A group of UW students has put together something they believe is missing from Packer fandom — the Packer Rock Anthem.
The only thing about the song is that it doesn’t sound like my definition of rock — note the absence of guitar and bass — but sounds more like late ’80s or early ’90s pop — rather techno. Which is fine. Perhaps “Packer Techno Anthem” doesn’t sound as good.
Apparel, not in the Packers’ (dark) green and gold since this isn’t an official Packer project, is available as well:
Bleacher Report gives a provocative headline to an item from the Green Bay Press–Gazette’s Pete Dougherty:
Does Green Bay Even Need a Defense?
Green Bay not only needs a defense; the Packers have a defense. It is not, however, according to Daugherty, a very good defense, but it wasn’t a very good defense at this time last year either:
The Packers grew into a top defense in 2010 for many reasons, most importantly because several players emerged as key performers as the season went on.
The main question as the Packers hit their bye is whether the same thing will happen this year. It’s also worth asking whether their defense will need to be as good to win another Super Bowl, considering they have possibly the best offense in the league.
As a starting point, it must be noted that for all the yards the Packers have allowed, in important ways their defense is performing about as it did through seven games in 2010. This year’s Packers rank substantially worse in yards allowed (No. 27, to No. 18 last year), passing yards allowed (No. 31 to No. 14) and sacks percentage (No. 17 to No. 6), but they’re better in points allowed (No. 9 to No. 12), red-zone defense (No. 7 to No. 16) and interceptions (No. 4 to No. 6).
The only truly important stat in that paragraph is points, and, again, the Packers are better than they were a year ago. Passing yardage can be misleading because, if a team is behind, it is more likely to pass than run. Teams that are ahead all the time thus will face more passing, particularly of the prevent-defense dink-and-dunk variety.
I figured this out from high school football – specifically the 2003 Ripon Tigers, which gave up 15.2 yards and 258.8 yards per game. That sounds good but not great, but that’s because of their offensive statistics — 45.2 points and 454.9 yards per game — and, by the way, their record, 14–0. More significant than a team’s points per game, either on offense or defense, is the margin (offensive points minus defensive points) per game.
Here is proof from a six- or seven-game sample: The only undefeated team is the Packers, which are also number one in margin — 32.9 offensive points per game, 20.1 defensive points per game, for a difference of 12.8 points per game. The next four in margin per game are Baltimore, which is 4–2; San Francisco, which is 5–1; New Orleans, which is 5–2; and New England, which is 5–1. All of those teams are leading their divisions except for Baltimore, which is a half-game back of Pittsburgh.
Those five teams are all near the top of the NFL in offensive points per game — New Orleans is first, Green Bay second, New England is fourth, San Francisco is fifth and Baltimore is eighth. The defensive points per game rankings are different: Baltimore is first, San Francisco is second, Green Bay is 10th, New England is 15th and New Orleans is 17th.
Less than half a season isn’t a large sample, and this could be one of those statistical measures that reveals itself only at the end of a season, not in the middle. But judging from this half-season, it seems that, in the NFL, offense is indeed more important than defense, and that there is a more of a correlation to a team’s success in margin rather than in offense or defense.
Dougherty adds:
Of the most commonly cited statistics for judging a defense, total yards might be least telling. The one that matters most, aside from points, probably is opponent’s passer rating.
There, the Packers aren’t as good as they were seven games into 2010, when opposing quarterbacks had a rating of only 72.6. But at 79.3 this year, they still rank a notable No. 9 in the league.
“The formula for us right now is, as long as our quarterback continues to play the way he is, and if we can keep our (opponent’s) quarterback rating down into the 70s,” defensive coordinator Dom Capers said this week. “Aaron (Rodgers) right now is (125.7 points). That’s a pretty good differential. So I think that’s a winning formula.”
Just for comparison, Rodgers’ passer rating last year after seven games was 89.0, a 16.4-point differential from opponents, and the Packers were 4-3. This year, with a 46.4-point differential, they’re 7-0. …
For now, though, the Packers are giving up big yards but winning with turnovers and red-zone stops. There’s reason to wonder whether that eventually will bite them against a good team in a big game. Or maybe they’ll just outscore their defensive shortcomings when the games count most.
