• Obama vs. minority Republicans (and therefore America)

    June 19, 2023
    US politics

    Noah Rothman:

    The notion that, through persistence, personal agency, and dedication, the remaining vestiges of institutional racial discrimination in America are obstacles that its minority citizens can overcome is one to which the nation’s first black president objects.

    “There’s a long history of African-American or other minority candidates within the Republican Party who will validate America and say, ‘Everything’s great, and we can make it,’” said Barack Obama, in an interview with his 2008 campaign manager and CNN personality David Axelrod. The former president of the United States singled out Senator Tim Scott and, to a lesser degree, Nikki Haley for failing to qualify their sanguine assessment of the opportunity America provides its ethnic minorities with “an honest accounting of our past and our present.”

    It’s worth dwelling on Obama’s objection to sentiments that, perish the thought, “validate America.” In his apparent estimation, such sentiments represent an ugly untruth. This slip is revealing of a disposition to which Obama was inclined during his years in the spotlight — one his critics often highlighted and his defenders insisted was a figment of their overactive and racially suspect imaginations. To wit: Obama’s casual disdain for the nation that twice elected him to its highest office.

    In Barack Obama’s telling, America’s story is a morality play in which he assumes a central role. The 44th president’s ascension represented the crest of the country’s redemptive arc — a deliverance the nation then rejected as it descended back into irredeemable iniquity with his departure from the national stage. His patriotism seems only ever to have been conditional, and those conditions were rather personal.

    When a majority of its citizens ratify his will, the country of his birth is “generous,” “compassionate,” “tolerant,” and “great.” When it suits his interests, America’s history of racial animus is surmountable, and “anger” over that history “distracts attention from solving real problems.” When he’s feeling less politically constrained, Americans are selfish and bitter. Their country is arrogant and dismissive. Its minorities should consider distinct demographics within the national tapestry as “enemies.”

    The former president has a habit of accusing his opponents of being “unpatriotic” and “un-American,” but his highly contingent patriotism is suggestive of deep discomfort with the nation as it exists. It is telling that these two Republican presidential aspirants, in particular, have induced the reemergence of one of his most unlovely traits. It’s even more revealing that Obama feels compelled to distort their records and views to make the point that only those who share his skepticism can objectively assess the nation’s racial past and present.

    “If that candidate is not willing to acknowledge that, again and again, we’ve seen discrimination in everything,” Obama continued, from “getting a job to buying a house to how the criminal justice system operates,” that somehow represents a rejection of the idea that “we need to do something about” the consequences of “hundreds of years of racism in this society.”

    Tim Scott objected to Obama’s cheap strawman — one that perhaps reflected the former president’s admitted ignorance of Scott’s actual views. After all, the former president hadn’t “spent a lot of time studying Tim Scott’s speeches.”

    “The truth of my life disproves the lies of the radical left,” Scott replied. That is consistent with the message Scott articulates in the speeches Obama couldn’t be bothered to peruse before critiquing them. The senator has not shied away from acknowledging the racism he and his family experienced in the deep South, noting that his family “went from cotton to Congress” in the space of his grandfather’s lifetime. Haley, too, rejected Obama’s effort to single out minorities as “victims instead of empowering them.”

    The former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina governor has also described her ascent from the “isolation” she experienced as a dark-skinned girl in the birthplace of the Confederacy to the state’s highest office. Neither candidate has said, “Everything’s great.” They have said their experience attests that American minorities can navigate the nation’s casteless ranks without having their hands held by benevolent liberal sherpas. That reality — not some contemptuous caricature of their view that racial impediments do not exist — threatens Obama and the New York Times alike.

    “I’m not being cynical about Tim Scott individually, but I am maybe suggesting the rhetoric of ‘Can’t we all get along,’” Obama concluded, while modifying some of his own hopeful rhetoric about the country. “That has to be undergirded with an honest accounting of our past and our present.” But Obama is not seeking honesty. If he were, he wouldn’t be attacking the experience of these — and, by reasonable extension, all — Republicans of minority extraction as unwitting victims of the false consciousness to which Obama seems to believe those who don’t subscribe to a persecution complex are prone.

    Barack Obama once described the “promise of America” in collectivist terms. It was to him “the fundamental belief that I am my brother’s keeper; I am my sister’s keeper.” The conservative rejoinder to this infantilizing conception of the American compact promotes individual excellence: the unfettered talents of the mind and soul, the full expression of which invariably benefits all. Neither Obama nor the targets of his criticism reject that idea per se, but Obama emphasizes the obstacles and languishes in fatalism, while the objects of his criticism emphasize resiliency and celebrate optimism. That’s a profound distinction and an illuminating one.

    Someone should remind the nation’s first mixed-race president on Juneteenth Day that (1) slavery is an institution as old as civilization itself, carried out by non-white ancestors of Obama’s, but (2) civilized countries got rid of slavery, (3) including this country, at the cost of 360,000 Union Army soldiers, 12,000 of whom were from Wisconsin.

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  • Presty the DJ for June 19

    June 19, 2023
    Music

    Nothing but birthdays today, beginning with Tommy DeVito of the Four Seasons:

    (more…)

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  • Presty the DJ for June 18

    June 18, 2023
    Music

    Today in 1967 was the Monterey International Pop Festival:

    Happy birthday first to Paul McCartney:

    (more…)

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  • Presty the DJ for June 17

    June 17, 2023
    Music

    The number five song today in 1967 …

    … was 27 spots higher than this song reached in 1978:

    Birthdays start with Jerry Fielding, who composed the theme music to …

    (more…)

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  • To be a father, you must first be a man

    June 16, 2023
    Culture, Parenthood/family

    Aaron Renn:

    Sen. Josh Hawley has a new book out called Manhood: The Masculine Virtues America Needs. It’s a combination of a manhood book and a politics book. He frames it as a battle between a biblical view of manhood and an “Epicurean” one that he associates with leftism. In the balance of this battle is the future of the American Experiment. Thus Hawley presents a smaller battle – right vs. left – as an echo of a larger one – the Bible vs. Epicurus. By beating back leftism today, one is not just winning a contemporary political struggle, but striking a blow in a cosmic struggle.

