow lost all the technology to conduct exit polling. They think they left their exit polling equipment at their friend’s house after a Minecraft party; we’re not sure yet. Media has also developed amnesia about ever having used exit polling before. They never even mention it. Maybe their memory loss occurred after a sudden blow to the head, or possibly a bad mushroom trip.

Second, foreigners don’t seem to be anywhere near as confused about the presidential odds as are the always-lying U.S. media. An Eastern Indian political commentator who regularly writes for FirstPost ran a column yesterday headlined, “Too close to call? No, expect a clear winner in US elections.”

It’s a solid recap article if you’re looking for one this morning. Read the whole thing. In short, I agree with all the author’s reasoning, especially this paragraph:

It’s a tossup which U.S. institution has become least trusted: the media or the expert class. It’s kind of like deciding which couple you’d prefer to babysit your toddler in an emergency: a recently released drug dealer who just did a 2-year stint for aggravated assault along with his girlfriend who runs a successful OnlyFans franchise, or Nancy and Paul Pelosi? See what I mean?

The third factor is PolyMarket. PolyMarket is a worldwide sports betting site with over three billion dollars of private money now invested in the outcome of the U.S. presidential race. By contrast, a media survey, where respondents have no reason to tell pollsters the truth, might include up to 1,200 people sampled. But the PolyMarket presidential market is vastly larger. It includes hundreds of thousands of folks all having personal stakes in the outcome.

With over three billion invested, it would be nearly impossible to manipulate the PolyMarket.

Polymarket reports Trump’s chances at +62%, well above Kamala’s 38%, making a solid +24% advantage for Trump …

Fourth and finally, we have more reliable numbers from Florida, which are admittedly early, from a (newly) solid red state, but are nevertheless very encouraging.

I’m quoting from Florida Politics’ often engaging but decidedly leftwing Sunburn column, this morning’s edition. First, note that the Trump campaign’s internal numbers aren’t merely reassuring, but like the FirstPost columnist, the campaign suspects it might not even be close. It still could be a landslide:

Not only that, but even the “official polls” are frightening corporate media analysts. It may be too big to rig:

Even worse for Democrats, turnout among their two most important constituencies —women and urban voters— is down across all seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In four of those states, the rural vote has surged past 2020 numbers without looking back.

So there are four solid reasons to think it won’t be a drawn-out, weekslong nail-biter like last time. And those are just the best four factors. There are plenty of other hopeful signs around the margins. I’ll give you a couple examples.

Florida’s voting figures also offer some encouragement. For comparison, back in 2020, Florida went for Trump +3%. This time, all signs suggest that Florida will double or triple that lead. (And we’ll have our votes counted before midnight, so.)

Yesterday’s GOP internal memo claimed an R+20 advantage in early vote totals, with over a million more Republicans casting a ballot in-person than Democrats. Dems held a +200K advantage in mail-in ballots but Republicans are still up +900K overall.

So far, early voting has increased +11% over 2020’s healthy levels. And worst of all for Florida Democrats, 800,000 Republican likely voters have yet to cast their ballots versus only 600,000 likely blue voters.

If that enthusiasm gap holds nationwide, it could be a landslide for Trump.