How important are turnovers and red-zone stops? Say a team gets the ball on its 20 and takes it to the opponent’s 10-yard line, where it then throws an end-zone interception. (Sound familiar, Kyle Orton?) Your defense has given up 70 yards, but more importantly, zero points, while adding one to its turnover margin and decreasing its red-zone scoring percentage.
Games are not decided by yards; they are decided by points, though obviously yards lead to points. We’ll see if the Packers can continue to emulate the 1983 Washington Redskins, which got to their second Super Bowl despite losing to Green Bay 48–47 and having a pass defense that called itself the “Pearl Harbor Crew.”
The Green Bay Packers Have the Best Owners in Football
Since I am one of those owners, I of course agree.
That headline begins Bloomberg BusinessWeek’s story about the Packers, the most unique franchise in professional sports:
The Green Bay Packers are a historical, cultural, and geographical anomaly, a publicly traded corporation in a league that doesn’t allow them, an immensely profitable company whose shareholders are forbidden by the corporate bylaws to receive a penny of that profit, a franchise that has flourished despite being in the smallest market in the NFL—with a population of 102,000, it would be small for a Triple A baseball franchise. Of all the original NFL franchises—located in places like Muncie, Ind., Rochester, N.Y., Massillon and Canton, Ohio, and Rock Island, Ill.—Green Bay is the only small-town team still in existence. The Packers have managed not merely to survive but to become the NFL’s dominant organization, named by ESPN (DIS) in 2011 as the best franchise in all of sports. …
When you talk to Packer management, you start to realize that success is a tribute to the careful, constant maintenance of two things: the product on the field and the community’s warm feelings about that product. “It starts with football,” says [President Mark] Murphy. “We structure the organization in a way that we can be successful on the field. But a big part of it is also remembering that this team has a special place in this community. We’re owned by this community. We can’t be perceived as gouging the fans.”
The Packers must constantly walk that fine line between profitability and community. Every other NFL franchise is controlled or entirely owned by one majority shareholder, and NFL rules prohibit otherwise. (The Packers’ ownership structure predates current NFL rules.) Ticket prices, concessions, parking, stadium naming rights—all of that is dictated at most NFL stadiums by whatever the owner feels the market will bear, and every additional dollar is profit into the owner’s pockets.
The Packers don’t operate like that. Take ticket prices: Even after a 9 percent bump this Super Bowl championship year, the highest-priced ticket is $83, lower than all but two other franchises. In contrast to other NFL venues and their garish, wraparound ad signage, Lambeau is as austere as a high school football stadium. …
Ultimately, the Packers are able to thrive in ways others cannot because the team is a cultural icon—a symbol of America’s love of the underdog who overperforms. The intensity of feeling at Lambeau every home game is common to only a handful of other pro sports venues in the country—Fenway Park before a playoff game might come closest. There is the game on the field, and then there is the sense of those 60,000 in attendance that they are involved in something bigger than the sport; they’re honoring a compact.
As he paces the sidelines before the kickoff, Mark Murphy is mindful of that heritage, that special bond between team and town that he is charged with carrying forward. “We’re stewards,” he says, looking up from the playing field to the fans filing into Lambeau. “We’re taking care of the Packers for the next generation.”
Sometimes, a picture really does say a thousand words:
And that begins a tradition of this blog’s predecessor blogs that of course must carry on — a schadenfreude-filled look at how the media of the Packers’ main rivals, Da Bears and the Vikings, react to the Packers’ beating Da Bears or the Vikings.
For those who don’t get the headline reference, watch:
Back in the 1990s,when the Packers were getting good and the Bears were moving in the opposite direction, it was enjoyable to read, first in dead-tree version and then online, the Chicago media go off on the Bears after losing to the Packers. Unlike the Wisconsin media, which is only occasionally critical, the Chicago media seems to get its jollies ripping apart the Bears.
As for their other rivals, a Twin Cities sportswriter who is approximately 3,000 years old once referred to the Packers’ “lemon and spinach” uniforms, which made me post a question: What does that make the Vikings’ uniforms, bruises and pus?
The Tribune’s David Waugh began after the first quarter:
Thanks to Jay Cutler throwing an interception and the offense looking generally out of synch, I can only guarantee this after the Bears‘ first quarter against the Packers.
The orange jerseys won’t be the hardest thing to look at Sunday.