    Manhood is divided into two parts. The first is an overview of manhood drawn from an mythic interpretation of Genesis. I use the term mythic here in a positive sense as referring to primal truths, not in a negative one that the story isn’t true. The second is a series of chapters on archetypal roles men are supposed to play: Husband, Father, Warrior, Builder, Priest, and King. These echo the well known book King, Warrior, Magician, Lover: Rediscovering the Archetypes of the Mature Masculine. His use of a mythic and archetypal framing – for example, his description of creation as about chaos and order – is clearly influenced by Jordan Peterson.

    I have not listened to Jordan Peterson’s lectures on Genesis, but clearly the way he talks about the world resonates strongly with young men today. So it makes sense for Hawley draw on that kind of rhetorical pattern in framing his arguments. I actually found his takes on Genesis interesting. Some of it was standard stuff, other parts of it were described in ways I have not observed in church. For example, he says:

    Look closely. In the Genesis story, Eden is the only place of order and flourishing the Bible describes. It is the only park, the only garden, the only outpost of peace. When we learn anything of the land beyond Eden’s borders, it appears untamed, wild. Dark forces lurk there. A sly and wicked serpent will enter the story a chapter later in Genesis, and from where? Beyond the garden’s edge. That place, the place beyond, looms as a site of potential development, yes—God has made it and brought it forth from the deep—but also of darkness and disorder. It is, as yet, unfinished. Adam’s job is to help finish it, to bring it into order. His job is to expand the garden temple…The earth beyond the garden may be unkept, there may be malevolence there in some form, but Genesis insists God created even this world and called it good. It is not desolate; it is merely unfinished. It will respond to man’s work. And Adam is to work it. His effort will bring forth the hidden purposes of the world.

    My interest here is not a theological appraisal, but rather how Hawley frames creation and man’s role in it, as a sort of avatar of God assigned to “bring forth the hidden purposes of the world.” This strikes me as relating to a sort of heroic quest for secret knowledge. It involves, like the hero’s journey, a process of personal transformation. He writes, “The Bible offers a purpose that summons each man, a purpose that will transform him. A man cannot stay as he is, not if he is to take on the mission of manhood.”

    My take is that the goal with this is to create a vision of manhood linked to some noble, transcendent purpose. I have noted before that Christian teachers and other often present manhood about little more than self-sacrifice. There’s plenty of that in Hawley’s book to be sure, but he’s trying to present the masculine quest as something ennobling as well.

    He also differs from many in treating men as ends and not just means. Like Peterson, he says that they matter.

    Genesis encourages every man who struggles to see the point of his life, who feels that his work is a waste, or who wonders whether he will amount to anything to think again. Your work matters. Your life matters. Your character matters. You can help the world become what it was meant to be. And that is no small thing.

    There is an element here of seeing men as a existing for something else (versus having value in the own right), but unlike, say, Mark Driscoll’s presentation of manhood as a life of joyless toil, this is presented as something more aspirational – putting the world in order – and more in the line of “we really need you on the team.” I see this as a significant improvement over the standard conservative line towards men.

    Also very notable is his description of the King archetype, where he explicitly affirms the goodness of men exercising authority:

    It is good for a man to exercise authority—good for him and for those around him, provided he does it well. It is good that a man show ambition, that he aim to do something useful with his life….To young men, we should send a clear message: Dominion is good, and you should exercise it. Aim to do something with your life. Aim to exercise some leadership. Aim to accept responsibility for yourself—and others. Aim to have the character of a king.

    This is also refreshingly contrary to the standard conservative line.

    And, interestingly, he rejects Richard Reeves proposal to encourage men to go into the caring professions and live in more stereotypical female ways. He says, “To the experts safely ensconced in their think tanks, I would just say this: Is it really too much to ask that our economy work for men as they are, rather than as the left wants them to be?” While it’s unlikely mass highly paid blue collar employment will reemerge in the way Hawley hopes, rejecting the idea reprogramming of men to be more like women is a positive.

    While Hawley’s book is an advance over the standard conservative a Christian fare in some areas, it still has some significant issues.

    The first and biggest is that it is written with essentially gender egalitarian, that is to say feminist, assumptions. This isn’t explicitly stated, but is made clear in a number of ways. The first is his use of the two separate archetypes of Husband and Father, rather than the integrated Patriarch archetype. We also see it in his treatment of covenant. He says that, “A covenant in the ancient world was an agreement between a partner of high status and a servant.” He rejects this for the marriage covenant though, saying, “For a marriage, too, is a covenant—a promise made and a vow taken, only in this case, between equals.” This is one of many areas of the book that cried out for an explanation with none forthcoming. (My point here is not to make my own argument about the nature of covenant or marriage, but to point out the weird and unexplained exception for marriage Hawley carves out in his treatment of covenant).

    But most notably, we see the egalitarian stance in the treatment of the Husband and King archetypes. The Husband is supposed to make vow, endure, protect and provide. But nowhere does he discuss any concept of the Husband having headship or exercising leadership, not even of the evangelical “servant leadership” variety. (Hawley is an evangelical presbyterian). And while he praises the use of authority by the King archetype, he never situates this in a familial context.

    Hawley affirms gender complementarity and a gender binary, but this is similar to evangelical egalitarianism, which talks about “complementarity without hierarchy.” He does speak about “traditional gender roles” but his application of them is thin, limited to things like different occupational types (as above), but pointedly not to men as head of the home. It’s possible he personally adheres to a complementarian gender theology – I don’t know – but if so he does not put it into this book. Tellingly, a critical review in the Washington Post notes the egalitarian flourishes in the book.

    This egalitarian stance is important because it fundamentally undermines the entire argument of his book. Hawley is trying to go back to Genesis to define manhood as something ancient, eternal, and designed by God into the fabric of the world. At the same time, he wants to adopt gender egalitarianism for husband-wife relationships, something that’s only around 50-70 years old and a view that, dare I saw it, is of the Epicurean variety.

