Wisconsinites are about to witness the possible collision of Gov. Scott Walker and presidential candidate Scott Walker.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports:

In one of the first tests of his second term, Walker must decide by Feb. 19 whether to approve the $800 million project proposed by the Menominee tribe and backed by Hard Rock International, owned by the Seminole tribe of Florida.

As Walker considers the impact of a casino on Wisconsin, gambling opponents want to make sure he doesn’t forget Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucus to select presidential nominees. Important for any presidential bid, Iowa is particularly key for Walker, who spent part of his childhood there and now governs a neighboring state.

Tom Coates, executive director of Consumer Credit of Des Moines, wrote Walker after his November re-election and sent him a petition against gambling expansion he said had been signed by 600 Republicans, including U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) and both Republican National Committee members from Iowa, Steve Scheffler and Tamara Scott.

“As you are contemplating a presidential bid, I sincerely hope you will consider a ‘No Expanding Gaming’ policy,” Coates wrote.

A second letter came from Bob Vander Plaats, the president and chief executive officer of The Family Leader who is influential among social conservatives in Iowa.

“The increased societal problems of divorce, bankruptcy, debt, depression and suicide, and the additional cost to local governments to handle these problems and the crimes associated with gambling far outweigh any perceived advantages that may be provided by expanded gambling,” he wrote last month.

Vander Plaats, who has three failed bids for Iowa governor, led the successful effort to oust three state Supreme Court justices in 2010 after they ruled in favor of same-sex marriage. He chaired Mike Huckabee’s presidential campaign in Iowa in 2008, when he won the Republican caucus.

In December 2011, Vander Plaats boosted Rick Santorum’s campaign by endorsing him just before the caucus. Boosted by social conservatives in the Midwest state, Santorum won the Iowa contest by a handful of votes.

Huckabee’s and Santorum’s showings in the Iowa caucus gave their campaigns momentum in later primaries, but neither was ultimately able to clinch the party’s nomination.

Walker said last week, however, that he wouldn’t let his casino decision be influenced by his potential campaign, noting that he has delayed it for more than a year — pushing it past his November re-election — while his administration studies it.

“If it was based purely on politics, I could have made that decision a long time ago,” Walker said of the casino decision.

“I’ve taken the full amount of time and I’ve actually removed the political decision, whether it’s politics here in Wisconsin or politics anywhere else … to make sure the decision here is really based on what’s in the best interests of the hardworking taxpayers of Wisconsin.”

Michael Beightol, a spokesman for the Menominee, said the tribe sees the governor as engaged on the issue and believes he will make his decision based on what is good for Wisconsin.

“We’re not worried at all about anything that takes place in Iowa because the governor is focused on the people of Wisconsin,” he said. …

Social conservatives matter for any Republican candidate in Iowa and couldbe important supporters for Walker, a Baptist minister’s son who can tout his record opposing abortion.

The Forest County Potawatomi, whose Milwaukee casino is the most lucrative one in Wisconsin, have been major political contributors in the state but appeared to stay on the sidelines during last year’s race for governor.

That strategy could potentially change if Walker approved the Kenosha casino plan that is bitterly opposed by the Potawatomi.

When Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle ran for re-election in 2006, the Potawatomi poured at least $1 million into the Greater Wisconsin Committee, a liberal group that supported Doyle and other Democrats.

The tribe, which wins about $400 million annually from gamblers, gave the Republican Governors Association more than $160,000 from July 2011 through 2013.

In addition, the Potawatomi are already withholding a $25 million gambling payment to the State of Wisconsin, further complicating a challenging state budget picture here.

Walker has said he’s worried that approving the Kenosha casino could further endanger state finances.

As for Iowa, that state has long had racetracks and riverboat gambling, so many voters there are used to the idea, said Chuck Laudner, a former executive director of the Iowa Republican Party. But that doesn’t mean the issue can be overlooked.

“Six hundred people putting their name on a letter shows you how serious they are about an issue,” said Laudner, who backed Santorum in the 2012 race.

But, he added, other issues are likely to dominate the caucus campaign in Iowa a year from now, citing as possible examples immigration, education and the United States’ relationship with Israel.

At the same time, Vander Plaats is influential among a key slice of Iowa voters.

“It’s an endorsement everybody’s going to be seeking, and seeking probably for several months,” Laudner said.

As a social libertarian, I wouldn’t be seeking Vander Plaats’ endorsement, but that’s just me. Someone on Facebook pointed out the willingness of Republicans to use the law to enforce their own beliefs on others, just like Democrats, and that’s hard to argue otherwise here.

As for the merits of the expansion, I’m not sure how I feel about that. The claimed economic benefits are unconvincing, because I suspect the number of people who want to gamble are already gambling, so a Kenosha casino (or the proposed Shullsburg casino) will mean less business for all the casinos. Perhaps Walker shouldn’t care about that.

Back in 1993, state voters decided how they felt about gambling in a seven-part referendum. The votes basically indicated that voters, by comfortable margins, favored as much gambling as was legal at that point (including dog racing, which is gone now), but not more than that. I’m not sure that adding a casino would really be an expansion of gambling, since it’s a new place to gamble and not a new form of gambling. Whether you consider another casino to be expanding gambling might make the decision for you on supporting or opposing the casino.

I’m not sure Vander Plaats is going to make much difference anyway. If social conservatives are that powerful in the Iowa GOP, one of their favorites will win the caucus. Which didn’t help Santorum in 2012, Huckabee in 2008, Bob Dole in 1988 and George H.W. Bush in 1980 get the GOP nomination.