The Trib’s Steve Rosenbloom should give part of his pay for Sunday to his headline writer:
No, wait, balance doesn’t mean a bad passing game and a bad running game
… This was embarrassing for a second straight week. I mean, this is an NFL offense?
The Bears couldn’t run and couldn’t pass. There’s your balanced offense.
Cutler was a mess. He threw two interceptions that counted and one that was called back. When Cutler did have time to pass, he missed or the receivers flat dropped the ball.
And remember, this came against a Packers defense that was giving up more than 400 passing yards a game.
Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz tried to run. For him, anyway. But the Bears couldn’t block it.
The Bears had 13 yards rushing, an average of 1.1 per carry. Don’t you get that much just by falling forward? …
The offense has to start all over. This isn’t even back to last season’s future. This is back to the start of the game’s creation. Lovie Smith needed to address his team after the game by saying, “Gentlemen, this is a football.’’
Sadly and obviously, the Bears can’t touch the Packers’ offensive talent, especially at wide receiver. In fact, the Bears don’t have a wideout who would dress for the Packers. Roy Williams can barely dress for the Bears, and Devin Hester apparently wants to amass as many penalties as receptions. …
I mean, name a Bears go-to play. Dare you.
OK, try this: Name a Bears go-to player. Dare you to do that, too.
Rosenbloom’s thought about the Bears’ WRINOs (Wide Receivers In Name Only) echoed mine during the game. The Packers’ fourth best wideout, James Jones, would be triple-covered if he played for Da Bears. The Bears let All-Pro center Olin Kreutz go to New Orleans, and traded tight end Greg Olsen, formerly one of the Bears’ most dangerous offensive weapons, to Carolina because Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz apparently has little use for tight ends. In contrast, consider how the Packers use Jermichael Finley, who also was a first-round pick. And meanwhile, the Bears persist in the delusion that Hester can be more than a kick returner.
Jay Cutler remains a shaky collection of talents, still prone to too many hold-your-breath throws. The rigid offense of Mike Martz is complicated and possibly antiquated. Blocking is all but nonexistent for the run game and tenuous at best when a pass is called. …
But, really. Somebody get open.
And when you do, don’t try to catch the ball with your face, or let it ricochet off your sternum. Neither tactic is particularly productive.
This is the receiving corps that had coaches and executives so excited, this bargain-basement collection of shrimps, wimps and gimps? …
Man coverage or zone coverage notwithstanding, it seemed like even the completions were near-misses, near-drops or near-picks. This has to stop.
During the summer, Martz called Roy Williams an “elite” receiver, and predicted that he’d be good for 70-80 catches this year. Martz also, I believe, called the Ford Pinto “stylish and safe,” referred to “Blues Brothers 2000” as “a towering cinematic achievement — a great, great American film,” and described Hostess Sno-Balls as being “rich in antioxidants.”
The Chicago Sun–Times’ Rick Morrissey passes on an unbelievable statistic:
Someone suggested to Cutler that surgically removing all the things in the Bears’ game plan that aren’t working and adding more of the good things (whatever those are) might help.
“It’s so hit and miss in what we’re doing well and what we’re not doing well that I don’t even know where to begin,’’ he said.
Three games into the season, that’s the scary part if you’re a Bear or have an emotional investment in the team. Where do you begin with the problems on offense? The Bears rushed for 13 yards on 12 carries Sunday, their lowest rushing total in more than 50 years. It came a week after they ran the ball only 12 times, one a Cutler scramble.
Is it possible for an NFL team to win with an offense so imbalanced that it wobbles?
“We’re 0-2 doing this, so it’s not looking very good,’’ Cutler said.
It’s so bad that coach Lovie Smith would be happy if the Bears got off the bus racewalking. …
But bear in mind that the Packers’ defense had been shredded in the first two weeks of the season. Sunday was an opportunity for the Bears to forget about their embarrassing offensive performance in New Orleans. Instead, they dropped balls, overthrew passes and committed penalties in earnest. Cutler threw two interceptions and would have had another if not for offsetting penalties.
The Bears had three yards of total offense in the third quarter. …
Matt Forte rushed nine times for two yards, which is almost as impossible as it sounds.
The Sun–Times’ Rick Telander compares and contrasts, and finds Cutler, who is one year older than Aaron Rodgers, wanting:
Here’s the bad news, Chicago: Aaron Rodgers is less beaten up than Jay Cutler, more victorious than Jay Cutler, younger than Jay Cutler, better than Jay Cutler.
So how’s your future lookin’, Bears?
Rodgers, the 27-year-old Green Bay Packers quarterback (Cutler is 28), led his team to a 27-17 win Sunday over the bumbling Bears at Soldier Field, and that may have been the good news.
The bad is that this Rodgers kid beat the Bears in the NFC Championship Game last season, led the Packers to the Super Bowl title in February, has beaten the Bears six of the eight times he has started and may only be getting better.
Who put the Bears and Packers in the same division, anyway?
Sadly, Rodgers is a young 27, having whittled twigs on the Green Bay sideline for his first three years in the league, nodding off as Father Time himself, Brett Favre, took all the starts.
Cutler, on the other hand, is a dog that has been hit with the frying pan a few too many times. In his five years-and-change career, he has been sacked 157 times, including five times last postseason and 14 times in three games this September.
Rodgers, on the other hand, has been sacked 129 times in his seven seasons and only five times this season.
Enough of the health thing.
How about the talent thing?
Cutler has an amazing arm and good mobility, even if his brain is sometimes suspect.
But Rodgers looks like a Hall of Famer in the making.
The comparisons between Rodgers and his predecessor have mercifully ceased since Super Bowl XLV. But I’ve figured out one: Rodgers is Brett Favre without the bonehead mistakes. Their ability to throw seems comparable. Since his first two years, Rodgers hardly gets sacked (though that is not always the quarterback’s fault), and he rarely throws interceptions; in fact, he hardly ever seems to force the ball where it shouldn’t go. Favre led the universe in almost-interceptions; he threw so hard that defensive players would drop interceptions or be hit between the numbers and be unable to hang on. That made Favre entertaining to watch, and certainly Favre made ordinary Packer teams better. It would be a master-of-the-obvious statement to say that Rodgers was the right draft pick, so I’m not going to say that.
As for Cutler, he probably in his heart of hearts envies Rodgers’ better offensive line and the Packers’ clearly superior receivers. The run game gets more mention than perhaps it needs to in today’s pass-to-daylight NFL. The bigger issue seems to be the Bears’ WRINOs who can’t consistently get open or make plays, and the offensive line that doesn’t seem to be able to run-block or pass-protect very well. And lack of talent is not the quarterback’s fault; it’s the general manager’s fault.
And now Twitter brings us some breaking news, first from tight end Tom Crabtree:
Sad to see all these folks in Chicago missing every finger except the middle. I think they’re trying to wave to us.
I looked into my backyard upon getting up this morning, and it was colored green and gold.
The season opener for the Super Bowl XLV champion Green Bay Packers is tonight against Super Bowl XLIV champion New Orleans. The Packers won Super Bowl XLV over Super Bowl XLIII champion Pittsburgh, 31–25.
(As I write this, by the way, I am planning no additional post today on President Obama’s much vaunted jobs speech tonight. Obama will say nothing he hasn’t already said, and nothing that in its proposed form will pass Congress. Those who watch the speech will be wasting your time.)
Before we move on to whether the Packers will be the NFC representative at Super Bowl XLVI, right down Interstate LXV from Chicago (which will not be visiting Super XLVI unless they buy tickets), we should pause to recall how truly amazing winning Super XLV was. Just getting to Super Bowl XLV required winning five consecutive games — the last two regular-season games and three road playoff games, two against teams that had beaten the Packers earlier that season.
The Packers limped into the playoffs with the sixth NFC seed, and no NFC sixth seed (I’m glad I’m writing this and not saying this) had ever gotten to the Super Bowl. Teams fight to win games so that they can host playoff games, not play them on the road, and the Packers had not won a single road playoff game since the 1997-season NFC Championship.
And this was after a regular season in which the Packers had (seemingly inexplicably) lost to NFC North doormat Detroit, lost a home game, and lost their best running back and tight end. To think the Packers, one of the youngest teams in the NFL, were a Super Bowl team in early January seemed like the little boy presented with a barn full of horse manure who digs in excitedly under the rationale that there has to be a pony in there somewhere.