    Thus Hawley is similar to other conservatives in adopting the “two sets of books” approach. Men are supposed to live up to the old set of books in terms of what is expected to them. But women are allowed to live by a new set of books that frees them from their old obligations – and men are supposed to be ok with this. This is nothing but a recipe for being a chump. It’s like the Jim Geraghty video for PragerU in which he urges men to act more like Ward Cleaver, the dad from the 1950s TV sitcom “Leave It to Beaver.” But Geraghty would never dream of telling women to act like June Cleaver, the wife and mother from that TV show.

    This is one of the basic challenges with society today. It demands that men continue to fulfill the traditional obligations of manhood such as self-sacrifice, provisioning for others, etc. while giving up all the power, privileges, honors, and prestige they previously enjoyed – and freeing women completely from their previous traditional obligations.

    That is essentially what a book about masculine virtues written from a de facto gender egalitarian position amounts to.

    You can say that men, women, and society should live by the old rules. You can say the men, women, and society should live by new rules. But it’s ridiculous to demand that men live by the old rules (when it comes to obligations at least), while women and the rest of society live by new ones.

    Some of the negatives trends in American men that Hawley identifies are a result of bad actions and bad character on the part of men. But some of them are a result of men rationally refusing to play to this mug’s game. As Helen Smith one put it, some men are going on strike.

    Hawley recognizes this effect in some domains like economics, hence his call to rebuild a viable blue collar economy. But he doesn’t recognize it in areas like marriage, where we’ve institutionalized the “Epicurean” position with things like no-fault divorce, with women being the ones filing for it 70% of the time. That doesn’t factor into his analysis of marriage rates or fatherlessness at all. It’s deeply unfair to the men who wanted to be present at home with their children, but aren’t because their wives divorced them without just cause and got custody of the kids.

    The book also oddly argues against the pursuit of status. Hawley writes:

    There is not a man alive, not a human being drawing breath on this vast earth, who does not crave status. It is what the Bible calls the pride of life. Practically the whole of modern living is geared around it. Universities promise higher status; advertising sells consumer goods as status symbols; even entertainment has become a form of status. And you can spend your life seeking after it, thirsting and lusting for it—or you can live for something other than you. But you cannot do both. Either you live for status—which is living for you—or you sacrifice that life, that entire way of life, for something better.

    Elsewhere he writes, “Sacrifice your pride. Give up the quest for status.” I say this is odd because the book is positive towards the exercise of power. He says the exercise of authority is good, ambition is good, dominion is good. Power and status aren’t the same things, but they overlap a lot. And in our society it’s frequently necessary to play status games to acquire authority. Status is also intimately linked to our ability to succeed at the basics of manhood that Hawley encourages, such as getting married. As Jordan Peterson points out, “Girls are attracted to boys that win status competitions with other boys.” A man devoid of status is unlikely to marry in our society. He will probably end up as an “incel” (involuntary celibate).

    Hawley himself has obvious pursued status – and very successfully. He went to Stanford and then Yale Law School, arguably the country’s most prestigious. He won a highly competitive Supreme Court clerkship. Now he is a US Senator. And good for him that he did this. There’s nothing wrong with that. Had he not sought out status markers like a Supreme Court clerkship, he would never have found himself in the position to exercise authority that he has today. He also wouldn’t have met, much less married his wife, who is a high powered attorney in her own right.

    Unfortunately, there are a lot of oddities and seeming contradictions of this variety in the book.

    Finally, I will note that the book is written in a style multiple grade levels below Jordan Peterson’s 12 Rules for Life. I’m not sure why that is, as he’s obviously capable of very good writing and Peterson proves men will devour higher level material. (I would personally have liked to have read a book that was not political, and gave free range to Hawley’s intellect).

    Also, unlike with Jordan Peterson, there’s little practical, actionable advice. Manhood has the grand vision of masculinity, but not the guide for how to get there. I didn’t come away from the book with anything I could change practically to become a better man.

    The genius of Jordan Peterson was packaging folk wisdom in elevated rhetoric. He gave the grand vision of the cosmos and manhood, but he also gave men news they can use (e.g., to attract women, you need status), and very practical steps like “Stand up straight with your shoulders back” and “Clean your room, bucko.” What makes these so effective is that they work metaphorically, but also practically. If you don’t know how to put your life in order, you really can start by just physically cleaning your room. Even taken naïvely, they still work.

    Because Hawley’s book lacks this, it can ultimately come across as just another call to “Man up!” The book’s flaws probably also explain why he has not developed an organic following as a men’s guru. (His speech at TPUSA, for example, was to an audience someone else convened).

    But I think the positive takeaway from Manhood is the way that it tries to advance the masculinity discussion in a better direction from a conservative perspective. It tries to learn from Jordan Peterson in terms of trying to frame manhood in a transcendent way as something aspirational. It treats men as having real value in themelves. And it treats men exercising authority in an appropriate way as good and proper. All of these needs to be carried forward into future conservative works on the topic of manhood.

    Two comments on the piece:

    One thing I have found to be profoundly missing from all of these types of modern books on masculinity is the absence of the very thing I’ve always associated with its very essence: arete or excellence. I haven’t read the book, so perhaps Hawley discusses it and it didn’t make it into the review. But arete is the male urge to be the best, the rational ordering of thymotic competitive drives. Rather than competing with others, however, it is the competition with the ideal which drives men to seek perfection. It’s my great-grandfather saying “A quarter inch off is still off. Do it again.”

    Social status is socially constructed, for the most part, but arete confers a status that bypasses the taste-makers of society. “Hey ya’ll, watch this” doesn’t need to be anything of value in society, but it earns respect nonetheless if nobody can replicate it. When it is something valuable, the taste-makers of society are completely disarmed, and must bow to the natural superiority of the man of excellence, regardless of their desires. Consider the number of people who are by-and-large despised by our current elites but grudgingly granted status because of their irreplaceability and excellence.

