First, some music for the day:

Chris Lempesis has a somewhat obvious recipe for getting to Super Bowl XLIX today:

The Seattle Seahawks have lost once since late October. They’ve won seven games in a row and their defense has allowed 56 points – or eight points per game, if you want to make it sound even scarier – in that span.

They have maybe the best home-field advantage in the game. It’s certainly the loudest.

They are the defending world champions and they seem completely and totally focused on winning it all again this year, further cementing their status as a potential dynasty.

Still, the Seahawks are not perfect. They have, in fact, lost some games this year. They’ve even struggled at times in victories.

For this article, seven Seattle games were studied. Those games were its four losses (to San Diego, Dallas, St. Louis and Kansas City), plus close wins over Carolina and San Francisco and a close-for-three-quarters rematch against Carolina in the divisional round last weekend.

In studying those games, some definite statistical trends emerged. To varying degrees, these things could and should give Packers fans hope that Green Bay can pull off the upset.

Perhaps the biggest thing the Packers must do is stay committed on the ground, even if it’s not always working.

In the seven games studied, only once did a team not have at least 30 rushing attempts against Seattle. That would be St. Louis, who defeated the Seahawks on October 19. The Rams still ran it 27 times, though, so they came fairly close.

Interestingly enough, even though all of those teams made a concerted effort to pound the rock, not all of them had big days on the ground.

The Rams averaged just 3.8 yards per carry, for example, finishing with 102 yards rushing. The Chargers, who beat Seattle on September 14, only had 101 yards on 37 carries (2.7 yards per attempt).

In their first meeting with Seattle, on October 26, the Panthers averaged just 3.7 yards per attempt, running it 31 times for 114 yards.

The point is, you have to keep trying with the run game. You may not rack up big yardage, but by sticking with it, it at least gives you a chance to wear down that defense, even slightly.

The Packers didn’t really do this in their week one loss at Seattle, only running the ball 21 times. In their three other losses this season, they didn’t, either, never topping more than 24 carries in any of those games (the 24 carries came against Buffalo).

In their best three wins of the season – New England, Detroit and last week against Dallas – they did, running the ball at least 29 times in each of those games.

So keep an eye on 30 – it could be a big number Sunday.

Another big number to watch is two, as in sacks allowed.

Five of the seven teams that gave the Seahawks trouble surrendered two sacks or less in those games.

Green Bay’s offensive line has been perhaps the best in the game since its bye week, so the Packers have the unit to pull this off.

Aaron Rodgers has only been sacked five times in the team’s last four games, so that’s a very good sign. With Rodgers still nursing an injured calf, the o-line will have to turn in another sterling showing Sunday.

Staying committed to the running game and keeping your quarterback upright tends to have a nice side effect, too: You find yourself in more manageable third downs. When you are in those spots against a ferocious defense like Seattle’s, you pretty much have to convert at a sizeable clip.

In the seven games studied, five of those teams converted on at least 40 percent of their third-down attempts. Only Carolina, who went 2-of-10 on third downs in the first meeting between the teams, really struggled in that department.

Green Bay did well here in week one, hitting on 6-of-12 third downs, and in the end, it didn’t mean much. For the Packers to have any chance, they will have to duplicate that type of showing Sunday. Good news on that front – Green Bay is 17-of-27 (63 percent) on third down over its last two games.

If all of these things work in Green Bay’s favor, it will have a very good chance at winning the time of possession battle.

Again, five of the seven teams who gave Seattle trouble this year won that category. That helps not only the offense, but it can be a massive boost for Green Bay’s defense, as well.

The Seahawks are not known for their offense, but it can be as explosive as any offense in the league at times, so it’s best to keep that group on the sidelines for as long as you can.

It also limits Seattle’s opportunities to wear Green Bay’s defense down with its bruising ground game. Seattle held the edge in time of possession, 33:20-26:40, in the week one matchup. That probably can’t happen again if Green Bay wants to win.

Another thing that can’t happen is failing to convert in the red zone.

Seattle’s first game with Carolina is an excellent example. The Panthers lost, 13-9, and a huge reason for that was their 0-for-3 showing in the red zone. Convert even once there and Carolina likely wins. In the other six games studied, the opposition went 15-for-20 in the red zone (75 percent).

