Contrary to what my headline says, there is more than one dirty little secret of the recall of Gov. Scott Walker and Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch.

The two words you are unlikely to hear between now and June 5 out of the mouth of Tom Barrett is the words “collective bargaining.” We know that is what the recall is about, not job numbers, not state finances, not what Walker told one of his contributors (who happens to be a significant employer in the state), not the alleged “war on women,” not anything else. Anyone who says otherwise is … being disingenuous.

John Torinus lets us in on the other dirty little secret:

The impact of the election on Act 10 may be larger in the minds of some voters than political realities portend.

That is true even if the Democrats take back the state Senate and the governorship, because it takes a majority in both houses and the governor’s pen to make or reverse a law.

And, whatever happens on June 5, Jeff Fitzgerald will still be speaker of the assembly. He won’t be speaker after January 2013, because he is giving up his assembly seat to run for the U.S. Senate, but he will be speaker until then.

While he and the Republicans control that body, there is no way they are ever going to agree to undo the key elements of Act 10, especially the limits on collective bargaining at the state and local levels.

Further, with a 20-seat margin going into the fall elections, it is highly unlikely that the Democrats will regain control of that chamber in this cycle. The coattails of Barack Obama may or may not be long in November, but they need to take away 10 more seats. That’s a very tall order, especially since the GOP-controlled legislature wrote the district maps to their advantage.

Nor will there be another recall that involves the assembly. That house is mostly immune to recall, because the seats are only for two-year terms, and members must be in office for at least a year before recall process can start. Unions and Democrats could launch a recall of Republican assemblymen in 2014, but why do that when they are up for reelection in November 2014 anyway?

Thus, Act 10 looks to be around until at least January 2015, the earliest a Democratic majority could take over the Assembly.

Meanwhile, the savings from the escape from collective bargaining continue to mount. They have been estimated at more than $1 billion already in the 3000-plus units of local government. As that total climbs, and it will climb, the electorate will become more interested in its durability. …

In summary, a stampede has been unleashed in the management of public employee plans, mostly with no harm done to the quality of health care. Indeed, the argument can be made that the new model delivers better health care.

Could these massive savings and fundamental change in benefit management been accomplished with collective bargaining been in place? Highly unlikely. Change-resistant unions give ground only slowly.

So, whether Gov. Scott Walker survives his recall, or whether the state senate, now in a dead tie at 16-16, flips to the Democrats, Act 10 is going to get a chance to prove itself for at least more three years.

Torinus claims municipalities are only in the second of four rounds of cost savings in employee benefits. After forcing public employees to pay more for their benefits, and bidding out health insurance, school districts now will be switching to consumer-driven health plans, featuring high deductibles tied to health savings accounts, he predicts. Larger school districts may even follow large employers and set up their own on-site health clinics.

The other reason why the Act 10 reforms may be in place even beyond 2015 is that the reforms have allowed municipalities and their governing bodies to reestablish balance between management and labor. (In other words, as with nonunion employers, for which most Wisconsin taxpayers work.) Having been given authority over their employees’ employee benefits, I wonder how many city councils, village boards, town boards, school boards and those municipalities’ top administrators are going to want to give back that authority. In other words, whether or not Walker is recalled, Act 10 may not be recalled.