    This is the problem with some of the neo-masculinists today – they aren’t doing anything that can’t be replicated by anyone else. Sleep around with cheap women? Buy cars and clothes? They get their brief moment, but then disappear because literally anyone can replicate that if they’re willing to make the same sacrifices. “Hey ya’ll, watch this! I’ll make a basket from the free-throw line.” Same thing with the “man up” crowd. There’s no excellence in letting people walk on your face or doing thankless work for the benefit of people who despise and exploit you. It’s just embarrassing. Shake the dust off your sandals, bro, and walk away.

    I hate to think in Machiavellian terms (/s is necessary here?), but elites need compliant, dutiful serfs to pull the plow, accept their exploitation, and turn over the fruits of their labors to the masters, in order to retain their elite status. There is nothing the elite hate more than a body of freemen who practice excellence in all things, especially political organization. Which makes me wonder about the intentions of a U.S. Senator who tells men to “man up,” take on a greater burden, and save the poor elites at risk of losing their cushy positions to rising social and political disorder.

    I would add that many of the good outcomes in life come as a side effect of “doing the right thing.” When people focus on achieving the side effect directly, they often fail.

    In this case, pursue excellence for its inherent value, and as a side effect you will get respect, status, women will be attracted to you, etc. Pursue those side effects directly and you will be likely to go astray.

    “The pursuit of happiness” is similarly misguided. Do the right thing, find your place in God’s order, live a life that you can be convicted is pleasing to God, and happiness follows. Most of the self-help books that consist of anything else (navel gazing, dealing with your problems and your imperfect childhood and your baggage from the past, etc.) are worse than worthless. Go find a positive way to live; don’t “pursue happiness.”

    Ditto for all the young men and women ruing their loneliness. Pursue excellence as a human being, become more interesting and attractive to the opposite sex as a side effect. The Manosphere/Game direct approaches are a sham by comparison.

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  • Presty the DJ for June 16

    June 16, 2023
    Music

    Dueling ex-Beatles today: In 1978, one year after the play “Beatlemania” opened on Broadway …

    … Ringo Starr released his “Bad Boy” album …

    … while Paul McCartney and Wings released “I’ve Had Enough”:

    The number six song one year later (with no known connection to Mr. Spock):

    Stop! for the number eight single today in 1990 …

    … which bears an interesting resemblance to an earlier song:

    Put the two together, and you get …

    (more…)

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  • Presty the DJ for June 15

    June 15, 2023
    Music

    Today in 1956, 15-year-old John Lennon met 13-year-old Paul McCartney when Lennon’s band, the Quarrymen, played at a church dinner.

    Birthdays today start with David Rose, the composer of a song many high school bands have played (really):

    Nigel Pickering, guitarist of Spanky and Our Gang:

    (more…)

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  • Presty the DJ for June 14

    June 14, 2023
    Music

    Today in 1965, the Beatles released “Beatles VI,” their seventh U.S. album:

    Twenty-five years later, Frank Sinatra reached number 32, but probably number one in New York:

    Nine years and a different coast later, Carole King got her star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame:

    (more…)

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  • On that, we agree

    June 13, 2023
    US politics

    Robby Soave:

    Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a Republican, slammed former President Donald Trump over his handling of classified documents, saying that Trump—who is facing 37 felony charges—has no one to blame but himself.

    “He has shown himself, particularly in his post-presidency, to be completely self-centered, completely self-consumed, and doesn’t give a damn about the American people, if what the American people want isn’t best for him,” said Christie.

    Christie made these remarks during a CNN town hall with Anderson Cooper on Monday night. Christie is seeking the 2024 Republican nomination for the presidency; during his remarks, he laid into Trump, the frontrunner, as well as other rivals for the nomination—including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis—who have failed to condemn the actions of the former president.

    “He’s angry and he’s vengeful,” Christie said of Trump. “And he said ‘I will be your retribution.’ He wants retribution for himself. I’m convinced that if he goes back to the White House, the next four years will be all about him settling scores.”

    Christie said that he agreed with former Attorney General William Barr that the Department of Justice’s case against Trump was strong; he emphasized that Trump could have easily avoided prosecution by returning the documents at any point prior to the raid on Mar-a-Lago.

    When Cooper asked Christie why he thought Trump had kept the documents, he chalked it up to “vanity run amok, ego run amok.”

    Thus far, Republican primary voters have shown very little indication that they wish to part ways with Trump, their standard-bearer for the past eight years. The very conservative voters who comprise the GOP’s base view Trump extremely favorably.

    They don’t tend to feel the same about Christie. According to The New York Times:

    For the most part, Mr. Christie, who announced his campaign last week, has tried to reintroduce himself to the nation as the Republican candidate most willing to forcefully confront Mr. Trump.

    But Mr. Christie, who ran a short-lived campaign for president in 2016, has gained little traction in available polling this year and has a more unfavorable rating among Republican voters than any other candidate, according to a recent Monmouth University poll. And he occupies a relatively lonely lane. Most of the other 2024 hopefuls have shied away from much direct criticism of Mr. Trump.

    “It was like he was Voldemort from ‘Harry Potter’—nobody wanted to mention his name,” he said of a recent Republican campaign event, adopting a mocking voice. “Like, say his name, man, say his name.”

    For Christie to have a chance at the nomination, he must persuade Republicans that it’s time to throw Trump overboard—something they were not inclined to do after the 2018 midterms…or the 2020 election…or January 6…and so on.

    CNN itself reports:

    Christie — who endorsed Trump after dropping out of the 2016 primary and then became a close adviser to him ahead of the 2020 election — has said his past support was an error. Like in 2016, he is seeking to appeal to more traditionally conservative, establishment-friendly Republicans — and hopes to emerge as a foil to Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a rapidly growing field.