It’s hard to even reach the red zone against Seattle, especially lately, so when Green Bay gets there Sunday, it’s fair to say it will have to cash in on at least 75 percent of its chances, if not more.

The Packers have been close to that number in their last two games, going 5-of-7 in the red zone (71.4 percent). Field goals just don’t get it done against these guys.

Winning the turnover battle and getting to the quarterback are always important, especially this time of year, but in an interesting twist, that may not be absolutely crucial for Green Bay in terms of winning.

Teams gave Seattle trouble this season and didn’t necessarily do well in either of those categories. In only four of the seven games did the opponent either win or tie the turnover battle and only twice did those teams have more than two sacks.

That’s not to say Green Bay shouldn’t put massive effort into winning these categories, because of course it should. But there could be at least a small amount of wiggle room here.

When you add all this up, you get a fairly clear picture of what Green Bay will have to do to win Sunday.

The Packers don’t need to rely on gimmicks or tricks or anything crazy, really. They just have to play smart, patient football and consistently cash in on opportunities when they arise.

That last paragraph seems like master-of-the-obvious stuff, but teams usually do win big games by doing the obvious stuff, particularly when playing a stout defense like the Seahawks.

Fans pessimistic about today might be placing too much import on the season-opening loss to Seattle, because, Cheesehead TV notes, the Packers playing today aren’t the same team that opened the season for these reasons:

1. Clay Matthews at Inside Linebacker

It’s no secret the success the Packers have had on defense since the post-bye role expansion of Matthews to include inside linebacker, particularly their run defense.

At the season’s midpoint, it ranked dead last in the NFL—32nd—allowing more than 150 yards per game on the ground. But by the end of the regular season, the run defense climed up to 23rd in the NFL, giving up 119.9 yards per game.

Matthews and the rest of the Packers run defense will have to be at its best as they face the league’s No. 1 rushing offense with the Seahawks rumbling for an average of more than 170 yards per game.

It’s very possible Matthews will also be used as a spy on Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson, the NFL’s 16th leading rusher, gaining 849 yards on the year.

2. Sam Barrington’s Role Expands While A.J. Hawk’s and Brad Jones’ Contracts

The starters at inside linebacker Week 1 for the Packers were Hawk and Jones, both of whom have received demotions since that time.

Although they still play small roles on the Packers defense, Hawk has been relegated primarily to the base 3-4 defense while Jones plays almost exclusively in the team’s dime look.

Back during Week 1, Hawk and Jones received the lowest grades on the Packers defense from ProFootballFocus.com, both players guilty of poor run fits, missed tackles and inadequate pass coverage. Jones, in particular, was also flagged for two penalties.

Barrington, meanwhile, has stepped up as the Packers’ inside linebacker in the Packers’ nickel defensive package, playing an average of 46 snaps per game from Week 13 onward.

Even though Barrington has been prone to miscues too, they’ve been far less glaring than Hawk and Jones. And the physical presence Barrington brings to the Packers defense has made a noticeable impact.

3. Julius Peppers Kept Fresh

In Weeks 1 through 15, Peppers played no fewer than 50 snaps per game on both defense and special teams.

The cumulative effect of such high snap counts appeared to have taken a toll as Peppers failed to record a single sack during a five-game stretch ending Week 15.

In the Packers’ last three games, including playoffs, Peppers has played 32, 35 and 37 snaps, keeping him fresher and more effective. In those three games Peppers has eight tackles, three sacks, three forced fumbles and two deflected passes.

The Packers have found a formula that works for the 34-year-old Peppers, one that figures to continue on Sunday as the hybrid linebacker/defensive end looks for the first Super Bowl championship of his 13-year career.

4. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix Goes Full-Time at Safety, Micah Hyde at Slot

Although the first round draft pick of the Packers has played in every game this season, Clinton-Dix didn’t make his first start until Week 7 when he became a full-time player on defense.

Clinton-Dix took over for Hyde at the free safety position, which has benefitted both players. Clinton-Dix has been the better safety while Hyde has settled into his comfort zone as a slot cornerback.

