Brian Fraley of Right Wisconsin asks:

In the next few days, we’re expected to hear the official announcement that Special Elections will be held in the 21st, 69th and 70th Assembly Districts. Are the communities of South Milwaukee, Abbotsford and Wisconsin Rapids ready for localized versions of the Capitol Chaos?

The following are expected to announce their resignations from the State Assembly: Republican Assembly Majority Leader Scott Suder (expected to land at the Public Service Commission), Republican legislator Mark Honadel (rumored to be heading to the private sector) and Democratic State Representative Amy Sue Vruwink (who could land at the Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection).

This could set up three simultaneous special elections in the fall. There is a strong likelihood that at least one partisan nomination would be contested in each seat, meaning the primary and general election dates for each race could be set for the same dates.

So with a dozen or more candidates vying for (at least) three vacancies, can the residents of central and southeast Wisconsin expect sit ins, sing-a-longs, and screaming guys in pink dresses at candidate forums this fall?

Given the excessively fractious state of state politics (and I remain amazed this hasn’t happened in this state … yet), Fraley’s prediction seems a certainty.

The better questions are (1) what difference will the protests make, and (2) what difference will the elections make? Between the 2010 state elections and the 2012 state elections, Democrats spent tens of millions of dollars and utterly failed to change the 2010-to-2012 results. Sen. Dan Kapanke (R–La Crosse) lost, but Republicans gained a seat right back when Rep. Tom Tiffany (R–Hazelhurst) replaced retiring Sen. Jim Holperin (D–Conover). I suspect the protesters changed as many minds for them as changed minds to vote against them.

Republicans are comfortably in control in the Assembly. Of those seats, Suder’s may be as close to a swing seat as exists, meaning the Democrats might see their minority grow by one, and I wouldn’t necessarily lay money on that, given 2010 redistricting. Elections before they’re regularly scheduled do give the winner the incumbent’s advantage, but the incumbent party’s advantage is already built in.