    Self-repudiation is a mistake unless you can do it with humor. ABC-TV’s Sam Donaldson once asked Ronald Reagan if he felt he bore any blame for the early 1980s recession, and Reagan answered …

    Christie (and other former Trump supporters) should say that they supported Trump because Hillary Clinton was an awful alternative (truth), and that Trump did some good things, but he did a lot of bad things and for the reasons Christie mentioned Trump is no longer fit to be president. Telling people they were wrong is not usually successful in changing hearts and minds.

    CNN also reports:

    Republican presidential candidate Chris Christie said the “single biggest thing” he could contribute to unify the country is to “get rid of Joe Biden and get rid of Donald Trump.”

    “They are past their sell-by dates, okay? It’s done. It’s time,” he said.

    Christie criticized Biden and Trump for bringing what he called “an old approach to this that is not constructive in our country.” He said that in 2020 Biden vowed to “bring us together” as a country and “then he ran far left and abandoned most of the country philosophically.”

    He said that if Biden gets a second term, what “he’ll do is keep doing what he’s doing, which is dividing the country even more than we were divided in 2020.”

    Christie said his approach to unifying is “very direct and very simple, that there is no bad opinion.”

    “You want to express your opinion in this country, express it. I want to hear it. And then everybody gets around the table and resolves our issues one at a time. The same way we used to do at dinner parties before the last eight or ten years,” the former governor said.

    Barack Obama (the president 10 years ago) was not really a uniter. Then again, the last president who was a uniter was … whom?

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  • How to beat Trump, and then Biden

    June 13, 2023
    International relations, US politics

    Noah Rothman:

    Fewer than 72 hours have passed since the unsealing of the federal indictment against Donald Trump on charges relating to his alleged mishandling of classified documents and his efforts to mislead investigators. The revelations in that document inspired pollsters to take the temperature of the Republican electorate, and their findings confirmed Trump critics’ worst suspicions: GOP voters are still yet to rethink their allegiance to the dominant figure in Republican politics.

    CBS News/YouGov pollsters found that 76 percent of GOP primary voters surveyed on Friday and Saturday dismissed the indictment as “politically motivated.” While 80 percent of all adults said Trump’s careless stewardship of classified materials represented a “national security risk,” only 38 percent of Republican voters agreed. Sixty-one percent of GOP voters said the news wouldn’t have any impact on their views of Trump, and 80 percent said the former president should still be able to serve in the White House if convicted.

    In the same time frame, an ABC News/Ipsos poll produced similar results. Just 38 percent of self-identified Republicans described the charges against Trump as “serious,” compared with 61 percent of the general public and 63 percent of self-identified independents. That survey found that the public’s views on Trump’s fitness for high office remain largely unchanged by the indictment, which is hardly shocking given the recency of the event and the voting public’s hardened views on the candidate.

    These results generated spasms of outrage among the GOP’s critics. How, they asked, could Republicans still stand by this man given the gravity of the allegations he is facing? Of course, recent history does indicate that Republican voters’ affinities for Trump are not conditional, and time alone will not suffice to convince the GOP-primary electorate that the revelations in this or any other forthcoming criminal indictments are disqualifying. If the details contained in the indictment are going to bite, Republican officials and the right-leaning media elites GOP voters trust will first have to press the case it makes against Trump.

    There would be precedent for that sort of attitudinal shift. A survey of some of the most divisive issues among Republicans suggests that GOP voters’ views are fluid and subject to revision — a condition that is masked by the absolutist bombast so often deployed by recent converts to the emerging orthodoxy. Take, for example, the issue of immigration.

    The conventional wisdom that emerged in the wake of Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection maintained that the GOP would have to soften its opposition to comprehensive immigration reform if it hoped to compete among Hispanic voters. That point of view was lent credence across the spectrum of right-wing influencers, from Sean Hannity’s primetime Fox News Channel program to much of the GOP conference in Congress. Accordingly, by 2014, six-in-ten self-described Republicans supported legislation that would establish legal residency for illegal migrants. All that changed with the rise of Donald Trump and his demonstration in 2016 that a hardline policy toward illegal immigration wasn’t an insurmountable obstacle to electoral success. By 2018, Republican voters indicated in polls that they not only opposed the legalization of the nation’s illegal population but wanted to reduce legal immigration into the U.S. Trump argued the case, and he won the argument.

    A similar phenomenon characterized Republican voters’ schizophrenia when it came to American intervention in the conflict in Syria. In April 2013, while Obama was seeking any and every available means to avoid acting on his self-set “red line” for military action against the Assad regime, 56 percent of Republicans supported strikes on Syrian targets. But by late summer of that year, Obama seemed to acquiesce to pressure and handed the issue off to Senate Democrats, who were prepared to authorize those strikes. That was when Republican opinion flipped. On the eve of the most confused speech of Obama’s presidency, in which he made the case for action in Syria while insisting Moscow had saved him from having to act on his convictions, only about 20 percent of Republicans still backed the strikes. In the interim, Republican influencers had turned against the project, and their supporters followed their leads.

    Early in his tenure, Donald Trump executed targeted strikes on Syrian facilities in response to a nerve-gas attack against civilians, which 86 percent of Republicans backed. Republicans were caught off guard in December of the following year, when Trump performed an about-face and sought the removal of U.S. forces from western Syria — a decision that prompted the resignation of Defense Secretary James Mattis. In the summer of 2018, nearly 70 percent of GOP voters endorsed U.S. involvement in the fight against “Islamic extremist groups in Iraq and Syria.” But when Trump flipped, so, too, did his loyalists with access to microphones, and Republican voters followed suit. By January 2019, only 30 percent of Republicans believed it would be the “wrong decision” to pull all U.S. troops from Syria.

    More recently, the debate over the proper level of U.S. support for Ukraine’s effort to resist Russia’s war of territorial expansion has followed a similar trajectory. Within the first month of the invasion, Republicans sided with the majority of Americans who believed Joe Biden hadn’t done enough to support Ukraine in advance of the Russian onslaught. Most Republicans joined Democrats and independents in support of a NATO-backed no-fly zone over Ukraine. But a familiar pattern emerged as the loudest voices in Republican politics agitated against U.S. support for Kyiv. By April of this year, majorities of Republican voters and GOP-leaning independents concluded that the war in Europe did not imperil vital U.S. interests and opposed providing material support for Ukraine’s resistance.

    None of this is to say that Republican voters are uniquely susceptible to influence; this is an observably bipartisan phenomenon. What it indicates is that these are complex issues that require deep historical knowledge and a background understanding of policy to fully grasp. As we might expect from representative government, voters outsource that work to their representatives and the experts in the world of politics whom they trust.

    For now, the indictment has failed to change Republican voters’ affection for Trump. But we can only expect that condition to pertain indefinitely if influential Republicans who have earned the confidence of GOP voters decline to popularize the case made against Trump in this indictment. And perhaps that’s what will happen. After all, Trump’s opponents are hostage to the shadows on the wall, too.

    History suggests that Republican voters’ views are not static. They can change provided the right inputs. The real question is what Trump’s rivals for the 2024 nomination will do. If they press the case against him, they’ll stand a chance of winning voters away from his side. If they instead take the path of least resistance, dismissing the significance of the DOJ’s indictment because making the case that Donald Trump jeopardized U.S. national security is just too hard, his odds of being the Republican nominee in 2024 will remain good.

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Steve Prestegard.com: The Presteblog

The thoughts of a journalist/libertarian–conservative/Christian husband, father, Eagle Scout and aficionado of obscure rock music. Thoughts herein are only the author’s and not necessarily the opinions of his family, friends, neighbors, church members or past, present or future employers.

