James Pethokoukis believes the presidential election might be decided between our 20th wedding anniversary and Halloween, because of this chart:

This may be as good as it gets. Sputter-speed growth of around 2% and a moribund labor market. As the above chart suggests, the recovery is losing momentum. …

Wait, the second half will be “more difficult” than the first? We might be lucky to have 2% growth in the first half. The econ team at Citigroup seems equally as sober: “The 1Q GDP data, a month of rising jobless claims, and likely back-to-back moderate gains in non-farm employment should dampen remaining optimism that 2013 would be the year of decisive growth acceleration in the U.S. Why should any other quarter in 2012 be markedly better than 1Q?”

And given the reluctance of big banks to make U.S. recession calls, I have to think that plenty of these folks are worrying we might get a negative quarter at some point this year. Imagine the political shock wave if, say, the third quarter dipped even a smidgen. To use President Obama’s favorite analogy, the U.S. economy would be back in the ditch. And that report would be released by the Commerce Department on Oct. 26, just 11 days before the election.

Slowing economic growth is incompatible with reducing the unemployment rate below Obama’s promised ceiling of 8 percent. (The last unemployment report before the election is Nov. 2.) Then there’s the issue of gas prices, which bumped against the $4-per-gallon ceiling well before the summer driving season. Gas prices over $4 per gallon are incompatible with positive economic growth.

If all that plays out as predicted, no voter will be able to answer this famous pre-election question in the affirmative: