William F. Buckley Jr. said conservatives should favor the most conservative candidate most likely to win.

With that in mind, Examiner.com has bad news for Trump fans:

Suddenly analysts are beginning to consider the possibility that Trump really could win the Republican Party nomination for president. If so, as the above Electoral College map shows, Democrats may be elated. According to the most recent polling available, Trump would lose against Clinton 119-419 in a theoretical Electoral College matchup. …

First, the projection takes into account how Democrats and Republicans performed in the last three presidential elections. While past results do not always indicate future performance, the recent presidential elections give us a fairly good idea of how the demographics of each state favor or disfavor each party. More emphasis is put on the last presidential election in 2012 since that date is obviously more recent and, therefore, more likely to be accurate.

Second, trends for each state are considered. Trends are determined by looking at the last three presidential elections and also the changing demographics of each state.

Finally, the projection also accounts for any polling done within that state and the national polls done thus far. Unfortunately there are no polls available showing how Clinton would perform against Trump in individual states. What is available is national polls which show Clinton performing very strong against Trump. See below:

Clinton 59% v. Trump 35% (CNN Opinion Research 6/28)
Clinton 51% v. Trump 34% (Fox News 6/23)
Clinton 50% v. Trump 32% (Quinnipiac 5/26)

The Real Clear Politics of average of the three polls gives Clinton a 19.6 point lead over Trump. In comparison, Real Clear Politics average gives Clinton only a 3.8 point lead over Senator Rand Paul.

In 2012 President Obama won the Electoral College 332-206 despite only beating Mitt Romney by 3 points nationally. The last time a candidate won by double digits nationally was Ronald Reagan in 1984, who won by 18 points against Walter Mondale. In that election Reagan won the Electoral College 525-13. …

Analysis: As shown here a Trump versus Clinton matchup would really be over before it even began. By simply holding on to the states that Obama won in 2008 Clinton would already have over 270 votes, but given the strength of her polling against Trump she adds on to Obama’s safe state territory with North Carolina. …

Given a 14 point loss nationally to Clinton, Trump would only be assured of states that Mitt Romney by a very large margin in 2012. These states cover a vast amount of territory, but tend to have very few voters and therefore very few Electoral College votes. …

The strength of Clinton versus Trump really shows up in the “swing state” analysis. States that Republican can usually count on like Alaska, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina all the sudden become competitive if given Trump’s large deficit nationally. Trump is projected to hold on to Texas and Louisiana by slim margin, but otherwise Clinton takes states that Romney won by less than 14 points in 2008, giving Clinton an even bigger lead. The final result after adding up all the Clinton wins is 419 electoral votes.

When Barry Goldwater lost the Republican presidential nomination in 1960, and there was talk of conservatives’ boycotting the 1960 election, Goldwater told conservatives to “grow up.”

You need not approve of everything the GOP does. Change occurs slowly, in part because the Founding Fathers intended change to occur slowly, and in part because, conservatives must admit, substantial parts of the electorate don’t necessarily see things their way. But anyone who seriously believes there is no substantive or worthwhile difference between Hillary Clinton and any Republican not named Trump (who is not a Republican) has not been paying attention, whether or not you would vote in a primary for a non-Trump Republican.