  • Steve
    • About, or, Who is this man?
    • Facebook
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    • Adventures in ruralu0026nbsp;inkBack in June 2009, I was driving somewhere through a rural area. And for some reason, I had a flashback to two experiences in my career about that time of year many years ago. In 1988, eight days after graduating from the University of Wisconsin, I started work at the Grant County Herald Independent in Lancaster as a — well, the — reporter. Four years after that, on my 27th birthday, I purchased, with a business partner, the Tri-County Press in Cuba City, my first business venture. Both were experiences about which Wisconsin author Michael Perry might write. I thought about all this after reading a novel, The Deadline, written by a former newspaper editor and publisher. (Now who would write a novel about a weekly newspaper?) As a former newspaper owner, I picked at some of it — why finance a newspaper purchase through the bank if the seller is willing to finance it? Because the mean bank lender is a plot point! — and it is much more interesting than reality, but it is very well written, with a nicely twisting plot, and quite entertaining, again more so than reality. There is something about that first job out of college that makes you remember it perhaps more…
    • Adventures in radioI’ve been in the full-time work world half my life. For that same amount of time I’ve been broadcasting sports as a side interest, something I had wanted to since I started listening to games on radio and watching on TV, and then actually attending games. If you ask someone who’s worked in radio for some time about the late ’70s TV series “WKRP in Cincinnati,” most of them will tell you that, if anything, the series understated how wacky working in radio can be. Perhaps the funniest episode in the history of TV is the “WKRP” episode, based on a true story, about the fictional radio station’s Thanksgiving promotion — throwing live turkeys out of a helicopter under the mistaken belief that, in the words of WKRP owner Arthur Carlson, “As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly.” [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ST01bZJPuE0] I’ve never been involved in anything like that. I have announced games from the roofs of press boxes (once on a nice day, and once in 50-mph winds), from a Mississippi River bluff (more on that later), and from the front row of the second balcony of the University of Wisconsin Fieldhouse (great view, but not a place to go if…
    • “Good morning/afternoon/evening, ________ fans …”
    • My biggest storyEarlier this week, while looking for something else, I came upon some of my own work. (I’m going to write a blog someday called “Things I Found While Looking for Something Else.” This is not that blog.) The Grant County Sheriff’s Department, in the county where I used to live, has a tribute page to the two officers in county history who died in the line of duty. One is William Loud, a deputy marshal in Cassville, shot to death by two bank robbers in 1912. The other is Tom Reuter, a Grant County deputy sheriff who was shot to death at the end of his 4 p.m.-to-midnight shift March 18, 1990. Gregory Coulthard, then a 19-year-old farmhand, was convicted of first-degree intentional homicide and is serving a life sentence, with his first eligibility for parole on March 18, 2015, just 3½ years from now. I’ve written a lot over the years. I think this, from my first two years in the full-time journalism world, will go down as the story I remember the most. For journalists, big stories contain a paradox, which was pointed out in CBS-TV’s interview of Andy Rooney on his last “60 Minutes” Sunday. Morley Safer said something along the line…
  • Food and drink
    • The Roesch/Prestegard familyu0026nbsp;cookbookFrom the family cookbook(s) All the families I’m associated with love to eat, so it’s a good thing we enjoy cooking. The first out-of-my-house food memory I have is of my grandmother’s cooking for Christmas or other family occasions. According to my mother, my grandmother had a baked beans recipe that she would make for my mother. Unfortunately, the recipe seems to have  disappeared. Also unfortunately, my early days as a picky, though voluminous, eater meant I missed a lot of those recipes made from such wholesome ingredients as lard and meat fat. I particularly remember a couple of meals that involve my family. The day of Super Bowl XXXI, my parents, my brother, my aunt and uncle and a group of their friends got together to share lots of food and cheer on the Packers to their first NFL title in 29 years. (After which Jannan and I drove to Lambeau Field in the snow,  but that’s another story.) Then, on Dec. 31, 1999, my parents, my brother, my aunt and uncle and Jannan and I (along with Michael in utero) had a one-course-per-hour meal to appropriately end years beginning with the number 1. Unfortunately I can’t remember what we…
    • SkålI was the editor of Marketplace Magazine for 10 years. If I had to point to one thing that demonstrates improved quality of life since I came to Northeast Wisconsin in 1994, it would be … … the growth of breweries and  wineries in Northeast Wisconsin. The former of those two facts makes sense, given our heritage as a brewing state. The latter is less self-evident, since no one thinks of Wisconsin as having a good grape-growing climate. Some snobs claim that apple or cherry wines aren’t really wines at all. But one of the great facets of free enterprise is the opportunity to make your own choice of what food and drink to drink. (At least for now, though some wish to restrict our food and drink choices.) Wisconsin’s historically predominant ethnic group (and our family’s) is German. Our German ancestors did unfortunately bring large government and high taxes with them, but they also brought beer. Europeans brought wine with them, since they came from countries with poor-quality drinking water. Within 50 years of a wave of mid-19th-century German immigration, brewing had become the fifth largest industry in the U.S., according to Maureen Ogle, author of Ambitious Brew: The Story of American Beer. Beer and wine have…
  • Wheels
    • America’s sports carMy birthday in June dawned without a Chevrolet Corvette in front of my house. (The Corvette at the top of the page was featured at the 2007 Greater Milwaukee Auto Show. The copilot is my oldest son, Michael.) Which isn’t surprising. I have three young children, and I have a house with a one-car garage. (Then again, this would be more practical, though a blatant pluck-your-eyes-out violation of the Corvette ethos. Of course, so was this.) The reality is that I’m likely to be able to own a Corvette only if I get a visit from the Corvette Fairy, whose office is next door to the Easter Bunny. (I hope this isn’t foreshadowing: When I interviewed Dave Richter of Valley Corvette for a car enthusiast story in the late great Marketplace Magazine, he said that the most popular Corvette in most fans’ minds was a Corvette built during their days in high school. This would be a problem for me in that I graduated from high school in 1983, when no Corvette was built.) The Corvette is one of those cars whose existence may be difficult to understand within General Motors Corp. The Corvette is what is known as a “halo car,” a car that drives people into showrooms, even if…
    • Barges on fouru0026nbsp;wheelsI originally wrote this in September 2008.  At the Fox Cities Business Expo Tuesday, a Smart car was displayed at the United Way Fox Cities booth. I reported that I once owned a car into which trunk, I believe, the Smart could be placed, with the trunk lid shut. This is said car — a 1975 Chevrolet Caprice coupe (ours was dark red), whose doors are, I believe, longer than the entire Smart. The Caprice, built down Interstate 90 from us Madisonians in Janesville (a neighbor of ours who worked at the plant probably helped put it together) was the flagship of Chevy’s full-size fleet (which included the stripper Bel Air and middle-of-the-road Impala), featuring popular-for-the-time vinyl roofs, better sound insulation, an upgraded cloth interior, rear fender skirts and fancy Caprice badges. The Caprice was 18 feet 1 inch long and weighed 4,300 pounds. For comparison: The midsize Chevrolet of the ear was the Malibu, which was the same approximate size as the Caprice after its 1977 downsizing. The compact Chevrolet of the era was the Nova, which was 200 inches long — four inches longer than a current Cadillac STS. Wikipedia’s entry on the Caprice has this amusing sentence: “As fuel economy became a bigger priority among Americans…
    • Behind the wheel
    • Collecting only dust or rust
    • Coooooooooooupe!
    • Corvettes on the screen
    • The garage of misfit cars
    • 100 years (and one day) of our Chevrolets
    • They built Excitement, sort of, once in a while