Dallas defensive lineman Larry Cole once described a rookie quarterback’s taking the Cowboys to an improbable win as a “triumph of the uncluttered mind.” Maybe one of the youngest rosters in the NFL didn’t know they weren’t supposed to be able to get to the Super Bowl. Maybe this is the football gods’ payback to Packer fans for the 2007 season, when the Packers should have gone to the Super Bowl but did not after the unspeakable home NFC Championship overtime loss to the New York/Jersey Giants; they shouldn’t have even gotten to Super Bowl XLV, but now there is a fourth Lombardi Trophy at Lambeau Field.
Several things are now certain. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ 2009 season proved that he could play quarterback as well as any quarterback in the NFL. (He now has as many Super Bowl rings as Brett Favre.) Coach Mike McCarthy may look like a second-generation bar owner, but has not merely the technical expertise (including adaptability, given that without running back Ryan Grant the Packers may have had the worst running attack of the previous 28 Super Bowl champions) but the motivational art to win under difficult circumstances. (One of the greatest motivational moves in the history of the NFL came the night before Super Bowl XLV, when McCarthy had his players sized for their Super Bowl rings.) And after more than half a season of utter confusion, the Packers now know how to play the 3–4 defense (or coordinator Dom Capers’ diabolical variations thereof).
The reason no one has repeated as a Super Bowl champion since Denver won Super Bowls XXXII (which we won’t discuss here) and XXXIII is that, to quote a longtime sportswriter, winning one Super Bowl means you play 16 Super Bowls the next season. Inevitably some of the Super Bowl ring-wearers decide they had a bigger role in the team’s success than they actually did and head to (financially) greener passages. Add to the fact the kind of luck that follows around champions usually lasts just a season.
On the other hand, short of a Rodgers injury beyond one probably-going-to-lose-anyway game, could the Packers have had a more calamitous season injury-wise than 2010? The Packers’ leading rusher in 2010, Brandon Jackson, had all of 703 yards. The team averaged 100 yards rushing per game, 24th in the NFL, and was outgained on the season. (Somewhere Vince Lombardi is demanding “What the hell is going on out there?!”) The Packers’ offense ranked just ninth in yardage and 10th in scoring.
No Packer coach has gotten much of a reputation as being a defensive genius. (Lombardi, Mike Holmgren, Mike Sherman and McCarthy were all offensive coordinators before going to Green Bay.) But remember the axiom that offense wins games but defense wins championships, and consider that Capers’ 3–4 defense was fifth best in yardage and second best in points, and that the Packers were second best in turnover ratio. And, by the way, they played the second half of Super Bowl XLV without their defensive leader, cornerback Charles Woodson, and did not fall apart.
Go back two paragraphs to the paragraph about the offense, and consider that injured running back Ryan Grant and tight end Jermichael Finley are itching to contribute to a Super Bowl team. The Packers won a Super Bowl with a far-from-great offense that is likely to get better. The team appears to be reaching that promised land where the upward sloping graph of experience and the downward sloping graph of skill meet.
My crystal ball (which correctly predicted 6–10 in 2008 but refused to bow to the Super Bowl hype and predicted, uh, 8–8 last year) sees a 12–4 season, with losses at Chicago, Atlanta, Detroit and the New York/Jersey Giants. That should be enough to win the NFC North, even with rapidly improving Detroit and always-difficult Chicago. (Although the Bears could have a 2011 crash like the Vikings had a 2010 crash — literally in the case of the deflating Metrodome.)
Atlanta is probably the most skilled team in the NFC, and Philadelphia spent big on the free agent market to improve. They appear to be the Packers’ biggest roadblocks on the way to Super Bowl XLVI, along with possibly tonight’s opponent, the Saints. The conventional wisdom says one of them will get to Indianapolis and not the Packers. Then again, I didn’t get around to predicting a Super Bowl until the NFC Championship game, so call me a pigskin pessimist.
College football is supposed to be played on Saturdays, and NFL football is supposed to be played on Sundays.
So, of course, the Badgers and Packers are both playing Thursday, and at the same time, with UW against UNLV on ESPN and the Packers hosting Kansas City on a Packers preseason TV station near you. The Brewers are also playing Thursday, but they take on St. Louis at 3 p.m.