Following the bye week, Hyde took over the nickel cornerback responsbilities, pushing Casey Hayward into dime duty.

Since the bye week, Hyde has grabbed both of his interceptions, broke up six of his seven passes and wrapped up his only sack.

5. More Man-to-Man Coverage by the Cornerbacks

Yet another bye-week adjustment, the Packers have started to committ safety Morgan Burnett to the box more frequently, aiding in stopping the run.

At the same time, they’ve also increased their rate of blitzes under defensive coordinator Dom Capers as outlined by Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

His five-man pressure numbers on pass plays went from 36.2% in Games 1-8 to 39.3% in Games 9-16, and his all-out pressure (more than five rushers) rate almost doubled from 5.7% to 9.2%.

More responsibility has fallen on the shoulders of the Packers cornerbacks to play more man-to-man coverage with Clinton-Dix acting as the deep safety, providing Cover 1 responsbilities over the top.

As a result, the Packers have given up fewer explosive, big plays in the passing game and have only allowed three wide receivers to gain over 100 yards this season. …

7. Offensive Line Finds Continuity

Back during Week 1, Bryan Bulaga went down with a knee injury 20 snaps into the game and was replaced by Derek Sherrod in the lineup.

The Packers’ new right tackle proceeded to allow a fourth-down sack, turning the ball over on downs and then gave up a strip-sack, recovering the ball in the end zone for a safety.

Green Bay had to endure one more game without Bulaga in Week 2, but he’s been back in the lineup ever since as the Packers have had the same starting five on the offensive line for 15 straight games.

Continuity on the offensive line has been evident. They’ve allowed 30 sacks on the season, their fewest since 2007. And they’ve also opened up holes for Eddie Lacy, allowing him to gain 100-plus yards from scrimmage in each of the last 10 games, the longest streak in team history.

8. Third, Fourth, Fifth Receiving Options Emerge

The Packers aren’t worried about Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, but the concern all season has been for other options to emerge when opponents take away the Packers’ top receiving threats.

Back during Week 1, not a single wide receivers outside of Nelson or Cobb caught a pass. Since that time, rookie Davante Adams has taken hold of the No. 3 wide receiver job and hasn’t let go.

Adams has been up and down, going through an especially rough patch during the month of December, but he stepped up big time in the Packers divisional round playoff win over the Dallas Cowboys when quarterback Aaron Rodgers identified a mismatch and targeted him 11 times, catching seven for 117 yards and a touchdown.

The Packers have also struck a comfortable balance with Andrew Quarless and Richard Rodgers at the tight end position with both players catching touchdown passes in the win over the Cowboys.

9. Lesson Learned from Avoiding Richard Sherman

Not unlike the scrapping of the “Quad” on defense, the Packers learned a valuable lesson on the offensive side of the football in Week 1, knowing they can’t be one dimensional and throw the football to only one side of the field.

“We’re a no-huddle offense, and my thought was—and I told Jordy (Nelson) in the game plan—just line him up on the left side,” explained McCarthy on Monday. “We thought Richard would come over there and guard him on the left side. That didn’t happen.”

Aaron Rodgers threw just one pass to the right side of the field beyond the line of scrimmage for a gain of just two yards. The Packers plan to adjust accordingly.

“It just depends on who’s open,” said Rodgers. “It’s always important to throw it to the right and throw it to the left a little bit.”

10. Rookies Become Battle-Tested

Outside of center Corey Linsley, who did an admirable job making his first career regular-season start in Week 1, the other rookies on the Packers roster weren’t ready for primetime.

As described above, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix hadn’t yet become a full-time starter. Davante Adams played just nine snaps on offense in the season opener. Richard Rodgers played 20.

Each of these first-year players have gone on to play key roles for the Packers this season, and they’re light years ahead of where they were back in September.

Even the role players, such as defensive lineman Mike Pennel and linebacker Jayrone Elliott, weren’t trusted to even be on the 46-man active roster back during Week 1. Now they’re week-in, week-out contributors.

I’m pretty sure the Packers won’t win today, which will bring on the Dead of Winter in Wisconsin. (Winter starts Thanksgiving weekend and runs until the end of Packer season; the Dead of Winter runs until Easter.) I hope I’m wrong about the Packers today.