    • A wagon by any otheru0026nbsp;nameFirst written in 2008. You will see more don’t-call-them-station-wagons as you drive today. Readers around my age have probably had some experience with a vehicle increasingly rare on the road — the station wagon. If you were a Boy Scout or Girl Scout, or were a member of some kind of youth athletic team, or had a large dog, or had relatives approximately your age, or had friends who needed to be transported somewhere, or had parents who occasionally had to haul (either in the back or in a trailer) more than what could be fit inside a car trunk, you (or, actually, your parents) were the target demographic for the station wagon. “Station wagons came to be like covered wagons — so much family activity happened in those cars,” said Tim Cleary, president of the American Station Wagon Owners Association, in Country Living magazine. Wagons “were used for everything from daily runs to the grocery store to long summer driving trips, and while many men and women might have wanted a fancier or sportier car, a station wagon was something they knew they needed for the family.” The “station wagon” originally was a vehicle with a covered seating area to take people between train stations…
    • Wheels on theu0026nbsp;screenBetween my former and current blogs, I wrote a lot about automobiles and TV and movies. Think of this post as killing two birds (Thunderbirds? Firebirds? Skylarks?) with one stone. Most movies and TV series view cars the same way most people view cars — as A-to-B transportation. (That’s not counting the movies or series where the car is the plot, like the haunted “Christine” or “Knight Rider” or the “Back to the Future” movies.) The philosophy here, of course, is that cars are not merely A-to-B transportation. Which disqualifies most police shows from what you’re about to read, even though I’ve watched more police video than anything else, because police cars are plain Jane vehicles. The highlight in a sense is in the beginning: The car chase in my favorite movie, “Bullitt,” featuring Steve McQueen’s 1968 Ford Mustang against the bad guys’ 1968 Dodge Charger: [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMc2RdFuOxIu0026amp;fmt=18] One year before that (but I didn’t see this until we got Telemundo on cable a couple of years ago) was a movie called “Operación 67,” featuring (I kid you not) a masked professional wrestler, his unmasked sidekick, and some sort of secret agent plot. (Since I don’t know Spanish and it’s not…
    • While riding in my Cadillac …
  • Entertainments
    • Brass rocksThose who read my former blog last year at this time, or have read this blog over the past months, know that I am a big fan of the rock group Chicago. (Back when they were a rock group and not a singer of sappy ballads, that is.) Since rock music began from elements of country music, jazz and the blues, brass rock would seem a natural subgenre of rock music. A lot of ’50s musical acts had saxophone players, and some played with full orchestras … [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CPS-WuUKUE] … but it wasn’t until the more-or-less simultaneous appearances of Chicago and Blood Sweat u0026amp; Tears on the musical scene (both groups formed in 1967, both had their first charting singles in 1969, and they had the same producer) that the usual guitar/bass/keyboard/drum grouping was augmented by one or more trumpets, a sax player and a trombone player. While Chicago is my favorite group (but you knew that already), the first brass rock song I remember hearing was BSu0026amp;T’s “Spinning Wheel” — not in its original form, but on “Sesame Street,” accompanied by, yes, a giant spinning wheel. [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi9sLkyhhlE] [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OxWSOuNsN20] [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9U34uPjz-g] I remember liking Chicago’s “Just You ‘n Me” when it was released as a single, and…
    • Drive and Eat au0026nbsp;RockThe first UW home football game of each season also is the opener for the University of Wisconsin Marching Band, the world’s finest college marching band. (How the UW Band has not gotten the Sudler Trophy, which is to honor the country’s premier college marching bands, is beyond my comprehension.) I know this because I am an alumnus of the UW Band. I played five years (in the last rank of the band, Rank 25, motto: “Where Men Are Tall and Run-On Is Short”), marching in 39 football games at Camp Randall Stadium, the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome in Minneapolis, Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Memorial Stadium at the University of Illinois (worst artificial turf I had ever seen), the University of Nevada–Las Vegas’ Sam Boyd Silver Bowl, the former Dyche Stadium at Northwestern University, five high school fields and, in my one bowl game, Legion Field in Birmingham, Ala., site of the 1984 Hall of Fame Bowl. The UW Band was, without question, the most memorable experience of my college days, and one of the most meaningful experiences of my lifetime. It was the most physical experience of my lifetime, to be sure. Fifteen minutes into my first Registration…
    • Keep on rockin’ in the freeu0026nbsp;worldOne of my first ambitions in communications was to be a radio disc jockey, and to possibly reach the level of the greats I used to listen to from WLS radio in Chicago, which used to be one of the great 50,000-watt AM rock stations of the country, back when they still existed. (Those who are aficionados of that time in music and radio history enjoyed a trip to that wayback machine when WLS a Memorial Day Big 89 Rewind, excerpts of which can be found on their Web site.) My vision was to be WLS’ afternoon DJ, playing the best in rock music between 2 and 6, which meant I wouldn’t have to get up before the crack of dawn to do the morning show, yet have my nights free to do whatever glamorous things big-city DJs did. Then I learned about the realities of radio — low pay, long hours, zero job security — and though I have dabbled in radio sports, I’ve pretty much cured myself of the idea of working in radio, even if, to quote WAPL’s Len Nelson, “You come to work every day just like everybody else does, but we’re playing rock ’n’ roll songs, we’re cuttin’ up.…
    • Monday on the flight line, not Saturday in the park
    • Music to drive by
    • The rock ofu0026nbsp;WisconsinWikipedia begins its item “Music of Wisconsin” thusly: Wisconsin was settled largely by European immigrants in the late 19th century. This immigration led to the popularization of galops, schottisches, waltzes, and, especially, polkas. [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yl7wCczgNUc] So when I first sought to write a blog piece about rock musicians from Wisconsin, that seemed like a forlorn venture. Turned out it wasn’t, because when I first wrote about rock musicians from Wisconsin, so many of them that I hadn’t mentioned came up in the first few days that I had to write a second blog entry fixing the omissions of the first. This list is about rock music, so it will not include, for instance, Milwaukee native and Ripon College graduate Al Jarreau, who in addition to having recorded a boatload of music for the jazz and adult contemporary/easy listening fan, also recorded the theme music for the ’80s TV series “Moonlighting.” Nor will it include Milwaukee native Eric Benet, who was for a while known more for his former wife, Halle Berry, than for his music, which includes four number one singles on the Ru0026amp;B charts, “Spend My Life with You” with Tamia, “Hurricane,” “Pretty Baby” and “You’re the Only One.” Nor will it include Wisconsin’s sizable contributions to big…
    • Steve TV: All Steve, All the Time
    • “Super Steve, Man of Action!”
    • Too much TV
    • The worst music of allu0026nbsp;timeThe rock group Jefferson Airplane titled its first greatest-hits compilation “The Worst of Jefferson Airplane.” Rolling Stone magazine was not being ironic when it polled its readers to decide the 10 worst songs of the 1990s. I’m not sure I agree with all of Rolling Stone’s list, but that shouldn’t be surprising; such lists are meant for debate, after all. To determine the “worst,” songs appropriate for the “Vinyl from Hell” segment that used to be on a Madison FM rock station, requires some criteria, which does not include mere overexposure (for instance, “Macarena,” the video of which I find amusing since it looks like two bankers are singing it). Before we go on: Blog posts like this one require multimedia, so if you find a song you hate on this blog, I apologize. These are also songs that I almost never listen to because my sound system has a zero-tolerance policy — if I’m listening to the radio or a CD and I hear a song I don’t like, it’s, to quote Bad Company, gone gone gone. My blonde wife won’t be happy to read that one of her favorite ’90s songs, 4 Non Blondes’ “What’s Up,” starts the list. (However,…
    • “You have the right to remain silent …”
  • Madison
    • Blasts from the Madison media past
    • Blasts from my Madison past
    • Blasts from our Madison past
    • What’s the matter with Madison?
    • Wisconsin – Madison = ?
  • Sports
    • Athletic aesthetics, or “cardinal” vs. “Big Red”
    • Choose your own announcer
    • La Follette state 1982 (u0022It was 30 years ago todayu0022)
    • The North Dakota–Wisconsin Hockey Fight of 1982
    • Packers vs. Brewers
  • Hall of Fame
    • The case(s) against teacher unions
    • The Class of 1983
    • A hairy subject, or face the face
    • It’s worse than you think
    • It’s worse than you think, 2010–11 edition
    • My favorite interview subject of all time
    • Oh look! Rural people!
    • Prestegard for president!
    • Unions vs. the facts, or Hiding in plain sight
    • When rhetoric goes too far
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