Thursday is the first time since 1981 that the Badgers and the Packers have been playing at the same time. The difference is that, while Thursday’s game against Kansas City will be forgotten as soon as the regular season starts Sept. 8, the two games Dec. 13, 1981, counted. While the Packers were beating New Orleans 35–7 (thanks to Lynn Dickey, who was 19 of 21 for 218 yards and five touchdown passes), the Badgers were playing in their first bowl game since the 1963 Rose Bowl, the 1981 Garden State Bowl in East Rutherford, N.J.:
The Packers missed the playoffs in 1981, but 1981 turned out to be a prelude for their first post-Vince Lombardi playoff season, 1982, as well as the immensely entertaining 1983 season (as in 10 of 16 games decided by a touchdown or less), in which the Packers went to the final minute of the final game of the season before having their playoff hopes dashed by Da Bears. 1982 was good to the Badgers too, with their first bowl win in program history, 14–3 over Kansas State in the Independence Bowl (known by UW Band members as the Inconvenience Bowl since it was played the night before finals were to start).
(We interrupt this football with a baseball bulletin: 1981 and 1982 were also the years the Brewers were playoff participants for the first time. The Brewers won the second half of the American League East in 1981 and took the first-half champion Yankees to five games before losing the first AL Division Series. One season later, the Brewers w0n the AL East on the last day of the regular season. The following Saturday, while Wisconsin was winning at Ohio State, the Brewers were on the way to overcoming a 2–0 deficit to win the five-game ALCS, before losing the World Series to St. Louis in seven games. There were no Badger/Brewer/Packer conflicts, because the NFL was on strike.)
This Badger–Packer simulheader (another made-up word of mine) is appropriate because this week former Badger coach Dave McClain is being inducted into the UW Athletic Hall of Fame. McClain turned the Badgers from occasionally exciting but mediocre into at least respectable — four consecutive winning seasons, three bowl berths and one bowl win between 1981 and 1984, including wins over (preseason number one) Michigan and Ohio State (three times), two schools for whom Wisconsin had served as a punching bag for more than a decade. The Badgers slipped backward to 5–6 in 1985, but with most starters returning, there was a good deal of optimism about 1986.
And then McClain died of a heart attack two days after the UW spring game. Defensive coordinator and interim coach Jim Hilles could lead the Badgers to only a 3–9 record, and then his non-interim replacement, Don Morton, “led” UW into three years of football that was so bad that Wisconsin State Journal sportswriter Vic Feuerherd used the term “BADgers” through one entire game story. (For some reason, when I spell “Morton” I usually leave out the T.)
Meanwhile, up U.S. 151 and U.S. 41 at Lambeau Field, the Packers had finally lost patience with coach Bart Starr and fired him after the just-missed 1983 season. Forrest Gregg, Starr’s right tackle, was a popular choice with the fans, especially because, unlike Starr, he came in with head coaching experience, having led Cincinnati to Super Bowl XVI. Gregg, however, proved worse than Starr as a general manager and coach; after back-to-back 8–8 seasons, Gregg decided to blow up the roster and start over, with the result being two terrible seasons, Packer players making as many bad headlines off the field as on the field (see Cade, Mossy), and then Gregg’s departure for his alma mater, Southern Methodist University. The Packers finally hired a separate general manager and coach after Gregg left, but they didn’t hire the right general manager and coach until 1991, when they hired Ron Wolf, who hired Mike Holmgren.
This could be quite a year for two obvious reasons. The Badgers finished as Big Ten champions and lost the Rose Bowl, which is preferable to not getting to the Rose Bowl, in 2010. That was not predicted this time last year.
And the Packers, needing to win six in a row, the last three on the road, just to get to the Super Bowl, did just that, and capped off the state of Wisconsin’s best football year ever by winning Super Bowl XLV.
Since the Packers won the Super Bowl despite significant injuries and the unprecedented (in the NFC) three-playoff-game route, one assumes fewer injuries will take place this year, meaning potentially more wins. The Badgers, meanwhile, are ranked 11th and even have, believe it or don’t, national championship whispers because of their new quarterback, Russell Wilson, the transfer from North Carolina State.
The Badger game, since it counts, is more important than the Packer game, which is the last preseason game. Nevertheless, this is why TV remote controls were invented.
Steve Prestegard.com: The Presteblog 